Trending Down (2014-15) Part 2

Doran Libin

2015-02-23

BrianElliott

 

Looking at 14 players who have been trending downward over the past month

 

Part 2 of trending down features more players who are struggling as the NHL season winds down. This week there is a heavier focus on goalies as there are three cases of goalies who are consistently posting subpar save percentages. A goalie who posts a sub .900 save percentage can almost single handedly sink their team's chances of winning. For evidence of this one need only look at the streaking Minnesota Wild. Despite being one of the best shot suppression teams Minnesota had a minus-16 goal differential through January 14. During that span they averaged 1.86 goals for per game while allowing 2.24 goals against. Since January 15 Minnesota has a goal differential of plus-20 in 25 fewer games. During that span they have averaged 2.35 goals for per game while allowing 1.18 goals against. It has not just been the increase in save percentage as with better goaltending the Wild are also scoring more. It goes to show that a bad goalie can effect more than just a team's defense.

 

Melker Karlsson (2014 – 5 points in 9 games, 2015 – 11 points in 23 games)

When Karlsson has produced at a high level it has been on the back of an amazing shooting percentage. A look at his production by month bears this out: five points in nine games on 7% shooting in November, eight points in 12 games on 37% shooting in December, three points in 11 games on four percent shooting in February. The best-case rate of production Karlsson will achieve, without any power play time, is a 40 point pace. Karlsson is due to slow down even more though as he still sports a 16.7% personal shooting percentage and a team high even-strength on-ice shooting percentage of 10.6%.

 

 

St Louis

 

 

Patrik Berglund (2014 – 11 points in 35 games, 2015 – 7 points in 19 games)

Berglund started the season skating over17 minutes per games but that has fallen each month, and now Berglund gets less than 13 minutes per game. He maintained a shot rate of two per game through January but even that has fallen off in February down to a shot and a half per game. It is only because Berglund's on-ice and personal shooting percentages have increased every month that he has managed 18 points thus far. The news gets worse as last game Berglund spent almost as much time with Goc and Reaves as he did with Stastny and Jaskin. Falling ice time and lesser linemates make Berglund a bad fantasy own.

 

Brian Elliott (2014 – 8-5-0, 2015 – 10-5-1)

February has been a horrible month for Brian Elliott. February has seen Elliott face more than 27 shots per game, up four shots from the previous month. He has also faced more shots from high-percentage areas. During this stretch Elliott's even strength save percentage dropped from 93% to 91%. That means Elliott is allowing 3 extra goals every five games. The drop in Elliott's game has been even more glaring as Jake Allen has posted elite numbers in five of his last six games.

 

 

Vancouver

 

Linden Vey (2014 – 14 points in 33 games, 2015 – 5 points in 22 games)

Vey has had success playing with Chris Higgins and Nick Bonino this year but has spent much of his time on the third or fourth line. Vey stills sees some power play time so it is unlikely that his production will dry up completely but if the most recent game is any indication production will become much harder for Vey. In the most recent Canuck game Vey skated with Dorsett and McMillan, neither of whom is known for his offensive abilities.

 

Ryan Miller (2014 – 19-7-1, 2015 – 9-8-0)

Miller is 7th in the league in wins and tied for 2nd in shutouts this year, however he is not in the top 20 in either save percentage or goals against average. Miller had a league average or better save percentage in October and January but was almost 10 point below the league average in November and December and has stopped less than 90% of the shots he has faced in February. To put this in context Miller has allowed five fewer goals than Braden Holtby this season on 268 fewer shots. Miller has only had one really strong game in his last 10 starts, in six of those games Miller stopped less than 90% of the shots he faced. In short Miller has been very streaky this season and right now he is streaking straight to the bottom.

 

 

Winnipeg

 

Jacob Trouba (2014 – 11 points in 31 games, 2015 – 6 points in 14 games)

The Jets are increasingly relying on Trouba to be the backbone of their penalty kill. Trouba has been on the ice for 59% of the Jets shorthanded time this year, that is up to close to 62% since January. The result of the greater reliance on Trouba on the penalty kill has been less time at even strength and on the power play. The arrival of Tyler Myers will make it even harder for Trouba, as Myers, unlike Bogosian, gets significant power play time. This pushes Trouba down to fourth on Jets' the power play depth chart.

 

Michael Frolik (2014 – 19 points in 38 games, 2015 – 11 points in 23 games)

Before the Evander Kane trade Michal Frolik often found himself on the second line with Scheifele and Mathieu Perreault. Since then Frolik has been relegated to the third line with Adam Lowry and Chris Thorburn. Even with the recent injury to Perreault it appears that Byfuglien will get the spot on the second line. Thorburn is especially bad as a linemate dragging almost everyone down in both production and possession. The Evander Kane trade was a raw deal for Frolik making him largely useless at even strength.

 

Trending Down (2014-15) Part 1      
Trending Up (Part 2)      
Trending Up (Part 1) – 2014-15      

 

 

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