2.97 (P.B.)

1.98 (D.K.)

0.09 (P.B.)

0.15 (D.K.)

13.07 (P.B.)

7.68 (D.K.)

2011-12

0.24 (P.B.)

0.45 (D.K.)

0.90 (P.B.)

0.87 (D.K.)

0.82 (P.B.)

0.58 (D.K.)

2.35 (P.B.)

1.83 (D.K.)

0.17 (P.B.)

0.14 (D.K.)

12.01 (P.B.)

6.88 (D.K.)

Bergeron has become the gold standard for leagues with FOW, as not only has he led the NHL for each of the past two seasons, but in 2014-15 he had 10% more FOW than second place (Claude Giroux). If we couple that with his solid Hits, PIM, and Blocked Shots numbers for a scoring forward, as well as an excellent Shots average, we see that Bergeron is a definitely a multi-cat asset.

For a scoring forward, Krejci also is also pretty solid in most of these categories; however, his FOW is fair at best for a C-only eligible player, and his Shots per game nosedived last season. But because he's been right near two Shots per game over the previous three seasons, there's reason to believe he'll bounce back in 2015-16 when he's returned to full health. If he doesn't, then it certainly will be more difficult for Krejci to rebound to 60+ points.

Luck-Based Metrics

This is somewhat reassuring data for Krejci, as in 2014-15 he posted his lowest or second lowest numbers in every category except PDO. Thus, signs point to him having suffered from unsustainably bad luck last season. That having been said, the numbers weren't down too much, so although a return to 60+ points could be in the cards, it's less clear if he'll be able to jump back above 65+.

Bergeron also posted his lowest or second lowest output in all categories except for one, although in his case he had his highest output among these four seasons in 5×5 IPP, at 82.9%. Yet that actually wasn't a huge increase from his recent past, which means if his 2014-15 5×5 IPP had been 73.5 instead (i.e., the average of his prior three seasons), then his scoring total would've dropped by only four points.

What's perhaps more concerning is Bergeron's 42.9% OZ% for 2014-15. It was 31st lowest among the 235 forwards who played in 70+ games last season, and Bergeron was one of only two forwards (David Backes being the other) who tallied even 50+ points with an OZ% lower than 43.0%. If this is Bergeron's "new normal" for OZ%, then a return to 60+ points is almost impossible to envision, especially when factoring in the boost he received from his abnormally high 5×5 IPP.

Vale and likely cost for 2015-16

For 2014-15 Yahoo leagues, both players were C-only eligible. And despite Krejci having outscored Bergeron in two of the three previous full seasons, plus in the aggregate over those three seasons (193 points, versus 181), Bergeron was tabbed as the 23rd pivot on average in 2014-15 Yahoo drafts, compared to 33rd for Krejci. And although leagues with FOW accounted for some of this difference, a large majority of Yahoo leagues likely don't include that as a category, so it seems strange for there to have been that wide of a gap between two players who were otherwise comparable in multi-cat output other than SOG.

Fast forward to now, and although both fell short of scoring expectations for 2014-15, Krejci will likely be looked upon as the bigger failure by poolies given his missed games. As a result, he might dip even more than Bergeron in rankings, which means he could be the better cost vs. value bargain.

Who Wins?

It would be much easier to reach a conclusion if the Bs were coming off another season of success, since we could just expect more of the same. But with the team having disappointed, it's been said they'll approach the 2015-16 season with a modified philosophy and, with that, at least somewhat different roles for its forwards.

Even still, it's hard to imagine circumstances improving overall for Bergeron from a fantasy perspective, as he's simply too valuable in his three zone role. We have to remember that no matter how much talent Bergeron possesses, and whether or not he could score 70+ points again, none of that matters if he's not placed in circumstances making that a possibility. And even if his OZ% was to bounce back and his SH Ice Time to stay below 2:00 per game, chances are his overall situation won't be conductive to him scoring 60+ points again, especially considering that his 55 point campaign last season actually featured some unsustainable good luck in the form of his 5×5 IPP.

That brings us to Krejci. While he did appear to be saddled by some bad luck last season, it wasn't to a degree that would suggest a huge bounce back for 2015-16 and beyond; and that's assuming he's able to get his SOG total back up to two per game, which isn't a guarantee. But if the Bs do implement a more up-tempo offense and transition game, Krejci seemingly would stand to benefit more than Bergeron. And although Ryan Spooner showed in 2014-15 he might have what it takes to be a capable scoring center, the reality is Krejci's big contract all but guarantees him a top six spot, suggesting that Spooner will ultimately switch to wing or possibly get dealt. Beyond that, by 2016-17 Krejci might not have long time linemate Milan Lucic by his side, although given Lucic's offensive struggles over the past season plus that might actually be a net positive for Krecji.

In points-only leagues I'll give the edge to Krecji, based mainly on his likelihood of benefitting more from a "new look" Bs offense, plus the fact that he's already a cost vs. value bargain compared to Bergeron, especially with poolies likely to devalue him more than Bergeron on the basis of last season. For multi-cat leagues, I think Krejci still gets the edge unless there's a big emphasis on FOW or SOG, as you have to pay for the value Bergeron provides; and once you factor in other poolies likely continuing to value him as a 60+ point player, the cost becomes too difficult to justify. In contrast, Krejci has never been seen as a major multi-cat asset, so in turn his cost likely will be reasonable enough to still justify drafting or trading for him for 2015-16.