April 15, 2015
Dobber
2015-04-15
The AHL’s RoY Matt Murray, the World Hockey Championship, NHL playoff notes and more …
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My 10th annual Interactive Playoff Draft List is updated as of Monday, pick it up here for $8.99. It includes my own picks, a printable spreadsheet, injury notes, tips, etc. – and it has adjustments such as Kane playing and Mrazek starting.
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It’s official – Patrick Kane is back for Game 1. Four weeks early. Again, I don’t understand this. I’m not saying he’ll reinjure. I’m saying that there is a risk. Maybe 1%, maybe 10%, I don’t know. But if Chicago could play Game 1 without him and win, then they can keep playing without him until they lose two games. That could be two games later, or it could be in the second round. But buy him some more time. Sure, he could play the entire game with extra protection and any hit he takes is harmless. But he could also get hit into the boards at the wrong angle and snap that weakened point in the bone and he’s back to Square 1. I’m sure it’s Kane who is the one pushing to play though. Hockey players, eh? Too competitive to know what’s good for them.
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I hate to say this about Nashville because I like the team and love what they’ve done this year, but in the Western Conference I don’t think Chicago could have had a better matchup. I’d love to see Nashville win, but they stumbled down the stretch (6-12-3) and both Rinne and Forsberg became mere mortals. So while I’m not big on Chicago winning another Cup, I’m pretty high on them getting past the first round. The only series I see easier than that one is the Rangers putting out the Penguins in four.
Regarding the Penguins, I say that despite two things that should sway me. The first being that the Penguins are the team I root for. It’s the team I cheer for and the team I built two keeper leagues around. And the second being this analysis by Travis Yost over at TSN. Using a pretty accurate (historically) predictor, the Penguins boast the highest “Score-Adjusted Fenwick% Last 25 Games”. Then again, the Pens no longer have Kris Letang, who played 18 of those 25 games.
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Here is a list of playoff resources for you, if you have a last minute draft today:
Playoff Prep – East Part 1
Playoff Prep – West Part 1
The DobberHockey Expert Panel picks
By the way – the expert panel is 50-25 since we started doing this five years ago. I’m glad to see the consensus matches all my picks except the Minnesota one. So maybe I’ll have a good round.
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A trio of long-shot $10 bets that I made: Winnipeg to win the Cup at 20-1. The Rangers to play Anaheim in the Final at 15-1 because those are actually my Cup picks. And Montreal to play Chicago at 22-1 because that’s the scenario that would screw me the most in my two pools (call it a silver lining).
D – Justin Faulk, Jake Gardiner, Torey Krug, John Moore, Connor Murphy, Mike Reilly (CBJ prospect)
F – Marc Arcobello, Matt Hendricks, Dylan Larkin (DET prospect), Trevor Lewis, Jeremy Morin, Steve Moses (NSH prospect – but ineligible for playoffs as he just signed as an FA), Dan Sexton (UFA – remember him?), Ben Smith and Jimmy Vesey (NSH prospect).
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Friday is the last day of the regular season in the AHL and the farm team for Los Angeles (Manchester) has run away with the title. Still three playoff spots up for grabs there.
You thought the NHL had low scoring by not having a 90-point player? Well, the AHL may not have an 80-point player. Granted, they play eight fewer games, but still… LA’s Brian O’Neill has 78 points and needs two in the final game to make it. Nobody else has a chance. O’Neill is 26 so his prospect window has pretty much closed like so many Travis Morins and Keith Aucoins. (so I guess that means the Islanders will sign him this summer). You can read up on O’Neill here if you’re interested.
Brendan Leipsic, who Toronto got from Nashville in the Cody Franson trade, was the AHL player of the week after posting seven points in three games. He has 16 in 23 since the trade and sits fourth in AHL rookie scoring. Get the fantasy lowdown on Leipsic here.
Pittsburgh prospect Matt Murray was named the AHL’s rookie of the year. The stud goaltender has been tearing up the AHL record books this season with his 1.51 and 0.943 stats and he is 25-9-3 with 12 shutouts – and that includes the equivalent of five consecutive games when he set an AHL record with 304 minutes of shutout hockey. I think he’s worth picking up this summer in keeper leagues. He won’t join the Penguins next season, but he could become backup in 2016-17. If all goes according to plan, he could start stealing the Fleury job by late 2017-18. But how often do things go according to plan?
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Some NHL playoff notes:
Matt Cooke has an undisclosed injury and may not suit up for the Wild to start.
The Red Wings will dress Landon Ferraro, Teemu Pulkkinen and Alexey Marchenko. With Cole and Franzen out for the playoffs, and Justin Abdelkader may still be out as well.
Max Pacioretty is “possible” for Game 1.
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The Ottawa Senators are the hottest team in the NHL this side of the Minnesota Wild. Yesterday they lost assistant coach Mark Reeds to cancer. The sickness took him quickly, as it was only 13 months ago when it was announced that he had it. Can you imagine? My condolences to his family.
The Sens could take a lot of inspiration and motivation from this tough news.
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I’ve been meaning to post something about the newsletter. I’ve had a newsletter for a couple of years now and some of you may not know that. I send about five newsletters per year, really just announcing when a Guide is ready for download. This acts as a reminder (because I’m sure sometimes you kick yourself because you forgot to pick it up earlier). To add yourself to this newsletter, simply go here and check off “Announcements Only”. There is another option for a Fantasy Hockey Newsletter…but we don’t have one. Not yet, anyway. I wish I could say that one is on the way, but honestly it’s been on the backburner for a couple of years now. You can check off that box too if you’d like, for when we finally get around to it.
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Top 10 goals of the year. These are gorgeous, a case could be made for any of them to be No.1: