Saturday, Aug. 15

Neil Parker

2015-08-15

Nino Niederreiter - USA Today Sports Images

 

A mid-August look at fantasy hockey bubble players who might be worth a look in deep leagues …

 

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An important part of fantasy sports is being a step ahead of the competition. A real shocker, I know, but the information overload leaves little room for doing so. It is critical then to take a few speculative stances. One way to do so is focusing ahead fully and not clinging to past production too firmly.

 

This is somewhat more relevant in fantasy football because the National Football League is an upheaval league, but the National Hockey League is no longer an old boys' club, either.

 

So often the case for a player is built entirely on what they've done in the past and not what they're capable of going forward. Simple stuff, right? Still, as the fantasy hockey content spills out over the next two months just take note of how much emphasis is placed on the past and not the upcoming.

 

Obviously, statistics should support an aspect of your analysis, just be wary of buying into fantasy stocks because of what they've done because those stats won't count for you during the 2015-16 season.

 

With that said, taking a speculative leap of faith and reaching for Chris Kreider in the third round is ill-advised, too. Meanwhile, viewing 34-year-old Radim Vrbata as a 30-goal lock because he has 98 over the past four seasons might be too aggressive on the alternative side.

 

Those are cherry-picked examples, but the point stands.

 

 

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Continuing, here are some bubble forwards for deep leagues based on my first draft of rankings. They'll be combed over again next week, and I'll publish them at some point in the near future.

 

Most standard/default leagues at Yahoo!, ESPN, CBS are extremely shallow, so the working definition of deep league here is three centers, left wingers and right wings in the starting lineup and five defenseman. Two starting goaltenders is fairly standard.

 

Additionally, who knows how far the position eligibility liberties will be taken, which makes things incredibly more difficult to project ahead of time. As a general rule, center is deep, and when Evgeni Malkin, Tyler Seguin, Claude Giroux and Steven Stamkos hold winger eligibility it increase their value. I'm working under the assumption of every player being listed where they normally play.

 

Centers

 

Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres: Yes, he should be drafted in all formats, but he is also a rookie on a team, that while promising, certainly shouldn't be viewed as significantly improved. At least not immediately. There is potential for a prolonged slump or two from the rookie, too. The upside for a top-25 finish among centers is there, but it would be contradicting everything we've seen from rookies over the past 10 seasons, especially those entering the league at 18 and tasked with center duties. Winger eligibility would be a huge boon for Eichel's fantasy stock.

 

Paul Stastny, St. Louis Blues: Without exposure to legit top-six talents, Stastny projects to be a disappointment again. Jori Lehtera's injury might open an opportunity for Stastny to receive better linemates, and perhaps Stastny takes the ball and runs with it. Cracking 50 points with Patrik Berglund and Dmitrij Jaskin at your flanks is a lot to ask.

 

Mikko Koivu, Minnesota Wild: The old standby is just that, and he doesn't project to see even-strength minutes with Zach Parise again next season. Add his deployment against the opposition's top players and 60 points are almost out of reach. The Wild also have a scoring-by-committee approach, and they boast a number of youngsters ready to shield Koivu, especially offensively. He'll have stretches, but he won't be a consistent weekly contributor.

 

Left wingers

 

Boone Jenner, Columbus Blue Jackets: It is tough not to like Jenner's upside, situation and play. He passes the eye test nightly and can chip in across all categories. He also seems to fit wherever the Jackets slot him in the lineup. Still, at best, he is a fringe winger in most leagues, and this is an example where a step forward is built into ranking him as a fringe top-35 left winger.

 

Kris Versteeg, Chicago Blackhawks: Obviously, there could be some outstanding drama surrounding the Blackhawks, and where Versteeg fits in the lineup is a bit of a wildcard. However, he wasn't healthy down the stretch or in the playoffs last season, and he proved he still has juice with a mid-season, 20-game run of point-per-game production. He'll receive a chance to secure a top-six spot, and there is plenty of value in that role.

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Patrick Maroon, Anaheim Ducks: He is a lock in most leagues, if you're guaranteed he is going to play 75 games with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. While it seems extremely likely, it isn't a given. It also isn't a given he'll rack up the penalty minutes in a scoring role, either. However, Maroon is exactly the type of player to hone in on late if your draft because he has 25-goal, 50-point potential with a side of nastiness.

 

Right wingers

 

Jimmy Hayes, Boston Bruins: The Florida castaway could be a sneaky flier in the black and gold. Assuming he is handed top-six minutes and power-play time, 25 goals are within reach, and there were only 45 players who hit that mark last season. He has the size and is in the midst of his offensive prime. Don't sleep on Hayes in deep leagues.

 

Jaromir Jagr, Florida Panthers: What do we make of the 43-year-old Jagr? He looked rejuvenated among the Florida youth movement, and there is no denying his puck skills in the offensive zone. At this same time, though, the rigors of an 82-game season project to take their toll, don't they? It won't be flashy, but he did score 47 points last season, and his numbers with the Panthers went for better than a 70-point pace.

 

Nino Niederreiter, Minnesota Wild: The script flipped during the 2014-15 season, as Niederreiter scored 24 goals and posted 37 points, whereas the year before he posted 36 points with 14 goals. The goal-scoring Niederreiter is the one we want on our virtual team, but can he come with the assists, too? Remember, El Nino is entering just his age-23 season, so there is room for growth. The only question is whether he'll be let loose. He needs more than 14:33 minutes per game to take the next step.

 

 

These are just a few players who stood out in my rankings around the 30th-to-40th range among their peers. They'll all have stretches where they're more valuable than that, barring injury, of course, but they'll also likely lulls along the way.

 

Remember, just because you draft a guy doesn't mean you have to stick with him for the season, or for the week or month for that matter. Also be willing to grab a player in fine form from your waiver wire. And, make sure to chase upside late in drafts. 40-point players are a dime a dozen.

 

 

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The Anaheim Ducks locked up Carl Hagelin to a four-year, $16 million deal. The pint-sized speedster's point-per-game mark has dropped annually, and he is better served as a third-line winger than top-six fixture.

 

So, we'll see how the Ducks utilize him, but it is impossible to imagine he'll gel with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. Next to the Ryan KeslerJakob Silfverberg duo doesn't seem like a fit, either.

 

He is a fantasy afterthought in most leagues, unless you crave those 15ish-goal types.

 

 

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The Leafs bringing in Jacques Lemaire seems interesting. Head coach Mike Bobcock noted his experience and connection with Lemaire as positives. And why not add another chef to the kitchen, am I right?

 

 

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Enjoy the weekend, folks.

 

 

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