Luck-Based Metrics

Jokinen's 5×4 IPP for 2014-15 isn't included, since as part of the plan to keep him extra fresh for the playoffs, he's yet to log the 50+ minutes needed for it to be charted.

Looking at Stamkos' IPP numbers, you'd think he'd be on track for a career best season, rather than his worst output since his rookie year. To put this in better perspective, his IPP numbers indicate that for every 100 points scored while he's on the ice at 5×5 and 5×4 he's had a goal or an assist on 79% of them. Decreased production in the face of an increased percentage share of points means he's generating less overall offense despite the fact that he's still only 25 years old and supposed to be still improving.

And although Stamkos' Personal Shooting % is down a bit from his career average of 17.2%, his OZ% is up by well more than should be needed to balance out any effect that would have. And last but not least, his PDO is within normal range. All in all, troubling signs abound.

With Jokinen, what stands out for 2014-15 is his remarkably unlucky Personal Shooting %. How unlucky exactly? Only one forward (Tomas Kopecky) has both taken more shots and appeared in more games than Jokinen yet also has a lower personal shooting %. What's more – each of these other three seasons Jokinen had one or more majorly unlucky metrics, as in 2011-12 there was his 47.9% OZ%, while in 2012-13 it was his jaw-droppingly low PDO and 5×4 IPP, and in 2011-12 it was an even lower OZ%. Once he manages to avoid bad luck crossing his path, Jokinen should be able to coast back to 50+ points and could even surpass 60.

Ownership and Injuries

In Yahoo leagues, Stamkos is eligible as both a center (where he was drafted 2nd overall on average prior to the season) and RW (drafted 1st overall on average). And although he's still 100% owned in Yahoo leagues, he's now only 6th most valuable at center and 8th at RW. Thus, Stamkos has retained his ultra-high perceived value despite his actual value having slipped quite a bit, which is a bad combination. Conversely, Jokinen – eligible at center only – somehow escaped the draft radar of poolies and remains criminally unowned in 98% of leagues.

Jokinen played in 76+ games in every full season from 1999-2000 to 2013-14, making him one of only two NHLers (Patrick Marleau is the other) who can lay claim to the kind of consistent track record of good health poolies crave. In contrast, not only did Stamkos miss more than half the 2013-14 campaign due to a leg injury, but he's gone on record as saying that he might not ever truly be back to 100%.

Yet another major edge to Jokinen in these areas.

Who Wins? And Lessons to Be Learned.

Those who've made it this far no doubt realize this is an April Fools' Day ruse.

But despite that, I didn't want to abandon the mission of Cage Match to help educate poolies, which is why there are lessons to be learned from what you just read.

For one, although I definitely went overboard in talking down Stamkos, if you own him in a keeper you have genuine reason to be concerned. Whether because of the departure of Martin St. Louis, lingering effects of his leg injury, the emergence of Tyler Johnson, or a combination of these factors, what we're seeing from Stamkos now is not what was expected and is nowhere near his three season stretch from 2009-10 to 2011-12.

But unfortunately for Stamkos owners it also doesn't look like 2014-15 will be a blip in the radar, as he's been "luckier" than ever and his Ice Time is down – not a good combination at all. At this stage, it might be unrealistic to expect a return to 90 point territory for Stamkos, with roughly 45 goals and 40 assists perhaps being closer to his viable ceiling for the rest of his 20s and with there being a greater chance of him finishing with below point per game production than above, especially if scoring continues to be down overall.

As for Jokinen, while of course he's a well past his prime veteran who might not even earn an NHL deal as a UFA this summer, what I wrote shows that you can put – or at least try to put – a positive spin on nearly anything in fantasy hockey. It's best to keep that in mind when trading, as if you're looking to unload a player with Jokinen's subpar pedigree you need to find ways to point out things about him that can make him seem better than he really is. But you also need to be able to sniff out if a fellow poolie is trying to do the same to you before pulling the trigger on a deal.

Lastly, although true numbers don't lie, be sure to get to the actual data behind the numbers – the story behind the story, so to speak. For example, although Jokinen does have a 0.83 points per game scoring rate in the playoffs, that came via five points in six games. And while Jokinen did indeed tally two points against the Blues while he was still with Nashville this season, it was his only multi-point effort of the season. As for Stamkos, although his shorthanded Ice Time has been cut by more than half this season versus last, the difference is only 22 seconds (34 seconds last season, 12 for 2014-15).

Beyond that, be wary of things being glossed over, as often that's done to make it easier to (dis)prove a point. The most glaring examples here are Stamkos' still top tier goal scoring and the fact that Jokinen is now more often a healthy scratch than not. Long story short – it's indeed possible to stretch or distort the truth to make things sound a lot better or worse than they really are without outright lying.

Back to the normal Cage Match format next week. Until then, let this be a reminder to take anything you read today with a large grain of salt.