2015 Offseason Fantasy Look: Los Angeles & Dallas

Doran Libin

2015-05-11

AnzeKopitar

 

Offseason fantasy hockey outlook for the LA Kings and the Dallas Stars…

Los Angeles

The Kings missed the playoffs despite scoring 14 more goals this season than in 2013/14. That was offset by allowing 31 more goals based on allowing an extra shot per game and their save percentage dropping one point. It is probably more telling that their shot differential fell by a shot and a half as they were not their usual possession beasts selves. A big reason for this is the loss of Slava Voynov, a top four defensemen, for the majority of the season. That forced Doughty into the 30 minute per game range and forced other defensemen into more minutes in tougher situations. The result was the Kings allowed more goals, were less dominant and could not complete their traditional late season closing kick.

Dallas cut down on the shots they allowed by half a shot per game yet they still managed to allow 32 more goals this season. That is what happens when your starting goalie implodes and the team's save percentage drops more than a point and a half. On the other hand the Stars were one of the best offensive teams in the league scoring almost 3.25 goals per game. They did this on the back of a slightly elevated shooting percentage and a power play that clicked on almost one of every five opportunities.

For the Stars to bounce back they need Kari Lehtonen to return to form. There was a lot made of Lehtonen's struggle to stay involved in the game while facing fewer shots though he still faced around 30 shots per game for the year. The Stars still allow close to seven high danger shots per game, the area Lehtonen faltered the most. He allowed 21 more goals on 29 fewer of those shots than he did the year before with his save percentage falling by more than four points. In all Lehtonen had his worst regular season save percentage since debuting in the NHL. At 32 years old this would seem to be a little early for Lehtonen to start falling apart. He is signed for three more years at a cap hit of 5.9 million per year so he will be given every chance to succeed.

Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn have both averaged more than three points per 60 minutes in each of the last two years. They have both averaged more than three shots per game in each of the last two years, with Seguin producing shots at a rate that would have seen him break 300 this year. They have solidified their spots as forwards and one of the best duos in the league. The question becomes who steps up as their third wheel. In 2013/14 the answer was Valeri Nichushkin. This year it was journeyman Patrick Eaves by he year's end. When Nichushkin lined up with Benn and Seguin the threesome averaged 4.45 GF60 whereas they averaged 3.23 GF60 with Eaves. While the threesome did better with Nichushkin, Eaves had the better individual numbers. Nichushkin has the much higher upside but can provide more balance on the second line, meaning that if Eaves re-signs he has placed himself in prime position to have a big year.

Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky were supposed to provide secondary offense to add balance to the Stars' attack. Spezza did that to an extent except that much of his success was with Seguin and Benn, negating any balance. Where Spezza had the most success was on the power play where he put up 26 points in 81 games. As long as he has a spot on the power play he will remain fantasy relevant. Hemsky struggled for the bulk of this season. He had his lowest shooting percentage since the lockout season of 2012/13. He also slipped under two shots per game, a trajectory he has been on for a number of years. Hemsky will be 33 next season and everything in his numbers suggests he is on his way out, even his chemistry with Spezza seems amiss.

There are three depth options of note in Dallas: Cody Eakin, Antoine Roussel and Ryan Garbutt. Eakin is one of those players who betters everyone with whom he plays. He found great success with Benn and Seguin at points during the year but at the end was too valuable in a depth role. Eakin went from 4.09 GF60 on the top line to 2.47 GF60 on the third line, which fits with the fall from 50% offensive zone starts to just under 43%. When playing with Roussel and Garbutt the zone starts fell to 40%. As it stands unless one these three breaks into the top six they will be more useful for peripheral stats than offensive production.

The Stars' defense corps is akin to building a mansion on a cardboard foundation. Relying on Trevor Daley to play top line minutes against the other teams best is asking for trouble. Daley put up 38 points, on 14% shooting, but got caved in with the opposition getting 53.5% of the shots when he is on the ice. Goligoski on the other hand put up 36 points, on 3.3% shooting, while going even in possession. These two will not be nearly as close next season as Goligoski be leaned on more as the younger and better defenseman. The surprise success on the Dallas defense was John Klingberg as he outpointed both Goligoski and Daley, with 40 points in 65 games, on 11.2% shooting. He averaged the most power play minutes of the Dallas defense, and while he will not score on over 10% of his shots next season, a repeat 40 point season is not out of line.

UFA: Patrick Eaves, Shawn Horcoff, Travis Morin, Jhonas Enroth

RFA: John Klingberg, Jamie Oleksiak, Curtis McKenzie

 

2015 Offseason Fantasy Look: San Jose & Colorado      
2015 Offseason Fantasy Look: Edmonton & Arizona      
2015-16 Fantasy Outlook: Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils      
2015-16 Fantasy Outlook: Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs      

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