Arizona

If the Oilers are looking to make the jump from doormat to up and comer, the Coyotes are firmly going 'Awful for Auston'. This is evident as their goals per game fell by half a goal per game even though their power play remained at 20%. The bulk of the reason for the Coyotes scoring woes are the shot and a half less they took each game and scoring on less than seven percent of their shots. In addition to scoring less the Coyotes gave up an additional 2.2 shots per game as they gave up more than 33 shots per game. In combination with a dismal year from Mike Smith, his save percentage fell below league average, the Coyotes gave up a ton of goals. Smith will have to rebound next year in a big way as the Coyotes look like they will be an abomination.

Two key factors to Mike Smith becoming a high end fantasy goalie were Dave Tippett and Sean Burke, both of whom have been rumoured to be on their way out. Burke has been credited with rebuilding a number of goalies in Arizona including Bryzgalov, Smith and Dubnyk. Mike Smith's numbers this year resemble his career in Tampa and Dallas more than his Arizona numbers. Sean Burke was not the only reason for Smith's resurrection as a lot of credit has to be given to Dave Tippett. Tippett's defense first style, keeping shots to the outside, has helped these goalies thrive. The tradeoff to this defense first style is that the Coyotes have not averaged more than 2.5 goals per game since the 2010-11 season. In that time only three Coyotes have broken 60 points in a season, none since 2011-12. The best season by a Coyote still on the roster in that time was Mikkel Boedker's 51 points in 2013-14. From a style of play perspective the departure of Tippett would only help to bring in a more offensive-centric system. With a roster that will likely be bereft of NHL talent this will not necessarily mean more offense, just more entertainment.

Of the existing Coyotes two players should be the focal point points of the offense. Oliver Ekman-Larsson had 12 points in 19 games after the trade of Keith Yandle which bodes well except that there are three outliers in OEL stretch numbers. After the trade deadline OEL saw a huge boost in his offensive zone starts going from 4.7% relative zone starts on the season to 19.4% after the deadline. Meaning that with Yandle being traded OEL got the offensive zone starts instead of youngsters like Brandon Gormley. Second, down the stretch OEL scored on over 10% of his shots, a full two points higher than his next best season. Third, even though it is a small sample size OEL's shot rate went down slightly after the deadline going from 3.25 to 3, meaning 20 fewer shots a season. How OEL is used will likely dictate how his season goes, if he is the defensive backbone he will struggle. In a more offensive capacity he could weather the storm. For an in-depth look at OEL he was featured in this column here.

The other Coyote to look at is Mikkel Boedker, whose 2.1 points per 60 minutes played continued his production rate from the previous season. There are some worrisome signs for Boedker though as his success this season was based on converting on 17.7% of his shots, a full six points than his career average. Boedker only took 79 shots in 45 games down from 166 in 82 games the previous season. Boedker will have to be a volume shooter next year because there will not be a lot of other talented players out there with whom to work. Boedker showed a little of this shooter's mentality this year as he nearly doubled his shot rate on the power play. Shane Doan will still be in Arizona but at 38, and after falling to 1.5 points per 60 he is clearly on the decline but if there is another current Coyote to watch outside of OEL and Boedker it is Martin Hanzal. He will be entering his ninth season as a 28 year old after posting his best points per 60 this season despite facing his toughest zone starts to date and seeing his least amount of power play time since 2010-11. Without Vermette Hanzal should be leaned upon for more offensive output with defensive centers like Kyle Chipchura behind him.

The interesting aspect of the Coyotes next season will be how the influx of youth affects the roster. WJC stars Anthony Duclair and Max Domi look ready to contribute next year. Brandon Gormley and Connor Murphy have been waiting for years to get their opportunity to contribute. Newcomer Klas Dahlbeck is finally getting an opportunity after being traded to Arizona from Chicago, however outside of one AHL season he has all the makings of a defensive defenseman. Arizona will be very bad next year but there should be lots of opportunities for their burgeoning prospect base to develop as the Coyotes shoot for Arizona native Auston Matthews.