Frozen Forensics: Justin Faulk

Derek Gibson

2015-05-22

 

 

Justin.Faulk.USAT

 

 

Is Justin Faulk ready to return an elite fantasy season?

 

 

Offensive production from the blue line can mean the difference between winning your fantasy league, or leave you scratching your head asking, "Why in the world did I not scoop HIM up when I had the chance?!"

 

 

Anybody can draft Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang (for you Mike Tyson's Punchout fans, he's the NHL's version of Glass Joe), or P.K. Subban, but the real test comes when you have to decide who the breakout candidates are: the rearguards that can potentially take that next step from 35-40 points into that 50 point range. Enter Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Justin Faulk.

 

 

You'll notice I highlighted a few numbers from this past season. Yes, I know minus-19 is killer in fantasy (In one of my keeper leagues it's a full -1, so a -4 night can bury you!!), but if you take out the fact that he ended the month of October at -8, it's really sort of manageable from a fantasy perspective, especially when you consider that he had 20 power-play points (including seven power-play goals).

 

 

And as you can see, his numbers have steadily climbed each season. Furthermore, he averaged 24:25 minutes per game, which included 2:42 minutes per game with the man advantage. Getting over two and a half minutes of power-play time per game is huge in Fantasy Land, and with 40.8 percent of his total points in 2014-15 coming from the PP, it is easy to see why Faulk will be an attractive option come draft time. Throw in 238 shots on goal (a healthy 2.90 per game), and Faulk could very well see himself enter the Top 15 fantasy defensemen.

 

Speaking of that, let's take a look at where his point total stacked up compared to his peers. Of the top 100 scorers, 13 were d-men:

 

Erik Karlsson                66      (17.7)

Brent Burns                 60        (110.8)

PK Subban                   60        (16.7)

Dennis Wideman          56        (158.4)

Roman Josi                  55        (149.2)

John Carlson                55        (121.7)

Kris Letang                  54        (73.8)

Tyson Barrie                53        (114.6)

Mark Streit                  52        (126.4)

Keith Yandle                52        (59.3)

Andrei Markov             50        (134.4)

Justin Faulk                 49        (124.8)

Mark Giordano             48        (99.5)

 

 

The numbers in parentheses indicates where those players were drafted on average in Yahoo! Fantasy Hockey Leagues. As you can see, Faulk is certainly right in the middle of this pack, but there also some noticeable back-end names absent from this list that just missed the cut. Names like: Kevin Shattenkirk, Dustin Byfuglien, Ryan Suter, Alex Pietrangelo, Sami Vatanen, T.J. Brodie, and of course, Shea Weber.

 

There are going to be some detractors out there, and I can understand why: the Carolina Hurricanes. The Canes (or Whalers for me) haven't exactly lit the NHL on fire for, say, seven or eight years now, but that could also be seen as a plus, as Faulk will get a bundle of playing time, in all situations. And using the Dobber Hockey Frozen Pool tools, he's not exactly playing with All-Stars on D every night:

 

45.23%

EV

27 FAULK,JUSTIN – 4 SEKERA,ANDREJ

24.3%

EV

27 FAULK,JUSTIN – 65 HAINSEY,RON

6.81%

PP

27 FAULK,JUSTIN

3.81%

SH

27 FAULK,JUSTIN – 4 SEKERA,ANDREJ

3.48%

EV

27 FAULK,JUSTIN – 26 LILES,JOHN-MICHAEL

 

Sekera is gone, leaving Faulk with stalwarts (?), Ron Hainsey, John-Michael Liles, and Michal Jordan. One name that jumps out is Ryan Murphy. The former 11th overall pick in the 2011 Entry Draft tore it up offensively in junior hockey with the Kitchener Rangers, and could be a worthy power-play partner for Faulk heading into next season. But as you can see, it's The Faulk Show for sure in Raleigh. And in man-advantage situations, he'll be out there with the likes of Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner, and I suppose, just maybe, Alexander Semin.

 

I liken Faulk's offensive game to that of Colorado Avalanche defenseman Tyson Barrie, who, with 53 points in 2014-15, is very similar in terms of production. And based on last year's results, was drafted approximately 10 spots ahead of Faulk (or one whole round). I was surprised to learn that both young d-men averaged roughly the same amount of offensive zone face-offs during five-on-five play: Faulk 33.2% and Barrie 32.5%; in games I watched, it seemed like Barrie was only getting offensive zone face-offs during even strength, like Patty Roy was abandoning his defensive game.

 

 

But I digress. In a perfect fantasy draft world, you'd be able to grab them both in the neighborhood of Round 11 or 12, but one may go a bit earlier than that. My money would be on Barrie; playing with Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Jarome Iginla, and Gabriel Landeskog seems a bit more enticing to me than the names mentioned above for Faulk. But it will certainly be wise to include Justin Faulk's name somewhere in your top-20 fantasy rearguards. If he scores something in the 55 point range, you don't want to be that person that missed out on a budding offensive defenseman.

 

Follow Derek on Twitter – @Extra_Attacker

 

 

Frozen Forensics: Vladimir Tarasenko is a top-10 talent

Looking Forward to David Pastrnak’s Sophomore Season

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 09 - 19:04 T.B vs TOR
Apr 09 - 19:04 NYR vs PHI
Apr 09 - 20:04 MIN vs S.J
Apr 09 - 22:04 ANA vs CGY
Apr 09 - 22:04 EDM vs STL

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS WSH
IVAN DEMIDOV MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
NICK SUZUKI MTL
SIDNEY CROSBY PIT

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
CASEY DESMITH DAL
SAM MONTEMBEAULT MTL
AKIRA SCHMID VGK
SPENCER KNIGHT CHI
TRISTAN JARRY PIT

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CHI Players
22.5 TEUVO TERAVAINEN FRANK NAZAR TYLER BERTUZZI
19.5 ILYA MIKHEYEV RYAN DONATO CONNOR BEDARD
18.0 JOE VELENO LUKAS REICHEL NICK FOLIGNO

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson: Gr8 V16es

Elan and Brian celebrate two legends with massive accomplishments today: Alex Ovechkin, the NHL’s new goal scoring record holder, and Ian F, the newly crowned KKUPFL Ultimate Champion and undisputed best fantasy hockey manager in the world. You decide which one matters more.

Fantasy Hockey Life: Tidy Commissioner Roundtable

Our TIDY commish team joins the show for a roundtable to look back on a thrilling season. Have a listen! Our show is part of the Dobber Podcast Network and sponsored by Fantrax.com. Email fantasyhockeylife@gmail.com and ask to join our free discord. Join our Patreon at Patreon.com/fantasyhockeylife for rankings, bonus podcasts, in-depth prospect reports with […]

Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – Playoff Injury Rundown

Shams is here with special guest Derrick to get you set up for the final stretch run of your fantasy playoffs. They go through the near term schedule covering the teams you should look at for streams and which ones you should consider dropping players from. After that, they cover a long list of injuries […]

FIND US ON FACEBOOK