Trending Up (Part 2)
Doran Libin
2015-02-09
Looking at the rest of the players with stats on the rise down the stretch…
Trending Up (Part 2)
Part 2 of Trending Up looks at players from Los Angeles to Winnipeg who are picking up their pace heading into the home stretch of the 2014-15 NHL season. If there's a common thread among them, it's that they've either started to shoot the puck more or are responding to having been given an opportunity that wasn't previously available. Let's get to the list!
Los Angeles
Anze Kopitar – (Pre-January – 26 pts in 35 gms, Jan/Feb – 14 pts in 14 gms)
Kopitar's point per game January and February has come on the back of a run of improved percentages. This would be concerning except for the fact that even with the recent bumps Kopitar still isn't back to his career averages, meaning he could maintain up his recent scoring pace. Something to watch out for though is Kopitar has been on the ice for significantly fewer shots for since the beginning of February.
Dustin Brown – (Pre-January – 12 pts in 28 gms, Jan/Feb – 9 pts in 14 gms)
Brown carried his struggles from last season into the first chunk of 2014-15 and, along with Mike Richards, had been labeled as one of the Kings' albatross contracts. But recently Brown has gone from third liner back to playing with Kopitar and Gaborik on the Kings' top line. With the promotion, Brown has been on the ice for more shots and his on-ice shooting percentage has unsurprisingly gone up as well. This trend should see Brown continue to amass points at a much improved pace, although most likely not quite back to sustained levels from a few seasons ago.
Minnesota
Mikael Granlund – (Pre-January – 11 pts in 25 gms, Jan/Feb – 3 pts in 5 gms)
It may be a bit early, but since Granlund's return from injury his rate of production has been significantly improved. This can be partially attributed to the fact that he's been playing with Zach Parise and Thomas Vanek (more on him below) – a line with intriguing potential. The key will be getting both Vanek and Parise enough shots, as since the reunion of this line Parise has been a little greedy in that area.
Thomas Vanek – (Pre-January – 22 pts in 35 gms, Jan/Feb – 9 pts in 16 gms)
January was the first month this season that Vanek, a career volume shooter, averaged more than three shots per game. That needs to continue for Vanek to score at something remotely approaching the levels many expected entering this season. That return to a focus on firing pucks at the net enabled Vanek to have a stronger January despite only scoring on seven percent of his shots.
Devan Dubnyk
Dubnyk is the only goalie that appears in the 'Trending Up' series; as his numbers simply cannot be ignored. Poor goaltending haunted the Wild during the first half of the season, but that has changed since Dubnyk's arrival. In the nine games Dubnyk has played for the Wild he has seven wins, four shutouts and a SV% approaching 95%. No one is pretending those numbers can continue, but he's poised to be a great own for the rest of the season.
Nashville
Colin Wilson – (Pre-January – 20 pts in 34 gms, Jan/Feb – 15 pts in 16 gms)
Somebody has been really happy since Mike Fisher's return. Wilson's hot streak actually extends back to December yet somehow he has just seemed to keep get hotter, much like Nashville's Moneypenny. But watch out, as Wilson will not score on one out of every five shots for the rest of the season; but his even-strength on-ice shooting percentage over the hot streak has not been nearly as ridiculous. Wilson is not a point per game player but feel free to look this gift horse in the month as long as Mike Fisher is healthy. Just like everyone knows bologna is spelled O-S-C-A-R M-E-Y-E-R spark is spelled M-I-K-E F-I-S-H-E-R.
Matt Tennyson – (Pre-January – 1 pt in 9 gms, Jan/Feb – 7 pts in 14 gms)
There is a buyer beware factor with Tennyson in that he's getting his opportunity as a result of the rash of injuries to the Sharks' backend. But Tennyson is taking full advantage, averaging a point every two games of late. He's even carved out steady minutes on the Sharks power play, taking Matt Irwin's spot, and now averaging almost two minutes of power play time each game. With Justin Braun likely out for another month, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic on IR with a cold (per Fantrax), Tennyson has a legitimate chance to stick with the team – and keep a good spot – for an extended period of time.
