June 22, 2015

Michael Clifford

2015-06-22

Why Florida is a sensible landing spot for Phil Kessel, Alexei Emelin's future, and some thoughts on Anaheim.

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Hey everyone. Monday is normally a day for Dobber's Ramblings, but he's taking a much-deserved vacation. He will be back soon, but for today, you guys are stuck with me.

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The rumour mill is heating up as it does every year in the NHL in the days leading up to the Entry Draft. It seems like there is more talk surrounding the future of Phil Kessel and his tenure with the Toronto Maple Leafs. It might seem crazy to trade Kessel, but this team seems to be (at best) a couple of years before they're even back in the playoffs. Kessel turns 28 when the season starts in October, so assuming a scenario where the Leafs take a couple of more lean years in order to really stock their pond, he'll be in his Age 30 season for the 2017-2018 campaign. A declining scorer of his skill level would still be valuable to them, but they needed to take advantage of the previous 2-3 years previous, and these next couple. That window has closed.

Let's be clear here: Kessel is still an elite player and producer until we get more data. Over the past four years, he has the same points per game mark as Ryan Getzlaf (0.94), and for a better comparison, isn't too far behind Alex Ovechkin (0.99). Patrick Kane is treated pretty much as a demi-god in some hockey circles, but his points per game mark over those years is between Kessel and Ovechkin at 0.98. Yes, Kane has had some spectacular playoff moments, and that's where much of his legacy comes from. Kessel could have that chance too when (if) the Leafs stop sucking annually.

Emelin has never really been very fantasy relevant except for leagues where there is some sort of weight given to real-time stats. What he is is a guy that hits hard. He hits very hard. And does about nothing else. From the (informative) site Own The Puck:

Dashboard 1

Aside from the points/60, which surprised me a bit, everything here is bad. All of it. Emelin turned 29 in April, so this isn't a guy that's developing or peaking. His personal performance may start getting worse, actually, and his contract extension just kicked in last year. Mother of god.

Emelin has to go. There is not a single justification for Emelin to be earning over $4-million annually aside from "he hits hard." If there is a single skill in hockey that is readily available for a considerably cheaper price than hitting, it's not coming to my mind. Almost to a man, every Habs player has better goal and shooting differentials playing away from Emelin than playing with him, going back three years. With P.K. Subban, Jeff Petry, and Andrei Markov leading the way, and Nathan Beaulieu and Greg Pateryn showing promise, there really isn't a need for Emelin, and that cap hit compounds the problem.

Like Therrien being shown the door, I don't see Emelin going anywhere in one manner or another. Therrien seems to like him, and that is a factor here (rightly or wrongly). Also, I think teams are probably wise to the "Emelin sucks" crowd. If only Dave Nonis were still a GM somewhere.

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In the constant state of "what happens next" that the NHL offseason brings, one thought that came to mind was, "what does Anaheim change for next year?"

It's a pertinent question for every team, that's obvious. I think Anaheim deserves special consideration here because the Ducks gotten out of the first round in back-to-back seasons, but still has not been back to the Stanley Cup Final since they won the Cup in 2007. They have one of the best top line duos in Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf of this millennium, and both have recently hit the Age 30 mark. There may only be a few years left of truly elite production from those two, which means that window is slowly shutting. Ryan Kesler has just a year left on his current deal, so this next season may be the last chance the Ducks have to make a push for a Cup.

Anaheim is still scoring just fine by any measure, so it's not a matter of generating offence. With young guys like Jakob Silfverberg and Jiri Sekac looking like they are on the ascent, they don't necessarily need to bring back free agent Matt Beleskey.

With Clayton Stoner being not good, and François Beauchemin likely gone, Anaheim could use some help on the back end. There is a good amount of impressive defencemen available in the free agent market, so a weak forward free agent market doesn't really hinder this team's chances to improve their Cup chances.

Whatever the Ducks decide to do, they really should keep adding in a push for the Cup. There's no need for an "all in" type of scenario where they sell the farm to load up for one year, as that's bad practice anyway. They should make some improvements, particularly on the blue line, if they want to get back to the Cup Final again. We'll see if they do.

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