Best of the West (2015)

Doran Libin

2015-04-20

JamieBenn1

 

Looking at the best of the Western Conference from 2014-15

 

As the playoffs begin it is time for a quick look back at the players who had the greatest fantasy impact this past season. For these awards the criteria is the player who had the most impact in terms of points or wins as well as peripheral categories. For a player to have had a major impact he cannot have missed a significant chunk of time to injury, that being the case you will not find Patrick Kane or Mark Giordano on these lists. By missing as many games as Kane and Giordano did respectively their overall all impact was severely diminished. Giordano for example may have been the best fantasy defenseman in the game before his injury but after missing 20 games his overall impact is closer to the top 15 as opposed to the top five. While a high level of per game production is certainly desirable durability and the ability to play a full season can deliver just as much benefit. 

53.6

148

Shea Weber

45

0.58

1.24

237

40.3

166

Roman Josi

55

0.68

1.50

201

45.6

53

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

43

0.52

1.25

264

42.2

167

 

This is really a two-horse race, so with no further ado the three also-rans. First, Oliver Ekman-Larsson finds his way into this group largely because of his impressive goal total. He was one of two defensemen this year to score more than 20 goals, outpacing the next highest scoring of the five candidates by five goals. OEL launches bombs from the blueline at an impressive rate as he was one of only 10 defensemen to take more than 200 shots and one of only two to take more than 250 shots. That puts him in impressive company with Erik Karlsson. The knock on OEL though is his low overall point total as he suffers from playing on one of the worst teams in hockey, effectively making him an also-ran.

Shea Weber and Roman Josi are the other two also-rans. Josi has the edge in points by 10 as he produces points more efficiently and is a part of more Predator even strength goals. Josi does not shoot nearly as much as Weber but where he really falters is in hitting. He doled out almost 100 fewer hits than the next gentlest candidate. That combination puts him slightly behind Weber in terms of overall impact but it should be clear that Josi deserves to be considered a peer of Weber as opposed to his apprentice. That is especially the case as the Predators score more when Josi is apart than when Weber is apart.

Neither of the two Nashville defensemen are on the same level as Brent Burns or Dustin Byfuglien though. It may not seem close with Burns outscoring Byfuglien by 15 points. Byfuglien, however has a similar edge in hits, having out hit Burns by nearly 50. Burns on the other hand has a sizeable advantage in shots as he nearly cleared 250 shots. The real edge for Burns is the 13 extra games played he had over Byfuglien. With Byfuglien's production rates he likely would have ended up much closer in points and after having closed the gap in shots would have significantly increased his edge in hits. In the end Byfuglien probably had more impact per game but Burns wins overall. Again the argument for the importance of durability plays out in deciding between the best two defensemen as it did for the best forward.

 

Best Goalie Candidates

 

Player

Wins

Shutouts

QS%

SV%

PK SV%

Hi-Danger%

Devan Dubnyk

36

6

0.69

0.929

0.903

0.865

Pekka Rinne

41

4

0.72

0.923

0.861

0.852

Corey Crawford

32

2

0.70

0.924

0.884

0.844

 

Jonathan Quick almost made this conversation but his numbers did not measure up to three goalies in the above list. Quick's wins and shutouts are impressive but he lagged far behind in save percentage, quality start percentage, penalty killing save percentage and high danger save percentage. That suggests he did not contribute as much to the wins he did get as the three goalies who did make the list. The lower quality start percentage basically means that Quick had fewer games where he had a save percentage above the league average. His lower penalty killing save means that he was not as able to carry his team while short handed. His lower save percentage in high danger areas suggests that he may not be as good as the other three, however one season is not enough to fully make that assertion.

Corey Crawford on the other hand does not have the wins and shutouts that Jonathan Quick does likely due to the time he missed because of injury. He is very much deserving of being in the conversation in every respect though. Crawford's impact gets downplayed a lot because he plays for Chicago and as such does not get nearly enough credit. This year Chicago was not the shot suppression monster that it had been in years past. As such Crawford's numbers reflect the fact that he was relied on significantly more as the backbone for Chicago's wins. In the end though those missed games serve to count Crawford out.

That leaves Rinne and Dubnyk as the last two men standing. Both goalies had very impressive years as Rinne was the story of the first half and Dubnyk carried the Wild to the playoffs in the second half. The differences between the two are pretty small as Rinne has five more wins but Dubnyk has two more shutouts. In the end thought Dubnyk had a much greater impact on his team and was much more of a reason for the wins he got. Take for example Dubnyk's penalty killing save percentage of .903, the fourth highest in the league. That was a huge factor for the Wild a by the time Dubnyk took over in the Wild nets the goalies had a sub .800 save percentage on the penalty kill. What really puts Dubnyk over the top as the best goalie in the west is the 38 straight games he played upon arriving in Minnesota, making him the most stable bet of the second half.

 

 

 

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency S.J Players
23.3 FABIAN ZETTERLUND MIKAEL GRANLUND WILLIAM EKLUND
19.7 ALEXANDER WENNBERG LUKE KUNIN BARCLAY GOODROW
16.4 TYLER TOFFOLI NIKOLAI KOVALENKO MACKLIN CELEBRINI

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