My thoughts on Boedker, Nyquist, Wilson, Gelinas, Larsson, MDZ, Holtby; and more…

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It being the long weekend, the latest news in hockey isn’t much. But one thing that did happen was the salary arbitration deadline. Players who file for arbitration (or have it filed for them by the team – club-elected arbitration deadline is Monday afternoon) are pretty much guaranteed to play next season. No holdouts or delays. One way or another, the contracts get settled. The full list is here, but I’ll go over some of the key names and give my thoughts on them:

Mikkel Boedker, Arizona – This is the year we determine just who is Boedker. For four consecutive seasons we’ve seen production at the same rate: between 0.54 and 0.62 points per game. He turns 26 in December so he’s entering his prime now. My hunch is that his range is indeed around there or just a tad higher, which puts him at 55 to 60 points per healthy season. With potential first liners coming on board over the next three years (Dylan Strome, Max Domi, Christian Dvorak are the best candidates), Boedker will have peaked after the year ahead.

Gustav Nyquist, Detroit – A year away from entering his fourth full NHL season by my definition, but I feel comfortable in my expectation of him to reach 75 points within two years. Only if he fails to reach 60 this season will I re-evaluate. And of course, if last season’s scoring leaders has become the NHL norm, than the 75 points would need to be adjusted accordingly.

Erik Haula, Minnesota – An interesting player in that he has some upside and has tended to produce above expectations ever since being a seventh-round pick in 2009. That is, until last season, which was a train wreck for him. Right now he’s outside of the top six with zero chance of ever getting in. The window has closed, last season was key.

Craig Smith, Nashville – He slipped a little under the new coach, in both points (eight points) and ice time (39 seconds) between 2014-15 and 2013-14. He plays with Forsberg and Ribeiro – and as Forsberg grows, Smith will be pulled upwards. I think he’s back over 50 points next year with a good chance of 60.