Sunday, July 26, 2015

Ian Gooding

2015-07-26

Injuries to players named Nick Backstrom, Adam Larsson, and the Devils' downfall

You would probably think that this is my dead time of year as a fantasy hockey writer. But it is quite the opposite. I just submitted my article for the Dobber Fantasy Guide, I'm covering the Ramblings both tonight and a few nights from now, and I'm working on another special assignment for Dobber that is somewhat time consuming. Good times, but it means that I put a few other personal items on hold for now.

In addition to my numerous responsibilities, I'm trying to finalize the start of offseason transactions for a salary cap league that I commission. (If you're a commissioner, do you commission? That explains my use of the word "commission" there.) Offseason transactions for this league include the entry draft (one draft-eligible player per team), RFA selection (players on expired contracts who finished below a certain number of points last season), and finally the very active UFA bidding (via message board, players on expired contracts above a certain number of points go to the highest bidder).

There are numerous responsibilities to being the commissioner of this league that make it far more time-intensive than your average league. Manually adding and removing players from rosters, entering contracts, and monitoring bids to ensure their legality are among the tasks. I took on being commissioner of this league because the previous commissioner left and no one else seemed to step up. Something I've learned through my years as an employee: If you're the one that asks who's going to do this, you're probably going to be the one doing it.

All in all, this is a fun league. It's certainly not a league for a passive fantasy hockey participant, since there are a lot of rules. In fact, I've been going through a lengthy back-and-forth email discussion with one prospective owner. To put it another way, I don't think I answered this many questions when I sold my first house. But again, this league targets the serious participant.

Anyway, if you have one of these types of leagues, and you're trying to find the right owner, might I suggest the Fantasy League Classifieds in the Forum. It will help you if you are looking for a new owner or a new league to join.

While I was in the Forum, I noticed the thread Backstrom could miss 5 months after hip surgery. So naturally I went to Google to find out which Backstrom this thread referred to (or more specifically, which Nick Backstrom). Interestingly enough, there was injury news on both players from this month.

The more recent news, which happens to be the Nicklas Backstrom that you're probably more interested in, is from Fox Sports. The Capitals' center is hoping to be ready for the season opener following offseason hip surgery. Despite the optimistic words, even the possibility of missing the start of the season will lower a player's preseason draft value. And I do have a tendency to knock players down a little for that reason. I've missed out on some great seasons using that strategy, but I've also avoided injuries that have lingered well into the season.

As for the other Backstrom (Niklas Backstrom), this is news from earlier in the month (Minneapolis Star-Tribune). But it's an injury in which borders on scary, as he had suffered nerve damage in his right hand and was unable to move two of his fingers at one point. Yes, Backstrom is still on the Wild roster as the third goalie with one more year left on his contract. Remember that the Wild can't buy him out because he's injured, so Backstrom's contract could be a mini Marc Savard or Chris Pronger if his elbow injury persists.

The most significant hockey news of Saturday was the Devils' signing of Adam Larsson to a six-year, $25 million contract, avoiding arbitration (TSN).

Aside from Cory Schneider, there are surprisingly few Devils that would be more valuable fantasy-wise than Larsson. I'm not kidding about that, either. Adam Henrique and Mike Cammalleri come to mind, but not much else. At the moment, you'd have an easier time finding a snowball in h-e-double hockey sticks than you would a Devils' skater with significant fantasy value.

At the moment, the Devils possess the third-lowest payroll in the NHL at $57.48 million (General Fanager). But a closer look at the dollars the Devils have spent doesn't make you think of the Oakland A's during the height of their Moneyball era. Have a look:

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Travis Zajac, 25 points in 74 games, $5.75 million per season

Ryane Clowe, 4 points in 13 games, $4.85 million per season

Tuomo Ruutu, 13 points in 77 games, $3.8 million per season

Dainius Zubrus, 10 points in 74 games, $3.1 million per season

In other words, if you play in one of those salary cap leagues that uses real cap numbers (not the ones that are based on bids, such as mine), you're avoiding Devils players like the plague. This is a team that looks destined to finish in the bottom-5 of the standings this season, making it a strong Auston Matthews contender.

It makes you wonder whether the Leafs know what they're getting into with Lamoriello. He receives a ton of credit for the Devils' run of dominance during the 90s and the 00s, and rightfully so. He's had his hands tied with the Devils' unstable ownership situation, but has Lou L proven that he can manage a team in the cap world? The Ilya Kovalchuk signing was obviously a bad mistake on numerous levels, given the lowered draft pick the Devils received as a circumvention penalty, the team's inability to re-sign Zach Parise, and of course Kovalchuk's decision to bolt back to Russia.

Back to Larsson, who was a much different player during the second half of last season. Before the New Year, Larsson had recorded just four points in 21 games while averaging no more than 17 minutes per game from October to December. Yet when his responsibility increased after the new year (averaging at least 22 minutes from January to April), Larsson scored 20 points in 44 games. But what's really holding Larsson back fantasy-wise is his lack of power-play minutes. Last season, he averaged only 19 seconds per game on the man advantage while failing to even record a point.

That could change in 2015-16, though. Larsson is only 22 years of age and is one of the relatively few solid young players in the Devils' organization. In addition, new Devils coach John Hynes seems to favor a more up-tempo system, which could help Larsson's point totals even more. So all in all, this is a contract that should provide the Devils with better value than the ones listed above.

Another bit of news from Saturday: the Rangers and Derek Stepan are reportedly $2 million apart on a one-year deal (NHL.com). Rangers fans and fantasy owners have to hope that this isn't something that's going to drag into training camp or possibly longer.

Thanks for reading, and enjoy your Sunday.

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12	DET	vs	TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12	BUF	vs	CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12	CBJ	vs	BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12	N.J	vs	CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12	DAL	vs	MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12	STL	vs	NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12	UTA	vs	COL
Dec 27 - 22:12	S.J	vs	VGK