Frozen Forensics: Justin Faulk
Derek Gibson
2015-05-22
Is Justin Faulk ready to return an elite fantasy season?
Offensive production from the blue line can mean the difference between winning your fantasy league, or leave you scratching your head asking, "Why in the world did I not scoop HIM up when I had the chance?!"
Anybody can draft Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang (for you Mike Tyson's Punchout fans, he's the NHL's version of Glass Joe), or P.K. Subban, but the real test comes when you have to decide who the breakout candidates are: the rearguards that can potentially take that next step from 35-40 points into that 50 point range. Enter Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Justin Faulk.
You'll notice I highlighted a few numbers from this past season. Yes, I know minus-19 is killer in fantasy (In one of my keeper leagues it's a full -1, so a -4 night can bury you!!), but if you take out the fact that he ended the month of October at -8, it's really sort of manageable from a fantasy perspective, especially when you consider that he had 20 power-play points (including seven power-play goals).
And as you can see, his numbers have steadily climbed each season. Furthermore, he averaged 24:25 minutes per game, which included 2:42 minutes per game with the man advantage. Getting over two and a half minutes of power-play time per game is huge in Fantasy Land, and with 40.8 percent of his total points in 2014-15 coming from the PP, it is easy to see why Faulk will be an attractive option come draft time. Throw in 238 shots on goal (a healthy 2.90 per game), and Faulk could very well see himself enter the Top 15 fantasy defensemen.
Speaking of that, let's take a look at where his point total stacked up compared to his peers. Of the top 100 scorers, 13 were d-men:
Erik Karlsson 66 (17.7)
Brent Burns 60 (110.8)
PK Subban 60 (16.7)
Dennis Wideman 56 (158.4)
Roman Josi 55 (149.2)
John Carlson 55 (121.7)
Kris Letang 54 (73.8)
Tyson Barrie 53 (114.6)
Mark Streit 52 (126.4)
Keith Yandle 52 (59.3)
Andrei Markov 50 (134.4)
Justin Faulk 49 (124.8)
Mark Giordano 48 (99.5)
The numbers in parentheses indicates where those players were drafted on average in Yahoo! Fantasy Hockey Leagues. As you can see, Faulk is certainly right in the middle of this pack, but there also some noticeable back-end names absent from this list that just missed the cut. Names like: Kevin Shattenkirk, Dustin Byfuglien, Ryan Suter, Alex Pietrangelo, Sami Vatanen, T.J. Brodie, and of course, Shea Weber.
There are going to be some detractors out there, and I can understand why: the Carolina Hurricanes. The Canes (or Whalers for me) haven't exactly lit the NHL on fire for, say, seven or eight years now, but that could also be seen as a plus, as Faulk will get a bundle of playing time, in all situations. And using the Dobber Hockey Frozen Pool tools, he's not exactly playing with All-Stars on D every night:
45.23% |
EV |
27 FAULK,JUSTIN – 4 SEKERA,ANDREJ |
24.3% |
EV |
27 FAULK,JUSTIN – 65 HAINSEY,RON |
6.81% |
PP |
27 FAULK,JUSTIN |
3.81% |
SH |
27 FAULK,JUSTIN – 4 SEKERA,ANDREJ |
3.48% |
EV |
27 FAULK,JUSTIN – 26 LILES,JOHN-MICHAEL |
Sekera is gone, leaving Faulk with stalwarts (?), Ron Hainsey, John-Michael Liles, and Michal Jordan. One name that jumps out is Ryan Murphy. The former 11th overall pick in the 2011 Entry Draft tore it up offensively in junior hockey with the Kitchener Rangers, and could be a worthy power-play partner for Faulk heading into next season. But as you can see, it's The Faulk Show for sure in Raleigh. And in man-advantage situations, he'll be out there with the likes of Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner, and I suppose, just maybe, Alexander Semin.
I liken Faulk's offensive game to that of Colorado Avalanche defenseman Tyson Barrie, who, with 53 points in 2014-15, is very similar in terms of production. And based on last year's results, was drafted approximately 10 spots ahead of Faulk (or one whole round). I was surprised to learn that both young d-men averaged roughly the same amount of offensive zone face-offs during five-on-five play: Faulk 33.2% and Barrie 32.5%; in games I watched, it seemed like Barrie was only getting offensive zone face-offs during even strength, like Patty Roy was abandoning his defensive game.
But I digress. In a perfect fantasy draft world, you'd be able to grab them both in the neighborhood of Round 11 or 12, but one may go a bit earlier than that. My money would be on Barrie; playing with Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Jarome Iginla, and Gabriel Landeskog seems a bit more enticing to me than the names mentioned above for Faulk. But it will certainly be wise to include Justin Faulk's name somewhere in your top-20 fantasy rearguards. If he scores something in the 55 point range, you don't want to be that person that missed out on a budding offensive defenseman.
Follow Derek on Twitter – @Extra_Attacker