Mikhail Grigorenko

Mikhail Grigorenko was beginning to look like a bust amid the rumours that he was considering heading back to the KHL. With the Sabres prepared to draft Jack Eichel it was beginning to look like Grigorenko might never crack the Sabres lineup as a center. Not surprisingly the rumour was that the Sabres were unwilling to give Grigorenko a one-way contract given that he would likely need at minimum another year in the AHL. While the trade to Colorado does not preclude a Grigorenko return to the KHL his relationship to Patrick Roy, his coach from the QMJHL, would suggest that there is a much higher probability of him staying in North America. The success that Grigorenko had under Roy in the QMJHL suggests that this is the coach that can get the best out of him.

Under Roy in the QMJHL Grigorenko produced 178 points in 115 games, which equates to a points per game average of 1.55. According to Rob Vollman in his initial Hockey Abstract the QMJHL has a translation factor of 0.26, which means that upon coming to the NHL Grigorenko could be expected to produce at a .40 points per game pace. Grigorenko produced at a .2 points per game rate in his first 43 games in the NHL, half of what could have been expected. It could be argued that is because the Sabres rushed him and bounced him around, but either way it is lower than you would expect from a prospect with such high expectations attached to him.

Lest one think that Grigorenko is not cut out for professional hockey in North America he has had success in the AHL. This year he had 36 points in 43 games as a 21 year old in the arguably the second best professional league in the world. That is good for a .84 points per game pace which places him amongst in a group that very often has success in the NHL. According to Rob Vollman AHL players who were 19-21 and scored at a high rate generally have success at the NHL, largely because they are given more of a chance to succeed. That does not mean that Grigorenko is going to light up the league but based on a translation factor of .40 for this year a 25 – 30 point season is entirely reasonable.

With there being some positive signs that Grigorenko is still well positioned for success in the NHL it is necessary to look at how he fits into the Avs' lineup. The Ava are returning five (Mackinnon, Duchene, Landeskog, Iginla and Tanguay) of its top seven forwards and they brought in Carl Soderberg to replace the recently traded Ryan O'Reilly, although not in that order. This places Grigorenko in the likely position of either returning to the AHL for another year of conditioning or a spot as Jamie McGinn's role as the seventh forward. The Avs do not have much in the way offensive potential beyond the top six but they do have 16.7 million in cap room. Their primary need is for another defenseman but even after ensuring room for Mackinnon's next contract they should have space to bring in at least another forward. Even if they do not bring in another forward Grigorenko will likely play around 15 minutes per game and get limited power play time. The lack of forward depth on the Avs beyond the top six bodes well for Grigorenko but not in a capacity that is conducive to high levels of production. The Roy effect on Grigorenko will be to keep him in North America, the jump in points will come with more usage in 2016-17 after Alex Tanguay leaves.