The Contrarian – Buyer’s Remorse
MD
2015-07-12
Are recently bought out players like Alexander Semin worth taking a flier on?
It appears that NHL general managers have learned to say 'no' when it comes to ridiculous unrestricted free agent contract signings. Some people point that this year's free agent crop was weak. Others say that the salary cap ceiling being set at $71,400,000 is a larger reason as to why things did not go bonkers like they did in years past.
Certainly those are significant reasons, but I'd like to think that the GMs on a whole have grown cautious.
They have seen the results of enough bad contracts to know that they do not want to be the next person tagged with handing one out. Then a few years later, through necessity or embarrassment, teams have to buyout that same contract.
Still, people speculate on who should be signed and by which teams. Players like recently bought-out Alexander Semin. He will be my focus this week.
He is one of five players listed on CBC Sports and listed fourth in a Sportsnet.ca article on unrestricted free agents. There can be any number of reasons why he still unsigned.
It cannot help though when Peter Karmanos Jr., the owner of the Carolina Hurricanes, came out to say in a story by TheScore.ca, "There are some guys you pay millions and millions of dollars and it wouldn’t affect their performance at all. There are some guys you pay millions and millions of dollars and it takes away all their incentive. You need to be very careful and understand the character of the person you’re signing. We obviously missed that."
He adds, "We bought him out because he was a distraction, he wasn’t going to perform and we wanted to get on to building a team that could win."
Our own Rick Roos recently put him in a cage with Joffrey Lupul and it was Lupul who ended up being victorious, although he was dinged up badly in the comparison-match.
There has to be a way for Semin to spin this.
Both of his agents, Todd Diamond and Mark Gandler, say that he wants to play in the NHL next year and he would even be willing to sign a one-year deal.
"Our job is to put him in the right environment where he can get back to being a 30-40 goal scorer that he has been before and is capable of being again" says Diamond on Trib Live blog called Chipped Ice.
Diamond goes even as far to say, "In the right environment, he plays all three zones with joy." Of course agents are supposed to say good things about their clients. He puts some spice into things to by intimating that there were teams already interested in him and that he'll be locked up in short order.
That leads to the speculation.
Rumor was that he'd go to Pittsburgh or Detroit when the free agent starting gun went off, but that did not materialize.
Washington was another team, as The Washington Post's Neil Greenberg details, should have been interested in bringing back Semin. He writes a compelling case too.
Semin's shot totals were low. Coming back from a wrist injury, his fancy stats indicate that he is actually a good defensive player and he was just unlucky that other members of his teams were not doing their part to prevent being scored on. Could it be true that his agents were right?
His last argument is that "Semin wouldn't require any assets moved, but there is more than just goal-scoring history here."
It didn't matter in Capitals' case, because the acquisitions of Justin Williams and T.J. Oshie kind of killed the need to acquire Semin.
The Red Wing rumor evaporated when Brad Richards was picked up. But before that happened, another blogger on SB Nation's Winging It in Motown thought he would be good for the Wings for the right price.
Adam Savard of toomanymenonthesite.com suggests that the Montreal Canadiens need his services in order to challenge for the Cup. The reason is simple: They need scoring and he is a goal scorer. Or at least he was for a few years, scoring over 30 three times in his career.
Similar reasons come from TheHockeyWriters, but they feel he should go to the Boston Bruins instead. As they put it, "The need for that elite, goal-scoring winger to play up to alongside play maker David Krejci is a pressing one."
So Boston trades away players like Dougie Hamilton who were younger and not team oriented to go out and sign Semin?
It looks like Marc Dumont of SB Nation's Eyes on the Prize blog reviewed Semin to the Canadiens and came to the conclusion that he wouldn't fit in. It would be better if they were to go after Eric Fehr instead because of his body size and how much less of a contract they would theoretically be spending for him instead of Semin.
There is one statement that he put down that I found interesting. "All things considered, despite his recent buyout, I expect Semin to command more money on the open market, especially since he's willing to accept a one-year deal."
So while most of the others were thinking that they would sign Semin to a comfortable offer because he's already being paid big bucks by the Hurricanes, Dumont thinks that Semin's price won't be so palatable.
That could very well be the case, seeing that it is July 10 and he's still an unrestricted free agent.
There are three things that are missing in this whole conversation though: His past, his stats and his comparable players.
As for his past, people focus on just the previous year and his wrist injury. Remember there was a time when he was a Capital when he bolted for Russia. It took two seasons before he came back. You can look it up on his Wikipedia page.
Not that this can happen now, but it can make you wonder if a team wants to sign a guy who can be flighty when things are not going the way he wants them to go.
In regards to his stats, the last time he got more than 30 goals was in the 2009-10 season. Even if you prorate his stats in the lockout-shortened season he would have only projected to get about 24 or 25 goals. It is really reasonable to think that he will sign with any team and get 30 goals next year?
Lastly, his comparable players are other players that were bought out of their contracts and how they performed afterwards.
Scott Gomez did not get more than 34 points since he was cashed in, but he only had one season of 30 or more goals.
Vincent Lecavalier earned five seasons of 30 or more goals, yet after he was bought out and playing on the Flyers he could not produce more than 37 points in a season.
Martin Havlat almost had two 30 or more goal-scoring seasons. He never got more than 30 points after he was shown the door by the San Jose Sharks.
Mark Parrish's story was similar to Havlat's, except that he maxed out with 13 points after the buyout.
Vaclav Prospal's best was 29 goals, but he did manage to scrape up a season of 38 and 39 points after leaving Tampa Bay.
Bill Guerin had four (almost five) 30 or more goal seasons in his career, but after being bought out by Dallas, he only came close one more time with 28 goals and 47 points in 2006-07.
Daniel Briere had four seasons of 30-plus goals to his credit. He also had a maximum of 25 points in a season after Philadelphia told him to play somewhere else.
There is more than Semin's goal scoring prowess to consider here. You can believe his agents if you want to. Speculate what team will be desperate enough to bring him on, but buyer beware.
You might end up similar to Karmanos and be remorseful of the day you acquired Alexander Semin for your fantasy hockey team.