March 7, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-03-07

Mining the Senators, replacing Byfuglien, Okposo to return and more…

Had a couple of complaints about a lack of recapping all the games these past couple of days. I get it but that's not necessarily what these ramblings are about. My expectation is that you've already looked at the box scores from the night before. If I have a bunch of content then maybe I don't touch on every game. Just the way it goes. For instance, last night I put together 1,500 words before the games even started. For better or worse that means less is coming in terms of game recaps. Consider yourself forewarned.

Sergei Bobrovsky is back to reign terror upon the fantasy world! Okay maybe not. This was his second game back from injury and while he won this won, it was against the Devils, not exactly a fearsome opponent. He only needed 21 saves to do it too.

Bobrovsky has been a fantasy MVP the past couple of years in March and April ripping through the league with a 30-10-3 record, a 2.00 GAA and a .934 save percentage. I remember in 2013 he basically won me my league single-handedly in a year when my team was struggling otherwise.

The dude has had some transcendent runs. Not sure I trust him for a third straight though. Columbus just seems too banged up.

Helping the cause is a quick return from concussion for Brandon Dubinsky who had a goal and an assist last night. I panic dumped him a week ago when I found out about the head injury. Certainly regretting it now.

Justin Falk also had a goal and an assist but he isn't worth owning. He just isn't.

In yesterday's ramblings I talked about how Darcy Kuemper might see action with the Wild skating in the back-to-back. Didn't happen. Devan Dubnyk started (and won) again. No one else has started a game for the Wild since Dubnyk was acquired. Impressive but you've got to wonder if he has enough gas in the tank for another month of this plus playoffs.

On a positive note for Dubnyk and the Wild, they've put themselves three points clear of the Jets for the #1 Wild Card spot in the West so they'd need to get jumped by two teams at this point and they hold a pretty significant edge in regulation/overtime wins, which is an important tiebreaker. It's like having an extra point in the standings.

The Wild also have just seven games left on the road versus 10 at home, so the schedule is lining up in their favour as well. If things continue at this rate the Wild will have a playoff spot wrapped up with plenty of time left to find Dubnyk some rest. They certainly better have their spot wrapped before the final week as they close out the season on a road trip of terror against each of the top three teams in the Central (Chicago, Nashville, St. Louis). That road trip is worth noting if you've got Dubnyk in a fantasy pool. Hopefully your league ends before that week, otherwise Dubnyk may not be the reliable option you've found him to be.

Two-point nights once again for Jason Pominville and Zach Parise. That's back-to-back games like that for these two. One more and we can call it a streak. Wouldn't that be nice timing for those in head-to-head leagues?

Injury woes for Chad Johnson pushed the Sabres to call-up Andrey Makarov (read more on him here). Makarov didn't see action as Anders Lindback got the call. I wouldn't advise snagging Makarov. He isn't ready to play. I doubt the Sabres even give him any action. And, of course, continue to treat Lindback as hostile.

The Senators' depth wonders continue to produce! Milan Michalek (two assists), Mark Stone (goal and assist), Mika Zibanejad (goal), Mike Hoffman (assist). These guys are all widely available in fantasy leagues, just begging to be picked up. They've been at it like this for going on a month now. Did I mention the Senators play as many games as any team from here on out? 19 left for the Senators and sizzling hot.

The Hamburglar is up to 7-0-1. Still not a believer long term but I love it all the same.

With Henrik Zetterberg back both Justin Abdelkader and Erik Cole are in the money as his wingers. I talked about this earlier in the week so I won't elaborate too much but the trio combined for all six points scored by Red Wings last night, which is a nice feat.

The Flames won't die, even without their captain and MVP Mark Giordano.

Kris Russell didn't have to block 15 shots last night but he continues to produce with his minutes bump. Another assist for Russell in 26 minutes of action. Also stepping up is Dennis Wideman who had two assists in 26 minutes of action. You almost have to get in on this pair if they are going to keep skating big minutes like this. Perhaps you use Russell as an injury replacement for someone we talk about later in these ramblings…

First game for Jonas Hiller in two weeks and what a performance stopping 33 of 35 for a huge win. Do the Flames continue to roll with the whole "hot hand" thing? If so it would seemingly be Hiller's turn to run with it after Ramo lost the other night.

Oscar Klefbom is a perfect example of why tear-it-down rebuilds take so damn long. Almost three and a half years after being drafted Klefbom is finally making waves but he's just one of six defensemen the Oilers are going to need to be a threat and they traded another one in Jeff Petry just a week ago.

Klefbom is also a reminder that sometimes deadline trades don't always work out for buyers. The Kings traded the Klefbom pick (along with Colton Teubert and a later pick) for Dustin Penner. Penner was a flop, the Kings lost in round one and the Oilers got a nice pick for their troubles. Penner and the Kings did win the Cup the following year, however, so I suppose it wasn't all bad for Los Angeles.

Seven SOG in 26 minutes for Klefbom last night though. Not a lot of positives in Edmonton right now but he is one.

