August 17 2015

Dobber

2015-08-17

Thoughts on Justin Schultz, Gonchar's tryout, what I got when I traded Ekblad, some great Kane insight and more…

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Happy Monday! Just a quick note about my Draft Kings $10 deal (in which you get my Fantasy Guide, Draft List, Prospects Report, Midseason Guide and Playoff list for just the ten bucks – details here) – I'm having an increase in people who click the link and don't have an account on DobberHockey.

When you sign up at Draft Kings and deposit your $10 bones, make sure you also have an account on DobberHockey. Not the forum – that's something different. But right here on DobberHockey. I need that account so I can put your downloads in your 'