Eastern Edge: Trending Down – Part One

Eric Daoust

2015-02-17

DougieHamilton

These 18 Eastern Conference players are trending down in the second half.

Over the course of an NHL season we get the opportunity to experience the ups and downs that players go through. From a fantasy perspective, there are times that players are almost guaranteed to get on the score sheet every night and there are other times when he cannot buy a point for weeks. When they are down it can be very frustrating for fantasy owners that need production to win their league championship. Occasionally, the downward trend reaches a point where the owner is forced to take action.

Today we will look at a list of players in the Eastern Conference that had trended down since the start of 2015. The goal here is to try to look beyond short cold streaks and find players that have declined over a more significant sample of games while trying to get to the bottom of the issue. The players covered will range from higher-tier players experiencing frustrating runs all the way to more fringe players that have fallen off the cliff in terms of fantasy relevance.

Boston

Loui Eriksson (seven pts in 16 GP in 2015, 24 pts in 38 GP in 2014) – The lackluster tenure of Eriksson in Boston continued with a cold start to 2015 after showing some signs of hope in late 2014. He was previously listed as a buy-low option and although he has partially corrected course, he is still capable of better especially given his recent woes. The good news is that the Bruins have remained patient and continue to give Eriksson excellent ice time in all situations. Furthermore, his shooting percentage is still 2% below his career average so a bit of luck could help pad his point totals down the stretch.

Dougie Hamilton (seven pts in 17 GP in 2015, 22 pts in 38 GP in 2014) – An emerging star defenseman, Hamilton is going through a bit of a cold stretch in an otherwise excellent campaign. While slumps for defensemen are not uncommon, especially when they are so young, there are changes in his utilization that are contributing to his mediocre 2015 totals. In his 17 games in the New Year, Hamilton has averaged just over 20 minutes per game, which is well below his season average of 21:37. If this trend continues, it will be very difficult for Hamilton to maintain the pace he set in the first half of the season.

Carl Soderberg (six pts in 17 GP in 2015, 27 pts in 38 GP in 2014) – The pending unrestricted free agent is in the midst of a second consecutive strong season. Unfortunately, since January 1^st he has been mired in a slump. Part of the reason for the cold spell is that Soderberg is stuck on the Bruins' third line behind stars Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci. This gives Soderberg fewer opportunities to play with top wingers and also limits his ice time, which sits at an average of 16:27. This will limit Soderberg's potential and make him prone to periodic drops in production. With that said, owners in keeper leagues can look forward to their player potentially landing in a much better role this summer that gives him better minutes next year.

Buffalo

Tyler Ennis (seven pts in 18 GP in 2015, 24 pts in 38 GP in 2014) – On such a bad Buffalo squad, consistent scoring is practically non-existent and Ennis is no stranger to disappointing stretches. Unfortunately, even though he continues to get prime ice time his team has gone into tanking mode as evidenced by the recent acquisition of the injured Evander Kane. Out went Drew Stafford and the support cast up front became that much weaker. This puts more defensive focus on Ennis and, if the team opts for more balanced lines, he will get much weaker linemates down the stretch. He may not be much of a fantasy factor until next year.

Zemgus Girgensons (six pts in 18 GP in 2015, 20 pts in 38 GP in 2014) – Girgensons has really slowed down lately but it is not all that surprising for this to happen. He simply has not shown great offensive ability since being drafted and is not a good enough playmaker yet at the center position to sustain solid point totals. Like Ennis, Girgensons will likely suffer from a weaker supporting cast once the Sabres are done stripping down their roster. In particular, his shooting percentage (13.5%) is a bit high and may be due for a decline in the coming months.

Carolina

Mark Letestu (four pts in 17 GP in 2015, 5 pts in 9 GP in 2014) – Letestu is always a player worth watching because he has some sneaky value in the right format. Unfortunately, he now finds himself on the fourth line and aside from some decent ice time on special teams has largely fallen out of favor in Columbus. His offensive production has dried up and at this point it looks like Letestu may be traded before the deadline. A new environment could boost his value but considering that most of the teams interested will be contenders looking to add depth, Letestu's value may once again be limited to select deep multi-category leagues.

