0.65 (S.H.)

1.46 (R.C.)

2.31 (S.H.)

3.20 (R.C.)

0.15 (S.H.)

0.17 (R.C.)

2011-12

1.66 (S.H.)

0.80 (R.C.)

2.29 (S.H.)

3.56 (R.C.)

0.45 (S.H.)

1.15 (R.C.)

2.82 (S.H.)

3.09 (R.C.)

0.28 (S.H.)

0.22 (R.C.)

One thing we see right away is both players appear to be losing some of their multi-cat steam. For example, when looking at Hits, Blocked Shots, and PIM over these four seasons, both posted their two worst outputs in two of those three categories within the past two campaigns. And neither player had his best production in any single category occur in 2014-15. That having been said, Hartnell's drop in multi-cat production has been less precipitous.

And looking at this data, the mystery deepens with regard to Hartnell's differing production in 2014-15 versus 2013-14, as we can see that his Shots rate for the two seasons were nearly identical and his PP production was actually better in his less productive 2013-14 campaign. My hunch is still that Hartnell might've benefitted from unsustainable good luck in 2014-15, and we'll look at that next.

Luck-Based Metrics

Here we see a precise explanation of Hartnell's differing production in 2013-14 versus 2014-15, as he would've had five fewer goals this past season and three additional goals in 2013-14 had his personal shooting % in each campaign been in line with his career average (11.4%). Lo and behold, there we have the eight point gap.

Also, while Hartnell's 2012-13 numbers don't completely forgive his dismal production that season, they do help explain why his numbers were so bad, as his PDO and IPPs were dreadful both in general and as compared to his normal averages. Beyond that, we see Hartnell was able to post 60 points in 2014-15 with his second worst PDO and OZ% among these four seasons, and with IPPs that, while high, were comparable to 2011-12 and in the vicinity of 2013-14.

For Callahan, his 2014-15 output coincided with his highest PDO, Personal Shooting % and 5×5 IPP among these seasons, as well as his second highest OZ% and 5×4 IPP. Even still, Tampa's team PDOs runs high (1010 for 2014-15, which was tied for fourth highest in the NHL) and his OZ% is likely indicative of his ongoing role on the team, as further evidenced by his SH Ice Time having cratered.

All in all, the data shows that while neither player should expect to see his point total increase by five or more next season, a decrease by five points or more would be equally unrealistic.

Value and Injuries

Both players provided very good value in 2014-15, as Hartnell (who's LW-only eligible) was drafted on average as the 27th LW but ended the season being ranked 13th and Callahan (who's RW-only eligible) was selected on average as the 58th RW but by the end of the season was ranked 28th. The question is whether those rankings are appropriate or, instead, indicative of either player having a perceived value that doesn't reflect his actual value.

For starters, the 28th rated LW was Jonathan Huberdeau, while the 13th rated RW was Radim Vrbata. Interestingly, Huberdeau had 54 points, just Callahan like, although Huberdeau played in two additional games. And Vrbata posted 63 points in 79 games, versus 60 in 77 for Hartnell.

Given that both Callahan and Hartnell provide more across the board multi-cat production than either Vrbata or Huberdeau, it's safe to say that – if anything – both Hartnell and Callahan had lower perceived value than was justified, at least for leagues other than points only. Of course since they both ended the season with a much improved ranking, it's possible their perceived value deficit will vanish next season and could even adjust so much that it'll be too high.

In terms of injuries, Hartnell holds an edge, as Callahan has rightfully earned his label as a Band-Aid Boy trainee, what with missing five or more games in all but one full season and 22+ games in two of the past four campaigns. But we need to keep an eye on Hartnell, as after a stretch of five 80+ game seasons he missed 16 in 2012-13 and a handful in each of the past two campaigns.

Who Wins?

In points only one-year leagues, I'll give Callahan a somewhat narrow win, as his spot appears more secure and he should provide poolies with slightly better value versus cost despite his admittedly higher injury risk. Plus, Hartnell seemed to benefit more from favorable/unsustainable luck last season. It's a harder decision in one year multi-cat leagues, as Hartnell's output has held a bit steadier overall. Even still – the same factors (Hartnell's spot being at risk and having likely benefitted more from luck last season) are still relevant, and likely put Callahan over the top by a tiny margin.

In keeper leagues, the nearly three year age difference and more secure spot favor Callahan more than in one-year leagues, although we need to keep in mind that players younger than Callahan (cough cough Dustin Brown cough cough) have broken down at an even earlier age. My advice is to tread lightly in terms of giving any significant future value in order to acquire either player for the long haul, but also not to shy away from grabbing either one if you're aiming to go for a win in the next couple of seasons.