Saturday, May 16
Neil Parker
2015-05-16
Ducks-Hawks, Paul Stastny and more playoff performances of note.
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After looking at the Rangers-Lightning series in yesterday’s ramblings, a peek at the Western Conference Final is on tap today.
There will be offense, as Anaheim and Chicago have averaged 3.89 goals and 3.2 goals per game, respectively. Interestingly, though, Anaheim’s plus-17 goal differential is almost three times better than the next best team’s (Tampa Bay plus-6), and it is four times as high as Chicago’s (plus-4).
Still, the quality of competition has been markedly different, which is part of the equation going forward, too. Anaheim, a Corey Perry injury scare aside, has cruised through nine games. Chicago, meanwhile, battled hard in two rounds, and although they swept Minnesota, three of the four games were close battles.
Two things stick out as potential tipping points for Chicago. First, and it is amazing to say this, Michael Rozsival’s injury could be a serious blow. Chicago has limited Kimmo Timonen‘s minutes, and he was considered more fitting for the lineup than David Rundblad. So where does Rundblad fit, and how much confidence does head coach Joel Quenneville have in Rundblad?
Secondly, can Brad Richards or Antoine Vermette elevate their play and matchup against Ryan Getzlaf or Ryan Kesler successfully? The Getzlaf-Kesler one-two punch changed the entire dynamic of the Western Conference. Although it wasn’t on full display through the regular season, it was a postseason-inspired move, and through two rounds, it has been a success.
This will be a grueling series for Chicago, if they’re only confident in rolling out four defensemen. The Blackhawks have the edge in winger depth, and they’ve overcome the glaring lack of a No. 2 center in the past. Do they have another Cup run in them?
Adam Lowry – In penalty minute formats, it can be difficult to obtain tallies in the column without taking a hit in other categories, especially in deeper leagues. Here is an upside candidate. Always passed the eye test in my viewing, and while the offense won’t jump off the page, his heady game should allow him to take another step forward next season. Plus, the Jets’ winger corps is filled with unrestricted free agents, so perhaps he shifts to the wing?
Bo Horvat – Admittedly, I don’t have the viewing on this guy that I’d like. Perhaps, the Canucks lovers and haters could fill in some gaps. With that said, his pedigree paired with his second-half production is intriguing. Including the playoffs, Horvat finished with 12 goals and 10 helpers over his final 45 games. For a 20-year-old center playing a depth role, it would have to be deemed a successful Year 1.
Down
Sam Bennett – This isn’t a negative take on Bennett’s play, but that he’ll likely be over drafted next fall. Joining a team rolling with momentum in the playoffs for a 10-game stretch with your own confidence sky high is one thing. Producing over the rigors of an entire season at the highest level is something different entirely. At best, Bennett is an endgame flier in deep formats.
Henrik Zetterberg – While a three-helper playoff showing is a sign, it isn’t reason to toss the veteran into bust territory. However, with goal scoring at a premium, Zetterberg has failed to reach 20 in each of the last three seasons, and entering his age-35 season, a decline looms. Sometimes veteran’s production fades and other times they fall off the map. Zetterberg’s played a lot of hockey over the years, and his lingering back problems aren’t encouraging.
Thomas Vanek – On the heels of his worst point-per-game season since his rookie year, Vanek laid a dud in the post season. It is a chicken vs. egg situation. Vanek wants top-six minutes and linemates, and head coach Mike Yeo wants Vanek to earn it. News flash Mr. Vanek, you’re too slow footed and soft on the puck. There will come a time in drafts when Vanek becomes a viable flier, it’ll be late, though.
Jonas Brodin – Just 21, there is a lot of room for offensive and fantasy growth. At this point, though, it appears Brodin is morphing into a safe real-world rearguard with limited fantasy value. Perhaps a fitting comparison would be Antron Stralman’s career path?
Andrei Markov – A solid regular season didn’t translate to playoff success, and Markov looked slow. He was exposed defensively, and while it isn’t a major fantasy concern, the potential of fewer minutes is. Although, sheltered minutes geared to more offensive situations might not kill his value. All said, the 36-year-old is trending in the wrong direction.
Anders Lee – It is difficult to imagine a 25-goal scorer chilling in the press box, so Lee’s fantasy stock might not be in that much trouble. However, it is telling of where Lee stands in head coach Jack Capuano’s opinion. Plus, much of Lee’s damage was with done alongside John Tavares during the regular season.
Beau Bennett – Similar to Kyle Palmieri, who was discussed yesterday, it would appear Bennett enters the 2015-16 season on the outside of a top-six job. Injuries have been an issue, but at 23, Bennett is in danger of being leapfrogged by Kasperi Kapanen. Plus, there isn’t a lot of room, either. What are the Penguins going to do with Bennett? He is a restricted free agent, after all.
Troy Brouwer – At times his line looked dominant, but his high-minute total was more reflective of his role on both special teams units. At even strength, Brouwer just wasn’t a big part of the offensive plans in Washington. The role on the No. 1 power play is the only thing keeping his fantasy stock ticking, and there is no guarantee he remains there next season. A dip below 20 goals with approximately 35 points shouldn’t be shocking.
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While writing these and trying to look ahead, Paul Stastny‘s fantasy stock will be an interesting follow next season. The Blues return the exact same forward corps next season, and while Stastny should be expected to have a better offensive season, will he crack the top six? Exposure to Vladimir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz or T.J. Oshie would help Stastny’s fantasy stock significantly.
So with a shakeup possible, and perhaps much needed, does Stastny become a sleeper upon a potential expanded offensive role with the Blues?
His production this season likely has his stock at an all-time low, and his game was generally underrated to begin with. Fantasy sports are all about extracting value in the late middle rounds, and there may be huge profit potential with Stastny.