The impact of Sharp and Saad on Hossa; Saad in Columbus, Stewart in Anaheim;  and more…

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When a key player is traded in the offseason, one of the first things I look at is how other key players on his former team performed when he was out of the lineup. Even if they don’t play on the same line, the absence is felt by all in terms of shifting lines around as well as PP and PK units. Fortunately, in the case of Patrick Sharp, he was out of the lineup for 14 games last year. That’s a decent sample size, as well as can be expected anyway. Toews had 12 points in those 14 games and Kane had 17 points in those games. So pretty much status quo for those guys. But when I looked at Hossa, he had 14 in 14. And although that’s only a two- or three-point jump from his pace, it was also interesting to note that he had four PP points (0.29 per game) versus the rest of the season when he had 16 (0.24). Again, very small and not overly – but a little – significant. At the very least it tells me that Hossa won’t be any worse off and could be a little better with an expanded PP role.

The Saad deal is another matter. Not only did he not miss time for us to analyze, but he actually played on Hossa’s line. In fact, of Hossa’s 61 points, 38 of them (62%) were with Saad on the ice with him. The line of Toews – Hossa – Saad is broken up. And although we get the feeling that we could stick the hot dog vendor on that line with Toews and Hossa and the two stars will be just fine, it’s probably not the case. You need talent there. And the only pure talent on the wing (other than Kane, who they’ll keep on a separate line) is Artemy Panarin and Teuvo Teräväinen. So it’s likely that Teräväinen gets the job and stands to break out in a big way if that happens.

Panarin, by the way, I have starting in the AHL and coming up midseason. He’s on a two-year deal so I really like him as a prospect to own. Very high end skill. But I have low expectations for his first year in North America. Patience.

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As for Saad, I think he makes an excellent ‘sell high’ player. At best he plays with Ryan Johansen and Nick Foligno. That’s at best. And if he clicks there, then the Toews to Johansen we can call a wash. And Hossa to Foligno we’ll call a wash. So at best, his linemates are equally conducive to helping him produce. It’s his fourth year, so maybe he inches up to 60 points. But that’s best-case. And I prefer to go with medium-case. That is, he’ll click sometimes, sometimes he won’t. He’ll bounce from first to second to third line and back. And in the end, finishes with around 50 points. Meanwhile, the people in your league will see the huge contract he signed, and feel the hype and buzz of the trade, and probably pay the world for him. So accept their gift of ‘the world’.