2015-16 Fantasy Outlook: Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils
Eric Daoust
2015-05-05
Looking ahead at the Hurricanes and Devils for the 2015-16 season
While many teams continue to battle for the Stanley Cup, more than half of the league has been eliminated and is in the offseason. Even though each team will undergo many changes this summer, we can still look at their rosters and get an indication of things to come next year. After covering the Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs last week, we will now take a look at the Carolina Hurricanes and the New Jersey Devils.
As we will see with both of these clubs, wasted cap space is costly. No matter the size of the team's budget, the money must be allocated efficiently. The proof is in the pudding as both the Hurricanes and the Devils own a few big contracts that are grossly underachieving. As a result, both teams failed to finish in a playoff spot.
Carolina Hurricanes
For the sixth straight year, the Hurricanes failed to qualify for the postseason. Even though there are some positives to draw from the 2014-15 campaign, including some major steps forward from some of the team's top young talents, the team is hurting at every position. Needless to say their outlook is very bleak.
Still, the Hurricanes possess several players that are very prominent in fantasy hockey starting with captain Eric Staal. After being a consistent 70-point guy for many years, his production has slipped mightily with a combined 0.74 points per game over the last two years. This makes Staal's present value very difficult to assess. While it is difficult to project a return to 70 points in his current setting, someone in your fall draft is bound to reach for the star forward.
Looking deeper at Staal's numbers during his production decline, there are signs that an increase could be coming. His shooting percentage the last two years has been just above nine percent, down from his career average of 11 percent. Adjusting his current season to his career average would put Staal at 27 goals, giving him an increase of four.
New Jersey Devils
Like the Hurricanes, the Devils have also become regulars in the outside of the playoff race, now having missed the postseason for the third straight year. An over-the-hill core of forwards and a lack of polished defensemen are at the root of the team's problems. Furthermore, some bad contracts including Tuomo Ruutu, Dainius Zubrus and Ryane Clowe which are on payroll for next year have plagued the team. A lack of quality prospects outside of their NHL roster will make it difficult to give their team the shot in the arm that it needs to be competitive in 2015-16.
The Devils rocked the hockey world yesterday with longtime general manager Lou Lamoriello stepping aside while Ray Shero takes over GM duties. If anything, this should put an end to the team's over-reliance of older, washed up forwards that served as band-aids to try to keep the team competitive now. With many of them set to become unrestricted free agents, Shero will have some cap space to work with.
One forward that stood out last year was Mike Cammalleri, whose 27 goals were a team-high by a wide margin. Unfortunately, this was likely an outlier. While he was able to beat last year's goal total by one, he did so while shooting much less frequently, hitting the net just 156 times this year. That put his shooting percentage at over 17 percent, up from his career average of 12.5 percent. If his shooting percentage was at his career average he would have finished with just 20 goals and his season would have been mediocre. Unless the Devils are able to land some top-line talent look for Cammalleri to take a step back next year.
As we have seen in recent years there is not much to be had in July when players become unrestricted free agents. This will prevent the Devils from making wholesale changes immediately. They will certainly go the trade route to try to acquire players at positions of need but the trade market can also be very difficult. With the amount of departing free agents there will likely be some spots available for some young forwards. However, the Devils are not in great shape in terms of NHL-ready prospect forwards. This leaves Reid Boucher and Stephane Matteau as the most likely candidates to make the jump. Both could be decent fantasy contributors in leagues that favor their respective strengths but in both cases their value will be limited to deeper leagues.
On defense, the Devils have Bryce Salvador, Peter Harold and Mark Fraser set to depart as free agents. This could not come at a better time as beyond mainstay Andy Greene the team has four young NHL-ready defensemen that need to be kept up in the NHL full-time. Larsson in particular took a big step forward this year. In all likelihood Shero will sign at least one veteran defenseman this summer. Depending on how things shake up this summer, prospects like Seth Helgeson, Raman Hrabarenka and Reece Scarlett could be in the mix to play some games next year.
Goaltending is the one position where the Devils are very sound, at least at the NHL level. Cory Schneider showed in his first full season as uncontested number-one goalie that he is the real deal, maintaining his career .925 save percentage despite a heavy workload that saw him appear in 69 games.
Schneider's backup Keith Kinkaid is perfect for the role. He does not possess true starter potential and will be content warming the bench for the most part while keeping his NHL job. Kinkaid was quite good when called upon as he finished with a .915 save percentage. His job is safe for now given that the Devils have a weak goalie pipeline. However, if Schneider goes down to major injury do not look to Kinkaid as a quality stopgap able to deliver like Cam Talbot over in New York. The Devils would have to look outside the organization for help in this event.
To summarize, the Devils truly deserved to finish where they did this year given the roster they put on the ice. With the GM change and so many departing free agents they are in a great position to start implementing Shero's new plan. Like Carolina, there will be opportunities for young players to make the jump to New Jersey next year.
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Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust.
2015-16 Fantasy Outlook: Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs
Eastern Conference 2014-15 Review
Playoff Prep – Eastern Conference Part Two
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