Dead Pucks

Ian Gooding

2015-03-22

StevenStamkos

Is the dead puck era back?

It is not hard to see what is occurring in our pools this year. The National Post's Cam Cole writes about it in his column called, "With no NHL players poised to reach 100-point mark this season, is the dead puck era officially back?"

Cole correctly predicts, "For historical perspective, there's a pretty good chance that 2014-15 scoring race, barring a massive spurt by someone in the final month, will be won with the lowest points-per-game total in 60 years, since Bernie Geoffrion took the 1954-55 title with 75 points in 70 games."

He adds, "The top 10, then all essentially point-a-game guys" and "Evidently, this has become the gold standard of NHL excellence: one point per game by its most exciting players."

More historical analysis follows a bit later in his article (starting from 1968-69):

"Only five seasons in that span has no one reached 100 points. Two of those times, lockouts shortened the season to 48 games (and even then, the scoring champions were on a 100-plus pace)."

"The other three exceptions happened in the five years before the 2004-05 lockout, when the league realized it had a scoring crisis and adopted fairly radical rule changes to try and re-start offences after the cancelled season."

It is hard to argue with his logic, but it is really because of the “dead puck”?

Let us take a look at the seasonal statistics (as complied from NHL.com).

Season

Games

Goals

Goals / Game

Scoring Leader

Points

2014-15

1066

5667

5.31

Crosby / Ovechkin *

83 proj

2013-14

1230

6573

5.34

Crosby

104

2012-13

720

3822

5.31

St. Louis

60

2011-12

1230

6545

5.32

Malkin

109

2010-11

1230

6721

5.46

D. Sedin

104

2009-10

1230

6803

5.53

H. Sedin

112

2008-09

1230

7006

5.70

Malkin

113

2007-08

1230

6691

5.44

Ovechkin

112

2006-07

1230

7082

5.76

Crosby

120

2005-06

1230

7443

6.05

Thornton

125

2003-04

1230

6318

5.14

St. Louis

94

2002-03

1230

6530

5.31

Forsberg

106

2001-02

1230

6442

5.24

Iginla

96

Yes, the goals-per-game ratio is getting closer to the rate pre-lockout, but it also is about the same as the last three seasons. How can the scoring leaders drop to such low point-per-game paces when the same amount of goals were scored before and they were topping just over 100 points?

Well if you were paying attention to your pools, there probably were a few owners who skyrocketed from the bottom of the standings in November to near the top of the standings in mid-March. How did they do it if scoring was down?

The scoring was spread out. The elite players did not proved you as great of an advantage this year and because the middle tier of players improved, fantasy teams that were projected to place at the bottom of your league standings have made a dramatic improvement. Conversely, some of the top-rated fantasy teams dropped like a stone in the ocean.

Cole asks "What happened?" and gets a response "PK (penalty killing), that's the biggest thing. It's become so much better. You have to be really on your game even to get a power-play scoring chance," from Daniel Sedin.

Daniel's brother, Henrik suggests "I don't know if it's because of all the concussions, they're trying to slow the game down. Which I'm totally OK with, but I think that's the way the game is called right now, and you won't see the five-on-threes, or seven power plays a game, or the open ice that you used to see because guys were afraid to put a stick on you or grab you or hold you."

In addition, Cole says, "The coaches took it from there, with heavy emphasis on penalty killing and shot-blocking."

I don't disagree with Cole's assertion about coaching being more defensively oriented, but if on the whole all this were true then all goal scoring would be down, from the elite players down to the grinders.

Let us take a look at which teams play in games with the most goals, not just goals for but also goals allowed. Remember that the average goals per game rate is 5.31.

 

Games

TGG

AGFG

AGAG

ATGG

DALLAS

71

444

3.06

3.20

6.25

NY ISLANDERS

72

415

2.99

2.78

5.76

TORONTO

72

412

2.57

3.15

5.72

TAMPA BAY

72

411

3.21

2.50

5.71

COLUMBUS

71

404

2.58

3.11

5.69

EDMONTON

71

398

2.28

3.32

5.61

SAN JOSE

71

390

2.76

2.73

5.49

VANCOUVER

70

384

2.79

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2.70

5.49

ANAHEIM

73

400

2.82

2.66

5.48

CALGARY

71

389

2.89

2.59

5.48

DETROIT

70

379

2.84

2.57

5.41

OTTAWA

70

376

2.81

2.56

5.37

ST LOUIS

71

378

2.96

2.37

5.32

COLORADO

71

376

2.56

2.73

5.30

WASHINGTON

72

381

2.89

2.40

5.29

PHILADELPHIA

73

386

2.53

2.75

5.29

WINNIPEG

71

375

2.69

2.59

5.28

MINNESOTA

71

374

2.79

2.48

5.27

ARIZONA

71

373

2.00

3.25

5.25

NY RANGERS

69

358

2.96

2.23

5.19

PITTSBURGH

71

365

2.73

2.41

5.14

NASHVILLE

72

370

2.76

2.38

5.14

BOSTON

71

361

2.62

2.46

5.08

BUFFALO

71

360

1.79

3.28

5.07

LOS ANGELES

70

354

2.66

2.40

5.06

FLORIDA

71

354

2.37

2.62

4.99

CHICAGO

70

349

2.77

2.21

4.99

CAROLINA

70

345

2.26

2.67

4.93

MONTREAL

72

341

2.57

2.17

4.74

NEW JERSEY

71

332

2.24

2.44

4.68

TGG – Total Goals involved in Game

AGFG – Average Goals For involved in Game

AGAG – Average Goals Against involved in Game

ATGG – Average Total Goals involved in Game

Playoff teams highlighted in green

You would expect the worst teams to be involved in higher scoring games, but seven playoff-bound teams are above the average point-per-game rate.

Also, teams like Buffalo, Carolina, and Arizona are below the same rate. Shouldn't they be blown out by better teams?

I guess the best example of the balance in scoring can be found on Tampa Bay.

Steven Stamkos would once have been way ahead of most of his team, but today he is only one point ahead of Tyler Johnson, nine on Nikita Kucherov, and 12 up on Ondrej Palat. The team remains near the top of the league though.

People speculate about the three-point games and if adjusting the value of a win, or more importantly removing the extra point when teams lose in overtime or a shootout, but the defensive systems will still continue.

As a quick fix, allow all the goals scored in the shootout to count towards the individual player totals. I'll feel sad for the goalies, but if their teams and coaches want to promote a defense-first mentality then so be it if they get scored five times in a shootout. This also creates another statistical category that rotisserie pools can utilize.

The pucks and points are not necessarily dead. They are just being shared amongst all the players.

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