0.41 (R.V.)

1.10 (A.T.)

3.11 (R.V.)

0.22 (A.T.)

0.35 (R.V.)

2011-12

0.43 (A.T.)

0.31 (R.V.)

0.34 (A.T.)

0.74 (R.V.)

0.73 (A.T.)

0.20 (R.V.)

1.31 (A.T.)

3.01 (R.V.)

0.23 (A.T.)

0.22 (R.V.)

Simply put – Tanguay is a borderline category killer in leagues that place a premium on Shots or count them as one of fewer than eight total categories. And although Tanguay has managed to up his Shots rate a tad since coming to Colorado, that's been accompanied by a drop in PP production while his formerly notable output in Blocked Shots dropped to merely above average for a forward.

Meanwhile, Vrbata has scoffed at father time, as each year of his 30s has seen his Shots per game average increase while his PP points output has stayed above one per every four games during the past three seasons. The news isn't all great, however, as his move to Vancouver resulted in his worst output in PIM, Hits, and Blocked Shots among the past four seasons.

Luck-Based Metrics

Because Tanguay played only 16 games in 2013-14, he didn't meet the 50+ minute minimum for his 5×4 IPP to be charted.

Tanguay's Personal Shooting % jumps off the page immediately, although if we combine his numbers from the past four seasons we get 19.5%, which is essentially equal to his career average of 18.9%, so no issues there. But where we should be worried is that his OZ% has been below 46% for three straight seasons. Why the concern? No forward who had a lower OZ% than Tanguay's 45.9% in 2014-15 scored 60+ points. In fact, the lowest OZ% of any 60+ point scorer for 2014-15 was Sean Monahan, whose OZ% was 47.1%.

Beyond that, although Tanguay has shown he's a reliable IPP guy, his 80.0% at 5×4 was quite high even for him. If it had been the 62.5% that he'd averaged in 2011-12 and 2012-13, then his PP output drops by three, and suddenly he's barely a 50+ point player.

At first glance there could be concern about Vrbata's Personal Shooting %, since his career average is only 9.5%, which would've translated to six fewer goals in 2014-15. But if we look closer, we see that despite his Shots totals increasing in three straight seasons he managed to shoot well above 9.5% in two of those seasons, plus posted a 15.1% rate in 2011.12. If we examine just those four seasons, his percentage is 11.3%, which happens to be less than his 2014-15 number. And although his 5×5 IPP was higher than his average from the past three seasons, his 5×4 IPP was lower; and had he posted (for 2014-15) IPPs that were identical to the averages from 2011-12 to 2013-14, the net effect would've been a reduction by only two points.

Long story short – Vrbata's 63 points in 2014-15 was no mirage, especially since it also came with a very sustainable OZ% that – unlike Tanguay's – is conductive to being able to continue to score 60+ points.

Value and Injuries

Both players were cost vs. value bargains in 2014-15, but Vrbata far more so than Tanguay. Vrbata was drafted as – on average – the 46th RW (his only eligible position) in Yahoo leagues, but finished the year as the 13th rated RW and owned in 82% of leagues. Tanguay had LW/RW eligibility and was drafted as the 60th LW (55th RW) on average in Yahoo leagues, finishing at 26% owned and rated as the 45th best RW (but not among the top 50 LWs).

As for their injury history, Tanguay has earned his spot as a trainee on the Band-Aid Boy list, and I might argue he's ready to graduate to certified band-aid boy status, what with only three seasons of 79+ games in his past seven campaigns, coupled with missing 62, 8, 18, and 32 in the other four. Meanwhile, since becoming an NHL regular in 2006-07 Vrbata has only missed more than six games once, and that was when he voluntarily departed the Lightning. No question that Vrbata has a clear-cut advantage over Tanguay in this area.

Who Wins?

Sometimes in making my winner picks, I have to go to great lengths to explain that I did so not based purely on who stands most likely to be the best fantasy performer, but instead on what I feel is a more important factor, namely who will represent the best player in terms of cost vs. value. In other words, if player A stands to give your team 20% better production than player B but player A would cost you 40% more to obtain (by draft or trade) than player B, then the "winner" generally should be player B.

Going into this match, I correctly figured Vrbata is poised to be the better fantasy producer going forward, but wondered whether he – or Tanguay – would win the match based on all-important cost versus value. But clearly Vrbata wins there too, and by a wide margin. And not only that – Tanguay is a rare example of a player where essentially all key factors point to him doing worse next season, to the tune of maybe having a chance at 50 points, but more likely finishing closer to 45 instead.

Thus, while Vrbata definitely will cost you more to obtain for 2015-16 than he did for last season, he looks like a reliable investment for those in one year leagues or even poolies in keepers who are trying to go for a win in the next season or two. Meanwhile, Tanguay is someone to avoid, as likely he'll be valued right at 55 points; and only if everything goes perfectly does he even stand a chance of coming close to that mark. Avoid Tanguay come draft day; and if you have him on a team now, either don't retain him or, in very deep leagues, keep him with an eye toward dishing him to another team once he hits a decent hot streak, since it won't be sustainable.