The Contrarian – One Hundred Point Plan

Ian Gooding

2015-04-05

JohnTavares

Why are there more 100-point teams that 100-point players right now?

We and others wrote about the almost certain probability that there will not be a single 100-point player in the NHL this season.

Some like the New York Post's Brett Cyrgalis, (NHL ref’s dangerous let-’em-play policy is killing offense) postulate that it is because of the reduced number of penalties being called. Fewer penalties means fewer power play opportunities and thus fewer goals and total offense.

John Tavares says, "I've said this before and I don't try to be critical of it, but there is less being called" in Cyrgalis' article.

It makes sense and the data does support that train of thought.

Then there are the add-ons like, "The goalie equipment is huge, and the nets are the same size. The talent pool is now fully international, and the teams are deeper," writes Cyrgalis.

He concludes that "if the league wants more scoring — which you would think it does — they have to start with the officiating."

But whoever identifies that teams have no incentive to score more?

They don't play to win. They play not to lose in regulation time. Why do they act this way?

Because it takes a lot of team points to make the playoffs these days.

Take a look at the standings. Your team may soon need to get 100 points in order to make the playoffs.

Season

Teams

Games

100 Point Teams

100 Point Players

Min Playoff Points

Total Goals

Total Power Plays

% of Max Points

Goals / Game

Power Plays / Game

2014-15 *

30

82

13

0

95

6573

7187

57.93%

2.67

2.92

2013-14

30

82

10

1

91

6573

8055

55.49%

2.67

3.27

2012-13

30

48

8

1

55

3822

4785

57.29%

2.65

3.32

2011-12

30

82

10

1

92

6545

8133

56.10%

2.66

3.31

2010-11

30

82

8

1

93

6721

8716

56.71%

2.73

3.54

2009-10

30

82

11

4

88

6803

9136

53.66%

2.77

3.71

2008-09

30

82

7

3

91

7006

10228

55.49%

2.85

4.16

2007-08

30

82

5

2

91

6691

10541

55.49%

2.72

4.28

2006-07

30

82

11

7

92

7082

11935

56.10%

2.88

4.85

2005-06

30

82

10

7

92

7443

14390

56.10%

3.03

5.85

2003-04

30

82

10

0

91

6334

10427

55.49%

2.57

4.24

2002-03

30

82

7

3

83

6530

10876

50.61%

2.65

4.42

2001-02

30

82

3

0

87

6442

10154

53.05%

2.62

4.13

2000-01

30

82

7

2

88

6782

11282

53.66%

2.76

4.59

1999-00 **

28

82

7

📢 advertisement:

0

85

6306

9263

51.83%

2.75

4.03

.* – projected values for this season

** – the first season that started getting points for Overtime losses

(most of the stats were compiled from NHL.com and www.wikipedia.com)

I define a 100-point season as 100 / 82 (the current number of games) * the number of games played in that season.

Min Playoff Points – is the minimum number of points a team needed to earn in order to make the playoffs. Yes, there are times when a team with more points did not make the playoffs.

% of Max Points – is the percentage of points the last playoff team needed to earn that season. Most people talk about being .500. I just put it in a percentage format.

From the table, you can see the amount of power plays per game and the trend is downward. So are the total number of goals.

The slight blip we got from the 2005-06 season did not last and wasn't as big as some people make it out to be either.

The majority of those seasons listed on the table above have three or less players earning 100 points per season.

Take a look at how many teams earned 100 points though. A lot more than the players and the number is increasing!

Yes, the current system with the loser point is to blame. If I get my team into overtime, then I've earned 50% of my maximum. If I lose in overtime or the shootout, it is not too bad because I am hoping that I will win enough games to propel me a head of the other teams.

What did the numbers look like before the loser point system was introduced?

Season

Teams

Games

100 Point Teams

100 Point Players

Min Playoff Points

Total Goals

Total Power Plays

% of Max Points

Goals / Game

Power Plays / Game

1998-99

27

82

3

3

78

5830

9696

47.56%

2.63

4.38

1997-98

26

82

3

1

78

5624

9884

47.56%

2.64

4.64

1996-97

26

82

4

2

77

6214

8740

46.95%

2.91

4.10

1995-96

26

82

4

12

78

6701

10746

47.56%

3.14

5.04

1994-95

26

48

5

5

42

3727

5437

43.75%

2.99

4.36

1993-94

26

84

1

7

82

7081

10593

48.81%

3.24

4.85

1992-93

24

84

5

17

85

7311

10636

50.60%

3.63

5.28

1991-92

22

80

3

11

65

6123

8834

40.63%

3.48

5.02

1990-91

21

80

5

10

65

5805

7682

40.63%

3.46

4.57

1989-90

21

80

3

14

73

6188

7697

45.63%

3.68

4.58

1988-89

21

80

2

10

66

6286

8458

41.25%

3.74

5.03

1987-88

21

80

3

12

52

6237

9175

32.50%

3.71

5.46

There were more players earning 100 or more points and fewer teams doing the same. Notice the number of points needed to make the playoffs.

Sure there were more power plays, but even when the ratio is similar to the 2005-06 season, there were more players getting over the 100-point mark.

I have calculated the numbers all the way to the 1942-43 season, except I do not have power play information.

From 1979-80 through to 1986-87, there were often over ten players cracking the mark. Teams only needed 40% of the points to be playoff bound. There was an average of 3.84 goals per game.

From 1967-68 through to 1978-79, there were about four players and teams needed about 45% to make the playoffs. The average goals per game was 3.19.

From 1949-50 to 1966-67, in a six-team league playing a 70 game schedule, there were only one or two teams that would reach the 100 point projection, and more often than not there were none or one player that would earn 100 points. Teams had to earn about 47% to 50% of the maximum points available to make the playoffs. The average goals per game was 2.77.

From 1946-47 to 1948-49, where the six teams played a 60-game schedule, the results were similar to the 1949-50 to 1966-67 stretch. One would figure that with ten additional games added to the schedule that it would generate more 100 point projected players, but it did not. There was actually an average of 2.94 goals per game.

Lastly from 1942-43 to 1945-46, teams played a 50-game schedule and averaged 3.68 goals per game. There was one year where ten players got to a projected 100-point mark. In that same period, mostly one team would do the same. Teams usually needed to earn 50% to make the playoffs.

The league should ease off on the extra point. Simply eliminate it. You'll see more scoring because who wants to let a five-minute overtime period or a shootout determine the win. It would be too unpredictable.

Teams would be motivated to win in regulation time. They'll let their players be more offensive in order to do it too.

That is my one hundred point plan.

The Contrarian – Ilya Kovalchuk and Expansion

The Contrarian – Dead Pucks

The Contrarian – Their Fate Rests in Their Hands

 

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 29 - 19:03 BUF vs N.J

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
NATHAN MACKINNON COL
JACK QUINN BUF
FILIP FORSBERG NSH

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
IGOR SHESTERKIN NYR
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI
LOGAN THOMPSON VGK
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency FLA Players
21.1 SAM REINHART EETU LUOSTARINEN ANTON LUNDELL
18.9 CARTER VERHAEGHE MATTHEW TKACHUK SAM BENNETT
16.3 VLADIMIR TARASENKO EVAN RODRIGUES ALEKSANDER BARKOV

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: