June 13, 2015

Michael Clifford

2015-06-13

Looking ahead to Game 5, Tuukka Rask’s fantasy value next year, Patrick Sharp, and more.

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Tonight is Game 5 of the Cup Final. The series is tied 2-2 with the scene shifting back to Tampa Bay. Chicago won Game 4 to avoid facing an elimination game (for now).

The big kerfuffle (is it a kerfuffle?) again for this game is the status of Tampa Bay goalie Ben Bishop. He didn't skate yesterday, but the Lightning coaching staff said that was part of the recovery. He might play, he might not. If he does, he's assuredly far from 100-percent. Vasilevskiy was fine in Game 4, and not a reason for their loss.

This is totally a wait-and-see situation, and when there's not a lot to talk about, this is about all that gets talked about. I don't think the difference between winning and losing for Tampa Bay is having a hobbled Bishop or a healthy Andrei Vaslevskiy in net.

I have no strong lean one way or another for this game. Tampa Bay has looked far from over-matched despite the disparity in experience. Stamkos has no goals and just one assist in his last six games. I'll play the "he's due" card and say Stamkos comes up big in Game 5.

The two players told they won't be returning played the second- and third-most minutes among all Pittsburgh defencemen last year. Also, it's not like Kris Letang has been a picture of health almost at any point of his career. One can only hope that he's back and in full health for next season.

That leaves a lot of minutes to a lot of guys who haven't proven a lot but will have a lot of opportunity.

Like, a lot.

Obviously Olli Maatta should see his fair share of minutes, including power play. Ditto for Derrick Pouliot. There are also some pretty good offensive players on that team (to understate things). Kris Letang, provided health, is clearly at the top of the chain. Is Maatta the clear number-2?

For another perspective, Neil Parker discussed Pittsburgh's defensive situation in yesterday's Ramblings.

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So what do keeper/dynasty owners do with Tuukka Rask?

From 2009 through 2014 (from Puckalytics), Rask had a .940 save percentage at five-on-five when on the ice with Zdeno Chara (.932 without). This year, it was .928 on the ice together, and .932 when he was without Chara (yes, I know one season of percentages aren't really reliable, but it's new information that can't be ignored). Despite having arguably his worst professional season with Boston, Rask posted a .931 save percentage total at five-on-five, better than both Holtby and Lundqvist.

Almost all of Chara's numbers were bad last year, and there's no question he had a monster impact on shots for Rask through his career. Chara was not himself last year, and Dougie Hamilton seemed to have carried the pairing.

So Rask was his usual self, but Boston (specifically Chara) were not. If I had some sort of assurance that the Chara of 2015-2016 would be the Chara of 2013-2014, I would probably have Rask as my top goalie in fantasy next year. If Chara is the Chara of last year, though, I have concerns.

What to do with Rask in keeper/dynasties? Have to hold, I think. For those who really want to trade him: One bad month in October won't kill his value, but one great month might boost it back to norms. I wouldn't make a trade now, I'd wait until they've played the first dozen games of the season.

Make sure to check out Zach Hopkins’ latest prospect ramblings.