Check out Austin Wallace's latest prospect ramblings for more McDavid gushing.

Alexander Ovechkin left practice after just 10 minutes yesterday. Still experiencing pain with his lower-body injury. Probably not serious but still worrisome.

Sounds like Kyle Okposo is nearing a return. He will rejoin the Islanders on the road today. Apparently he won't play against Florida or Toronto, their next two opponents, but after that it's a possibility.

Look to move Anders Lee in one-year settings now, while the price is higher. I've got him in a keeper and won't be making a move but in one-year he is likely to see some pull-back after a few productive weeks.

Both Sami Vatanen and Matt Beleskey will travel with the Ducks on their road trip. Vatanen is unlikely to return on the trip but looks like progress to me.

Johnny Oduya practiced with the team for the first time since his injury so it looks like he'll be back soon. Not much fantasy relevance in this, mind you.

Looks like the Kings will have nothing to worry about for the rest of the season, as far as their cap is concerned. Slava Voynov's trial has been pushed back to April 21 eliminating any chance that he'll play this season.

Fresh deals for Torey Krug and Reilly Smith will keep them in Boston next year. Krug got another one-year deal at $3.4M while Smith got two years at $3.45M.

For Krug, this is about gambling on himself and getting closer to unrestricted free agency because basically any defenseman who can walk and chew gum at the same time gets $4M a season. Those contracts are normally long deals however. By taking a shorter deal he allows the Bruins to pinch a little for next season, which they desperately need to do and he opens up greater earning potential in the future. Seems like a bit of a sweetheart deal for the Bruins though, similar to how they got both Krug and Smith super cheap this season. I've got Krug in a salary cap league though, so I don't mind this contract in the slightest.

How about a frightening stat on Smith to close this section? Apparently only 14 NHL forwards have scored at a slower pace at five-on-five since the start of 2014. So the time to sell high on him was Christmas 2013?

More juicy nuggets in Elliotte Friedman's latest 30 Thoughts:

18. The Sabres are expected to look at some youthful options, but if they chase a veteran, it's believed they have interest in unrestricted free agent Antti Niemi. If that doesn't work, would Kari Lehtonen be a fit? Lindy Ruff is going to have a stroke if this continues and Jim Nill talked in this space about how difficult Lehtonen finds the adjustment on a better defensive team as opposed to a porous one. He could could help the Sabres, because while Buffalo hopes to improve, it's unlikely they would be airtight.

Not sure how much I buy that Nill anecdote. Not that he didn't say as much but rather that it's accurate. The Stars are one of the worst teams in the league in terms of shot volume ranking 24^th in shots allowed with just over 30 per game. Granted, no one is worse than the Sabres at over 35 shots allowed per game but I'm not sure that the issues that Lehtonen is having are because the Stars are "too good" defensively. That's simply not something I would ascribe to them.

That being said, you do tend to find some goalies really do play better when they are seeing a greater volume of shots. It's why you haven't really seen a goalie with a terrible save percentage play for Buffalo these past few years. At a certain point you just face so much rubber that you can't help but stop a reasonable percentage of it. Of course, Mike Smith begs to differ.

That these names are already being discussed as movable this summer is definitely intriguing though.

One more from the 30 Thoughts because this week was particularly juicy:

21. Once Korbinian Holzer and James Wisniewski get healthy enough to play, that will make 16 defencemen to dress for Anaheim this season — with nine potentially available on any given night. Wisniewski isn't known for his speed, but the Ducks wanted him because of his shot. He's got a good one, and they don't feel anyone else on the blueline gives them a similar weapon.

That just reinforces my belief that Wisniewski has the inside track on Sami Vatanen when both return from injury. I've been wrong before but Vatanen had already started to lose his top power play spot before he got injured. Wisniewski is like the nail in the coffin.

It looks like the NHL will be ready to setup league-wide player tracking, which will replace the real-time stats they currently use, which are done by hand, whereas player tracking is automated.

Just on the surface this will change a lot in the fantasy game because it will eliminate the rink-to-rink biases we'd see in stats like hits and blocked shots. It will also open up a whole other world of fantasy stats that we could employ like shot strength, skating speed, etc. Seems ridiculous to use some of this as fantasy stats but some leagues track time on-ice and turnover percentage. Maybe you wouldn't use these new stats but I can guarantee you there will be trailblazers looking to mine the data.

I also think that this stuff is going to make life way easier for sim leagues and EA Sports' NHL franchise because it will provide objective data to apply to some of their player ratings systems rather than relying on subjective analyses.

Finally, it will hopefully open up a wealth of fresh stories for us scribes to tell using the new data, which is very exciting for me.

NHL.com runs down the most underrated players in fantasy hockey at each position.

Ryan Kesler talks about adjusting after a trade in another enlightening piece from The Players Tribune.

The Florida Panthers are running a contest to tryout for the Panthers' backup goalie spot in a practice later this season, no doubt inspired by their recent run in with goalie injuries. Fun stuff.

You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.