Looking Ahead 2015: Week 22

Mike Schmidt

2015-03-06

DavidBackes

 

Looking ahead at the best and worst schedules in the league over the next week.

 

Experienced or not, every fantasy hockey enthusiast is biased toward certain players. Certain guys end up on certain poolies' rosters year in and year out. It's important to recognize when you hold a certain player in higher regard than others do. With that being said, it's confession time. Here are the five guys I can't help but target in drafts or try to acquire via trade…

 

David Backes, C/RW, St. Louis – I've owned Inglorious Backes in at least one multi-category league every season since the 2008-09 campaign. Afterthe first few rounds of a draft are complete, I tend to target the longtime St. Louis Blue because of his ability to provide hits, blocks and penalty minutes while still finding a way to provide at least adequate offensive production. Backes has eclipsed 20 goals, 30 assists and 60 penalty minutes every season since 2009-10. He'll never be an elite fantasy option, but Backes has been an above-average one for a long, long time. That's a comforting thought to any owner trying to build a championship-caliber squad.

 

Mikko Koivu, C, Minnesota – Yes, his best days are behind him. The Minnesota Wild captain was a scrumtrulescent fantasy centerman from 2008-2011, but nagging injuries ever since have prevented Koivu from breaking the 55-point barrier again. I still love him in leagues where faceoffs won are a category (he has 784 through 63 games this season), and improvements to his surrounding cast allowed him to stave off a significant decline in production as he entered his thirties. Saku's younger brother has always been better in real life than in fantasy, but that fact hasn't stopped me from targeting and acquiring him in my leagues most years. 

 

Evander Kane, LW, Buffalo – I'd just like to point out Kane scored 30 goals… for a middling Winnipeg Jets squad… in his age-20 season. I owned him in a multi-cat league that season, and it was an absolute blast. So it's been alarming to see the former fourth overall selection in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft struggle (and ultimately fail) to match that level of production ever since. That being said, it's difficult to imagine a so-called top-six power forward perform at a high level when his shooting percentage has hovered between 7.5 percent and 8 percent over his last 100 games in the NHL. Now Kane's a Buffalo Sabre and is out for the remainder of the 2014-15 campaign while he recovers from shoulder surgery. Will all of this prevent yours truly from drafting him again this coming fall? Probably not…

 

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Arizona At just 23 years of age, this Arizona Coyotes defenseman already has three double-digit-goal seasons on his resume. Oh, and he's still getting better. Ekman-Larsson has seen his shot attempts, shooting percentage and go up since the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign.

 

Year

Games Played

Goals

Shots On Goal

Shooting Percentage

2012-13

48

3

101

3.0%

2013-14

80

15

199

7.5%

2014-15

64

17

205

8.3%

 

He's somewhere between a 40-point defenseman and a 50-point defenseman at this point in his career, leaving him just shy of elite status. I love taking him as a slightly more cost-effective option than fellow blueliners like Nashville's Shea Weber and Chicago's Duncan Keith. Don't penalize him too much for being the best player on a rebuilding Arizona squad that currently lacks impact talent on both ends of the ice. I sure don't.

 

Brian Elliott, G, St. Louis – The former Wisconsin Badger has been an above-average goaltender for the vast majority of his time in St. Louis (save for 24 appearances during the abbreviated 2012-13 season, one which he registered an underwhelming .907 save percentage). It seems like every year Elliott is overlooked as a quality fantasy goaltender. It's probably because he always finds himself in a timeshare (usually with another goaltender he out-produces). Elliott hasn't seen 50-plus starts since 2010-11, and that was a season where he posted a goals-against average of 3.34 and a save percentage of .893. But has he not been the perfect No. 2 fantasy goaltender since he joined St. Louis?

 

Year

Games Started

Wins

Save Percentage

Goals-Allowed-Average

2011-12

36

23

.940

1.56

2012-13

20

14

.907

2.28

2013-14

25

18

.922

1.96

2014-15

33

20

.921

2.20

 

If only he would play more…

 

Now let's take a look ahead at some teams to lean on or avoid in the coming week or so:

 

Boston 4.15 – four games – PHI, DET, OTT and TBL

Columbus 3.99 – four games – NJD, COL, CAR and DET

Steer Clear

Florida 2.26 – two games – NYI and WPG

Washington 2.26 – two games – BUF and NYR

Vancouver 2.74 – three games – SJS, ANA and LAK

New York Rangers 2.76 – three games – all on road

Calgary 2.89 – three games – DET, OTT and ANA

Saturday, March 7 to Friday, March 13

Best Bets

Toronto 4.35 – four games – STL, NYI, BUF and CGY

New York Islanders 4.19 – four games – FLA, TOR, NYR and OTT

Ottawa 4.15 – four games – CGY, BOS, MTL and NYI

Boston 4.15 – four games – PHI, DET, OTT and TBL

Columbus 4.05 – four games – COL, CAR, DET and EDM

Steer Clear

Buffalo 1.95 – two games – both on road

Chicago 2.04 – two games – NYR and ARI

Florida 2.26 – two games – NYI and WPG

Vancouver 2.74 – three games – SJS, ANA and LAK

New York Rangers 2.76 – three games – all on road

Sunday, March 8 to Saturday, March 14

Best Bets

Toronto 4.50 – four games – NYI, BUF, CGY and VAN

Carolina 4.36 – four games – all at home

Colorado 4.21 – four games – MIN, LAK, NJD and CGY

New York Islanders 4.20 – four games – TOR, NYR, OTT and MTL

Ottawa 4.15 – four games – CGY, BOS, MTL and NYI

Steer Clear

Buffalo 2.00 – two games – TOR and NYR

Washington 2.05 – two games – NYR and DAL

Florida 2.15 – two games – WPG and CAR

Nashville 2.76 – three games – all on road

Winnipeg 2.85 – three games – all on road

Monday, March 9 to Sunday, March 15

Best Bets

Toronto 4.50 – four games – NYI, BUF, CGY and VAN

New York Rangers 4.30 – four games – NYI, WAS, BUF and FLA

St. Louis 4.21 – four games – WPG, PHI, MIN and DAL

New York Rangers 4.20 – four games – TOR, NYR, OTT and MTL

Anaheim 4.19 – four games – VAN, CGY, MIN and NSH

Steer Clear

Edmonton 2.71 – three games – all on road

Chicago 1.95 – two games – both on road

Winnipeg 2.85 – three games – all on road

Buffalo 2.00 – two games – TOR and NYR

New Jersey 2.90 – three games – all on road

Tuesday, March 10 to Monday, March 16

Best Bets

Toronto 4.40 – four games – BUF, CGY, VAN and EDM

St. Louis  4.21 – four games – WPG, PHI, MIN and DAL

Los Angeles 4.21 – four games – COL, VAN, NSH and ARI

New York Rangers 4.30 – four games – NYI, WAS, BUF and FLA

Carolina 4.16 – four games – CBJx2, DAL and FLA

Steer Clear

Chicago 1.95 – two games -both on road

San Jose 2.00 – two games – NSH and CHI

Vancouver 2.00 – two games – LAK and TOR

Nashville 2.57 – three games – all on road

Detroit 2.80 – three games – CBJ, PHI and PIT

Wednesday, March 11 to Tuesday, March 17

Best Bets

Toronto 4.40 – four games – BUF, CGY, VAN and EDM

Carolina 4.26 – four games – DAL, FLA, CBJ and OTT

Florida 4.16 – four games – WPG, CAR, NYR and MTL

St. Louis 4.14 – four games – PHI, MIN, DAL and CGY

Pittsburgh 4.14 – four games – EDM, BOS, DET and NJD

Steer Clear

Colorado 2.36 – two games – NJD and CGY

Minnesota 2.75 – three games – ANA, STL and NSH

Detroit 2.80 – three games – CBJ, PHI and PIT

Dallas 2.84 – three games – CAR, WAS and STL

Arizona 2.86 – three games – CHI, NJD and LAK

Thursday, March 12 to Wednesday, March 18

Best Bets

Carolina 4.26 – four games – DAL, FLA, CBJ and OTT

Los Angeles 4.16 – four games – VAN, NSH, ARI and ANA

Florida 4.16 – four games – WPG, CAR, NYR and MTL

Columbus 4.15- four games – DET, EDMx2 and CAR

St. Louis 4.14 – four games – PHI, MIN and DAL and CGY

Steer Clear

Colorado 2.36 – two games – NJD and CGY

Minnesota 2.75 – three games – ANA, STL and NSH

Detroit 2.80 – three games – CBJ, PHI and PIT

Dallas 2.84 – three games – CAR, WAS and STL

Arizona 2.86 – three games – CHI, NJD and LAK

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11 CAR vs PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11 MTL vs CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11 BUF vs OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11 TOR vs BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11 NYI vs PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11 MIN vs L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11 STL vs T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11 WPG vs UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11 COL vs SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11 ANA vs VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11 S.J vs CBJ

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
ALEX LAFERRIERE L.A
MARTIN NECAS CAR
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK
TIMOTHY LILJEGREN S.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency ARI Players
25.8 NICK SCHMALTZ ALEXANDER KERFOOT CLAYTON KELLER
17.5 DYLAN GUENTHER LAWSON CROUSE LOGAN COOLEY
17.2 AKU RATY JACK MCBAIN MATIAS MACCELLI

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