February 20, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-02-20

Discussing the Art Ross race, Backstrom ties for the league lead, and more…

 

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I did a radio spot for Fantasy Sports Network yesterday. I'll throw up a link to the audio if I can track it down. I bring this up because the NBA trade deadline was yesterday and they got so busy with all the moves that they had to push my spot back by 20 minutes. I only hope that the NHL deadline is just as wild. For some perspective, if you aren't tuned into the NBA and what went down yesterday, 9% of players in the league changed hands in one day. If that went down in the NHL we'd see over 50 players change teams. Don't hold your breath.

 

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Check out Justin Bourne on the six candidates still in the race for the Art Ross trophy. He has Patrick Kane finishing one back of Sidney Crosby for the trophy, which may in fact kill me if it happens given my $10 bet on Kane at 35/1 to win the trophy prior to the season.

 

Figured I'd lead with this considering five of the six contenders were in action last night.

Bourne has Nicklas Backstrom as a contender but not in his top-two. Maybe time to change that after Backstrom's hot date with Ondrej Pavelec. Three points for Backstrom vaults him into a tie for first in league scoring with Kane. You could have had Backstrom at 50/1 prior to the season, in case you are wondering.

 

Backstrom and Alexander Ovechkin are tearing teams apart right now. Ovechkin also made the list but ranks well back for Art Ross contention. He's got the Rocket Richard trophy on lockdown though. His 38th goal of the season keeps him two up on Rick Nash (who also scored last night) and given Ovechkin's pedigree we might as well hand him the trophy with that kind of lead.

 

The Jets were absolutely playing with fire giving the Capitals six power play chances. They ceded three goals on those chances. Can't give the Capitals any rope right now.

To be perfectly honest, I was kind of writing Backstrom and Ovechkin off in the Art Ross race as well. Not that I didn't think that they'd be around, just that I had them at a lower tier. Stupid thinking on my part though. Both have 100-point history and it won't even take 100 to win this year's Art Ross.

 

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Tyler Myers has enjoyed his Jets experience so far with four points and 13 SOG in four games. He's not a top power play guy for Winnipeg, sitting behind Dustin Byfuglien and Tobias Enstrom on the depth chart so I'm not sure that this run continues. Perhaps a mini opportunity to sell high following the trade and instant results.

 

The Jets damn near saw their season go up in a puff of smoke as Blake Wheeler was hobbled blocking a shot. Thankfully he was able to return and finish the game. They are banged up enough as it is. He goes down, they may as well start thinking about next season.

 

Word is that the Jets are shopping Alexander Burmistrov around for help at the deadline. Obviously teams would only be interested in Burmistrov if he actually returns. I could see him willing to come back to a non-Winnipeg destination. Sorry Winnipeg but you popped up in the top-two (along with Edmonton) for destinations most frequently found on no-trade lists.

 

That link is to a Deadspin article, which links to the actual poll on ESPN but it's an ESPN Insider article and there's no way I'm paying for that (too much quality content available for free elsewhere) so I didn't link to the actual ESPN article itself.

 

Back to Burmistrov. His KHL numbers (63 points in 105 games) are underwhelming and he never really got off the ground in three years in the NHL either. Makes me question how much of a fantasy impact he'd make if he actually returned. Wouldn't be rushing out to add him.

 

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Dubinsky got the last laugh scoring a game-winning short-handed goal late in the third period. Dubinsky quietly has a four-game goal-scoring streak on the go.

 

This game was really a goaltending battle though with both Marc-Andre Fleury and Curtis McElhinney putting up strong performances. Fleury really had to stand on his head throughout the match and was only beaten by a couple of horrendous individual plays by his own teammates.

 

The opening goal was scored by Scott Hartnell on a turnover by Derrick Pouliot who exacerbated the mistake by conceding position to Hartnell in front of the net affording him the time and space to beat Fleury one-on-one.

 

The second Blue Jacket goal came on a turnover by Blake Comeau who got beat to the net by Matt Calvert. Comeau following up the play bumped Fleury over leaving Dubinsky alone with the rebound and the entire top half of the net.

 

Fleury did get beat on one play but got bailed out by Cam Atkinson, king of the empty shot, who somehow missed the entire net on a one-timer from inside the crease on a 5-on-3. Thus ends Atkinson's three-game scoring streak. It's also why, like Craig Smith, Atkinson probably never develops into more than a 40-50-point guy.

 

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Martin St. Louis now has two goals and four points in the last two games and is riding a three-game scoring streak. Creeping back to life.

 

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No Alex Galchenyuk for the Canadiens last night as he was out with the flu.

 

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TSN's Travis Yost with a statistical look at where Jonathan Quick ranks among NHL goalies (hint, it's not as high as you might suspect.)

 

From this data, one can reasonable conclude that Quick, at least on a five-year average, is something of a middle-tier starting goaltender in the National Hockey League. After all, no matter if you look at unadjusted or adjusted save percentages, you can find ten or more goalies that have out-performed him over thousands of shots and hundreds of games.

What's really concerning about Quick, though, is that his game has slid considerably in recent years. Inarguably his best two seasons came in 2010-2011 (.918) and 2011-2012 (.928). That, combined with a colossal individual performance during the first Kings Cup run, ended up with one of the league's biggest goaltending contracts.

 

This doesn't translate perfectly to fantasy hockey. An elite defensive team like Los Angeles can take an "average" goalie and make him elite if you score common stats like Wins, Goals-Against Average and Shutouts. He is also a workhorse with the fourth most appearances in the last five seasons. Those are all boons to his fantasy value but it still feels like he's slid down a tier from where we've got Tuukka Rask (struggling in his own right this season), Henrik Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne and Carey Price.

 

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After a brief cameo with some top power play minutes Michal Jordan has been sent back to the minors by Carolina. Was always a long shot to become relevant. This just reinforces that.

 

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Check out Dobber's latest for Puck Daddy on why Ovechkin is a stud and Eric Staal is a dud.

 

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FiveThirtyEight ranks the potential trade deadline acquisitions by their fancy stats, a really good look if you are analytically inclined.

 

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I am very excited for the launching of the new NHL.com today. Apparently it will feature an advanced stats section with new names for "Corsi" and "Fenwick" stats. I approve of this move. People might take those stats more seriously and understand them better with a better naming system.

 

Puck Daddy takes a deep dive on everything that is expected to come available with the NHL.com upgrade. Exciting time, fellow nerds.

 

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Apparently I forgot to actually include a link to Elliotte Friedman's latest 30 Thoughts in yesterday's ramblings. Sorry about that. I've linked to it here if you didn't track it down on your own.

 

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Isn't life just way more fun when Ovechkin has it going?

 

 

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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
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Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
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Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
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Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency VAN Players
23.5 ELIAS PETTERSSON CONOR GARLAND JAKE DEBRUSK
18.3 KIEFER SHERWOOD DANTON HEINEN TEDDY BLUEGER
17.2 J.T. MILLER PHILLIP DI GIUSEPPE BROCK BOESER

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