The Contrarian – Targeting Deadline Deals

Thomas Drance

2015-02-08

Dave Nonis

The Contrarian has some advice for making deals at the fantasy hockey trade deadline.

Fantasy trade deadlines are coming up soon and Matt Larkin of The Hockey News has written an article on January 21^st, 2015 called "Fantasy hockey: 20 trade targets for your stretch run" to get you ready.

The keys, as he puts it are "to target any player you believe (a) will have significant value down the stretch and (b) can be had for his proper price or anything less, even the tiniest discount." Pretty standard stuff, in fact it is the same stuff you would normally think of any time you are considering making a deal.

In the example he supplies, "GMs can be in any given league, placing such massive value on current numbers. Jakub Voracek is untouchable because 'he's the top guy in the whole game this year, come on.' Great player, but wouldn't you still trade him for a John Tavares?"

What he is doing is basically saying to trade away guys with surprise years for guys with proven reliability. In some other cases, trade for cheap players because they will not cost you much so go ahead and take a chance.

What is wrong with that? Nothing, I agree with the basic logic and so do all of you.

What is troubling are some of the evaluations in his list as I will explain. The quote immediately followed after the player's name is from Larkin's article. Any other quotes will be credited individually.

Tyson Barrie, "He's talented enough to produce at that elite level down the stretch again and won't cost a ton to acquire".

Ranked the 18^th best defenseman (by points) won't cost a ton to acquire but should you? Currently day-to-day with a hip injury, the person who owns him has probably been delighted with his production of points, assists and a lack of penalty minutes (if your league runs that way) but there is not much else to Barrie for a roto league. In a points only league, you'll have to pay a fair value to get him on your roster. At best, you are trading an extra forward with similar numbers for this defenseman.

David Krejci / Milan Lucic / David Pastrnak, "Go get all three. Pastrnak should cost next to nothing and may not even be on a roster in your league."

I have already talked about Lucic in a past article and in that same article identified that Krejci is the key to his production. My objection is mainly to Pastrnak being included. As quoted by Steve Conroy from The Boston Herald, "Julien hasn't felt comfortable enough to leave him on the top line with David Krejci and Milan Lucic, which sees some of the opposition's top lines, opting for the more experienced Reilly Smith in that right wing spot since the All-Star break. With the exception of the third period against the Rangers, when the Bruins needed another goal, Pastrnak has been skating on a third line with Carl Soderberg and Chris Kelly." Now you know why it is going to cost you nothing to get him.

Dustin Byfuglien, "If you're lucky, some poor sap is still deploying Byfuglien at forward", that same sap probably goes to team meetings dressed in a track suit.

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Trying to acquire the 11^th best defenseman by points, third over-all in penalty minutes, 18^th in shots and equally good in goals and assists is going to be magical if you don't give up someone of similar quality.

Victor Hedman, "The kid is ELITE but doesn't seem to earn the fanfare of a P.K. Subban or Erik Karlsson. Capitalize on that", tell that to the people who didn't draft him at the start of the season.

Based on Yahoo's Draft Analysis he was the eleventh most sought out defenseman with an average pick of 79 spots into a draft. He has earned the fanfare and the owner who has him now is not going to give him away for nothing now that he has come back from the early season injury. Not based on his current point-per-game production.

Tuukka Rask, "Milk that frustration from the Rask owner and pry Rask away. The Bruins are finally healthy, with Zdeno Chara, among others, back to full strength, and they're playing much better at both ends of the rink. It's no surprise Rask is 5-1-2 with a 1.60 GAA and .946 SP this month". That same owner sees that his fortunes have changed. Why would he part with him now?

In fact, as I have learned in my first season in the Dobber Experts League, goalies have a premium. Even the bad ones.

Steven Stamkos / John Tavares, "Don't laugh. Just because Stamkos is a superstar doesn't mean he can't be had in a trade. He's played great, but he's slightly overshadowed by breakout studs like Voracek and Tyler Seguin this season. Maybe, just maybe, you can offer one of them for 'Stammer.' Isn't that the guy you'd rather bet on in your fantasy post-season?"

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 14 - 19:11	NYR	vs	S.J
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Nov 14 - 20:11	DAL	vs	BOS
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