2015 Offseason Fantasy Look: Nashville & St. Louis

Doran Libin

2015-05-25

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The fantasy hockey lowdown on the St. Louis Blues and the Nashville Predators

St Louis

 

St Louis has been a top team in the Central Division, and the league, for a few years; the emergence of Vladimir Tarasenko as a dynamic scoring threat added a new dimension for them. They were briefly in on the Mike Babcock sweepstakes meaning Ken Hitchcock's return is not a given. If Ken Hithcock leaves they could become a more offensive team even though scoring has not been an issue as they have been just under three goals per game for the last two years.

This was another year of platooning goalies with Jake Allen taking Jaroslav Halak's spot alongside Brian Elliott. The platoon gave the Blues average goaltending and was a little worse than the year before. Allen is the future in net for the Blues but was especially bad on long range with a save percent two points lower than the league average on the worst, most common type of shot. Allen improved upon 2012/13, which bodes for his development going forward. Brian Elliott remained a league average goalie and is a good platoon partner as Allen continues to develop. With a cap hit of 2.5 million for the next two years Elliott will continue to get starts through the end of his contract.

As long as Pekka Rinne is healthy there will not be a goaltending controversy in Nashville. After being injured last year and coming off a below average lockout year Rinne returned to Vezina caliber form. There is still room for Rinne to improve as his save percentage on mid-range shots was low for Rinne by two points, with a quarter of the shots Rinne faced coming from that range there is reasonable expectation that he could be even better next year. At 65 games each year, and with the team scoring more, Rinne will easily remain an elite goalie. 

Filip Forsberg and James Neal are the only two forwards of the top six that are signed for next year.  Forsberg's season was largely a mirror of Mike Ribeiro's season as his production fell off as the year went on. He has a solid base upon which to build as he posted over 230 shots, 100 hits and a very respectable even strength P60 of 2.23. His overall numbers are very sustainable after leveling off from their early season highs. James Neal had the expected set back after being traded from Pittsburgh to Nashville. His even strength numbers held up relatively well but the same can not be said for his power play numbers. He fell from 26 power play points in Pittsburgh to just four in Nashville. Unless Neal cements himself as a focal point on the Nashville power play this is the new normal.

Two thirds of Nashville's top six are free agents this summer. Mike Ribeiro and Mike Fisher are unrestricted free agents and it seems that at least one of the two will be back next year. Ribeiro took a discount to play in Nashville after his buyout from Arizona and as such may be tough to bring back. Ribeiro averaged nearly a point per game through late January based on some hot shooting but dipped to half a point per game when his on-ice shooting percentage dropped to around six percent. If things even out and Ribeiro remains in this situation he should repeat. Fisher was thought to be retiring but with his explosive return from injury he looks set to re-sign as he posted a GF60 over three for the first time in eight years. His shooting percentage of 14% would be more concerning if he had not been in that range for the last four years. The resurgence is partially because he started significantly more in the offensive zone and because he played his best linemates in years.

Craig Smith and Colin Wilson both came of age this year and they will both be rewarded as both are RFA's. Both produced around two P60 at even strength while producing significantly more shots along the way. Thus both were able to produce points efficiently while not putting up huge individual shooting percentages. Both were also able to carry their higher level of play over to the playoffs as both had five points in six games. Look for further improvement from both of these players as they build off their respective twenty goal seasons and continue to take even more shots.

Shea Weber and Roman Josi are equals on the Nashville first pairing. They play the same tough minutes at even strength and dominate the Preds power play at over three minutes per game each. Weber provides a slight advantage in shots, hits and penalty minutes. Josi is a lot less reliant on secondary assists, to the extent that the potential is there for a huge season with a bit of luck. Both should be considered perennial 50 point contenders but Josi, with less name recognition, can probably be acquired cheaper. Ryan Ellis, Seth Jones and Mattias Ekholm make up a trio of quality defensemen behind the top pairing. Ellis and Jones got the power play minutes while Ellis and Ekholm got second pairing minutes. Ekholm looks to be more of a defensive defensemen as he has elite shot suppression numbers. Ellis was the most efficient Nashville defenseman at even strength at 1.41 P60. The future stud on the Nashville defense is Seth Jones. He gets the same power play minutes as Ellis while getting easier even strength usage. Until the road opens up for Jones he finds himself in the same situation as Ellis where anything over 35 will be tough for either of them. Cody Franson is not coming back as he was a rental that Laviolette could not find a use for despite his superior numbers.

 

UFA: Mike Fisher, Matt Cullen, Mike Ribeiro, Mike Santorelli, Cody Franson, Anton Volchenkov, Carter Hutton
RFA: Colin Wilson, Craig Smith, Gabriel Bourque, Taylor Beck, Calle Jarnkrok

 

 

 

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