Detroit

Tomas Jurco (one pt in 8 GP in 2015, 12 pts in 35 GP in 2014) – Jurco is a young player with a lot of upside who has flirted with fantasy relevance. Unfortunately, he has not been nearly as effective of late and has been logging less than 10 minutes of ice time quite frequently since returning from a back injury a couple weeks ago. Barring a few injuries up front for the Red Wings it is unlikely that Jurco will make a fantasy impact anytime soon.

Stephen Weiss (six pts in 16 GP in 2015, 12 pts in 15 GP in 2014) – As expected, Weiss has slowed down following a hot start returning from a slew of injuries. Unfortunately, there will be some further decline down the stretch. His shooting percentage is still over 20% and his 34 shots over 31 games are not enough to sustain any level of scoring over the long haul. To make matters worse, Weiss is logging just 11:27 per contest, which is not a formula for success in fantasy leagues. There may still be a window to sell high due to his impressive season total. If that opportunity exists you may want to act now.

Florida

Jimmy Hayes (nine pts in 19 GP in 2015, 17 pts in 27 GP in 2014) – With his NHL career perhaps hanging in the balance this year, Hayes has exceeded expectations and has become a formidable secondary scorer for the Panthers. His size, checking and high-volume shooting have helped him stay in the lineup and he currently sits above the half-a-point-a-game mark. However, of late he has slowed down of late which shows us a few things about Hayes. Despite the improved play, his offensive upside is limited which will make him prone to bouts of inconsistency.

Jussi Jokinen (nine pts in 20 GP in 2015, 19 pts in 34 GP in 2014) – Jokinen's frustrating campaign continues with a dry spell in 2015. The main issue has been a lack of goal-scoring as evidenced by his four goals and shooting percentage of just 4.3%. He has not scored since December 27^th but is not helping matters by shooting just 28 times in 20 games in the New Year. While Jokinen is still a good buy-low option, you have to wonder if he will do enough to fully turn his goal-scoring woes around.

Montreal

Lars Eller (two pts in 17 GP in 2015, 14 pts in 33 GP in 2014) – After showing some progression earlier this year and last spring in the postseason, Eller has gone ice-cold in 2015. In fact, he is currently on pace to fall short of last year's disastrous 26-point campaign. As it stands, his shooting percentage is on-par with his career average. The problem is a lack of power play minutes and limited overall ice time as well as an inability to show any consistency as a playmaker. He has been involved in trade rumors which could do wonders from a fantasy standpoint. Assuming that he would be dealt to a team looking to get younger, he could become a bigger part of a new team's nucleus which would give him better opportunities to improve his offensive consistency.

Jiri Sekac (two pts in 17 GP in 2015, 14 pts in 30 GP in 2014) – After being a borderline fantasy-relevant player in late 2014, Sekac has hit a wall. As a result, he has bounced around the lineup and was even scratched last game. It would not be surprising to see Sekac continue to struggle as he has never logged more than 47 games in a season as a pro. In all likelihood, Sekac is a write-off for the rest of the year. However, he could be very appealing to own in the future. The Canadiens are still not fully set on their wings and will be looking for players to step up and occupy those roles long-term. Sekac has enough talent to grab one of those spots.

New Jersey

Adam Henrique (seven pts in 17 GP in 2015, 21 pts in 33 GP in 2014) – Henrique's usually reliable production has slowed down significantly in 2015. One of the main culprits is a lack of shooting – just 20 shots in 17 games since the New Year. As a result, his ice time has been trending down. While his season average is 18:19, he has averaged 17:39 since January 1^st and 17:15 in February. There is still hope as Henrique has not disappeared from being on one of the team's three main scoring lines. But with the Devils spreading out the scoring, Henrique's ice time and offensive potential down the stretch will not be maximized.

Marek Zidlicky (four pts in 17 GP in 2015, 18 pts in 39 GP in 2014) – Usually a solid point producer from the back end, Zidlicky has had a disappointing campaign, in part due to the Devils falling apart as a team. With an impressive 11 power play points under his belt, the problem has been putting up points at even strength. Fortunately, there is a possibility that he is moved at the deadline. Unlike Sekera, Zidlicky has a better history producing points and could flourish if the conditions are right. This could make Zidlicky extremely valuable down the stretch in all formats, as his peripheral contributions make him an asset in multi-category leagues as well.

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