July 10, 2015

Michael Clifford

2015-07-10

Matt Calvert re-signs, Zack Kassian and Patrick Maroon are fantasy valuable, and thoughts on Stamkos.

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I'm going to lead off with a signing that might have seemed minor, but most certainly has fantasy implications. That would be the re-signing left winger Matt Calvert by the Columbus Blue Jackets. It is a three-year deal where the terms weren't disclosed, but General Fanager has the cap hit at $2.2-million per season.

Calvert is by no means a name that fantasy owners must know, but he's one that can provide value. Over his last 102 NHL games, spanning two seasons, Calvert has managed 22 goals, 47 points, but also 203 hits. A forward that can provide two hits per game and somewhere in the 15-20 goal range is someone worth taking note of in leagues that use real-time stats like hits and blocked shots.

What's more for Calvert is that he managed 1.53 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five last year, and seemed to have good chemistry with Brandon Dubinsky. Both Calvert and Dubinsky were in and out of the lineup last year, for injuries or otherwise, but look to be ready for a full season ahead. Admittedly, Dubinsky carries the line for them, but there is always something to be said about players playing well together. Even if Dubinsky is a big reason for Calvert's success, you can see in the following chart from Own The Puck that Calvert has a good impact defensively on his line mates regardless:

Good team defence was sorely lacking from the Jackets last year (injuries certainly played a role in that), and Calvert is a guy that can help stabilize that on the second or third line for Columbus. For those that play in leagues with hits and blocked shots, Calvert is a name to keep in mind for later in drafts. For Jackets fans, this is a good second or third line winger who is responsible in his own end and can pop 15 or more goals. That's valuable, and I like this contract for Columbus.

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Something I haven't really talked about yet, but as a Habs fan I feel like I have to, is the trade of Prust for Zack Kassian. I have longed for the day that the Habs didn't have Brandon Prust. Not because I don't like Prust as a player – he has his value to a team. It's because the Canadiens are approaching the early aught Oakland Athletics when GM Billy Beane had to trade away all the players he didn't want his coach using improperly. This is what it feels like with Marc Bergevin and Michel Therrien. I know they're close and likely make personnel decisions together, but it's another binky that Therrien can't cuddle when times are tough.

It's important to keep him in mind because over the last three years, he's the most common winger for Ryan Getzlaf (outside of Corey Perry, obviously). They're also excellent together.

From Puckalytics.com, they score more goals together (3.61 per 60 minutes) than apart (Getzlaf is highest without Maroon at 3.37), they are much better defensively together (47.74 shot attempts against per 60 minutes) than apart (Maroon is highest at 53.00), and their possession rate when together is elite (56.6-percent), but apart the best is Perry at 51.1.

It's a lot of numbers to say that of all the line mates the Getzlaf/Perry duo has had over the last few years, Maroon has played the most with them, and has found the most success with them. Coaches love to talk about coaching in pairs of players, but any coach will admit he likes to have lines where he can just "set it and forget it." This trio could be it.

He will be moved up and down the lineup like he's always been, but Maroon is another name to keep in mind for roto leagues as the draft season approaches. With relatively consistent top line and power play unit minutes, Maroon has potential for 15 goals, 40 points, and near 100 penalty minutes.

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I'm just wondering aloud, but there's no way Jonathan Drouin isn't on Steven Stamkos' line next year, right?

It's funny to think of a 43-goal season like Stamkos had last year as a down year, but as far as points per game goes, it was his lowest rate (0.88) since his rookie season in 2008-2009 as an 18-year old. A big part of that was playing under 20 minutes a game for the first time since that rookie season as well, but he also had one more assist (29) than he did in the lockout-shortened season (28). There's no doubt that he needs someone to play with.

Ryan Callahan is not the player he was two years ago (and he wasn't the player two years ago people thought he was). The Triplets line isn't being broken up, so what else is there? Alex Killorn, maybe? Erik Condra in his first season with the team? Are these really the guys that a franchise player should be surrounded with?

Like I said, it's a unique situation because of the Triplets line, but Stamkos needs some help. Playing him with Valtteri Filppula is fine, but they need someone else who can finish. Drouin is a very good playmaker, but he can put the puck in the net if need be. With such a down year last year, he could provide good value once draft day rolls around, if only because Stamkos needs someone he can play with. Drouin should be that player.

Just watch in awe of who Drouin really is: