June 4, 2015
Michael Clifford
2015-06-04
Chicago stages a comeback in Game 1, concerns over Pekka Rinne for fantasy next year, and thoughts on Sergei Bobrovsky.
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As is the norm for Thursdays, I will have a forum thread in the Dobber Forums open for fantasy hockey questions from readers. I will open it up around 12:00 ET and all questions are welcome
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Tampa Bay dropped the opening game of the Stanley Cup Final in heartbreaking fashion losing 2-1 to Chicago, It was really a tale of two games. Tampa Bay came out hard in the first period to grab a 1-0 lead. According to hockeystats.ca, the five-on-five shot attempts were 19-8 for the Lightning. Over the next 40 minutes, the 'Hawks would have the monster advantage in that regard 37-16. It's not a mere case of the 'Hawks just firing from everywhere, either. The scoring chances worked out about the same way. It was a matter of the Lightning sitting back, more than happy to defend rather than attack. That might be the default manner to play a game as the clock is winding down in the third period, but when Chicago scored to tie the game, it seemed like it was just a matter of when, not if, they would get that tying goal. The feed from CBC showed the Lightning employing the 1-3-1 in the neutral zone as they did under Guy Boucher, though appeared more aggressive on the puck carrier. For those that might be a little foggy on the details, take a gander at this video of what they used to do in the neutral zone:
Game 1 should serve as a good learning experience for both the Lightning players and the coaching staff. Chicago averaged well over three goals a game in the first three rounds of the playoffs. The three teams they beat – Nashville, Minnesota, and Anaheim – were ranked 22nd, 25th, and 11th in the NHL in goals against this year in the regular season. Tampa Bay can't sit back on a one goal lead and hope it holds up for forty minutes against the Blackhawks. This isn't to take away anything Chicago did; Teuvo Teravainen more or less took over in the third period, Marian Hossa was excellent at both ends of the ice as he usually is, and Patrick Kane managed to create a couple of good chances for himself. All the same, there's no denying the passive nature of the Lightning play after the first period. Sitting back while this Chicago team attacks twice as often as you do is a recipe to lose games. It's a hard lesson to learn considering the time of year, but I suspect if Tampa is in this situation in another game later this series, we see a different approach to the game.
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One area where there seems to be a bit of adaptation to Tampa's game was that Andrej Sustr's ice time was cut by over two and a half minutes from his average during these playoffs. I've written in earlier ramblings my non-trust of Sustr on the ice. Cutting back his ice time against these 'Hawks is the proper way to go.
I still see the Final going seven games. Both teams are pretty evenly matched, though obviously the experience factor goes to Chicago. The games should feature more goals moving forward, but they should all be entertaining to the fans.
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Goaltenders are fickle, both in real life and in fantasy. That is fairly common. They also tend to slow down as they age like all players do. Tim Thomas was an anomaly. There is a lot of research that has shown that goalies really start to decline in performance once they get to their mid-thirties. This is a good read from Hockey Graphs on the matter.
Next season, Pekka Rinne will turn 33-years old in November. His pre-All Star Game save percentage was .931; his post-All Star Game was .911. That second mark is below the NHL average. Of course, that's splitting up good and bad parts of what was overall a good season (especially for fantasy because of all the wins). What it does make me worry about is how he will hold up next year. His hip problems that ruined his 2013-2014 campaign are still fresh in the memory, and Rinne is approaching the point of a typical goalie's career where the on-ice game really starts to tumble.
There is no one really pushing for starts in Nashville, so I don't have a concern about Rinne losing (m)any starts next season barring a gigantic plunge in performance. I do worry about those injuries, his second half this past year, and his age. He was a top-5 goalie in standard ESPN roto leagues last year. Next year, I would say that Carey Price, Braden Holtby, Tuukka Rask, Cory Schneider, and Henrik Lundqvist are among the top-5 fantasy goalies (though that's not concrete on my part, I have not done my projections for next year yet, this is just top-of-the-head thinking). There are some other goalies like Marc-André Fleury, Jonathan Quick, Steve Mason, and Ben Bishop who are all capable of having very solid fantasy seasons. Where does Rinne rank? Just thinking out loud, I would probably have Rinne in the 10-15 range among goalies next year, and I might be in the minority in that thinking.
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On the topic of goaltenders next year, Sergei Bobrovsky was undoubtedly a disappointment last year for fantasy owners. Part of it was his own injuries, part of it was injuries to the team in front of him, which made them considerably weaker defensively than what was probably thought of the team going into the year.
All the same, Bobrovksy has a better save percentage at five-on-five than every regular goalie in the NHL over the past three years not named Price or Rask. That's pretty elite. He already has a Vezina Trophy to his name, is behind what should be an improved team next year, and is still fairly young, turning 27 in September.
I think Bobrovsky is a top-10 goalie in rankings next year, or at least should be. Assuming the Blue Jackets can stay healthier than they did last season, Bobrovsky could push for 40 wins, and improve his goals against average by hopefully a third of a goal. Look at what Rask did this year, and add a few wins. That would probably put Bobrovsky just outside the top-5 goalies. Perhaps that is a little too bullish on him considering how poorly the Jackets played most of the year, but I can't help think that the injuries played an incredibly large factor in their defensive issues.