Patrick Marleau – (Pre-January – 27 pts in 38 gms, Jan/Feb – 12 pts in 16 gms)
Historically Marleau has scored on over 13% of his shots; but this season has seen that number cut nearly in half. Since January 1, however, Marleau has scored on 8.5% of his shots, meaning things are normalizing and that there's still realistic room for his further improvement. In fact, based on current projections, Marleau could score on 15% of his shots the rest of the season and still just make it to 10%. Even though we're already well into the second half of the season, it wouldn't be out of the question for Marleau to end up with double his current goal total.
St Louis
Alex Steen (Pre-January – 23 pts in 35 gms, Jan/Feb – 21 pts in 16 gms)
David Backes (Pre-January – 18 pts in 36 gms, Jan/Feb – 19 pts in 16 gms)
TJ Oshie (Pre-January – 15 pts in 29 gms, Jan/Feb – 19 pts in 16 gms)
The St Louis Blues season is a tale of two lines – the "STL" line and whatever this line is called (lets try the 'Backes to the Future' line). The difference between the two lines is the STL line starts 55% of its shifts in the offensive zone while the 'Steen Wolf' line gets that privilege only 45% of the time. This means the 'Life with Oshie' line has a lot more work to do just to get the puck into areas where they have an opportunity to score. Part of the hot streak for the 'Steen City' line was based on outlandish shooting percentages, which have come back to earth; but the 'Backes Attacks!' line has continued to produce. What's more – their crazy shooting percentages can be seen as an evening out of their lower percentages to start the season. The only potential drawback to the 'For Love or Oshie' line is the absence of Kevin Shattenkirk, but that is an issue for every Blue except Alex Pietrangelo.
Vancouver
Nick Bonino – (Pre-January – 21 pts in 35 gms, Jan/Feb – 4 pts in 16 gms)
Bonino has struggled to produce much in the way of points since December. His shots per game then fell off a cliff in mid-january, bottoming out at just over half a shot per game at even strength. Bonino faces the toughest competition for the Canucks, getting 46% of his starts in the offensive zone against the other team's best. As a result it's no surprise to see him hit a rough patch. But there are signs he's rebounding, starting with his shot rate creeping closer to 2.5 per game overall in February. Now that Bonino is shooting again, expect his on-ice shooting percentage to climb from the floor it's been on since January 1.
Adam Clendening – (Pre-January – 2 pts in 4 gms, Jan/Feb – 1 pt in 4 gms)
Clendening is a bit of a reach for this series, but warrants a mention because he's gone from being a minor leaguer to averaging 18 minutes per game, with well over three of those minutes coming on the power play. Furthermore, Clendening is averaging a shot per game and has the highest shots per 60 minutes played at even strength among Canuck blue liners. Four games really is not enough to make any declarations; however, the early returns look very good for Clendening, especially with Alex Edler producing next to no points on a middling Canuck power play.
Winnipeg
Mark Scheifele – (Pre-January – 19 pts in 38 gms, Jan/Feb – 11 pts in 17 gms)
Scheifele is averaging two points for every three games since January 1 while scoring on less than six percent of his shots over that period. He has three points in four games in February while scoring on 10% of his shots – the difference between a 50 point pace and a 60 point pace. More good news for Scheifele is that his shot rate has steadily been on the rise since the end of January, and is now up to 2.5 per game. The emergence of Scheifele's game is evident, as he has as many shots this year as he did in 10 more games all of last season. As Scheifele continues to shoot, he's overdue for a high shooting percentage run.
Blake Wheeler – (Pre-January – 28 pts in 38 gms, Jan/Feb – 13 pts in 17 gms)
Blake Wheeler is averaging nearly three shots per game for the season, but 3.5 since January 1. Over that span he's also scored on just over eight percent of his shots, three percentage points lower than his normal rate. Basically, a below average shooting percentage has cost Wheeler two or three goals over the last 17 games, equivalent to between 10 to 15 over an entire season. His newfound desire to shoot doesn't appear to be a blip either, as there have been a couple of prolonged runs this season where Wheeler has pushed his shot attempts to elite levels. It's also in keeping with Wheeler's trend of increased shooting over the last four seasons.
Trending Up (Part 1) – 2014-15
Deep Dive Part 2 (2015)
Deep Dive Part 1 (2015)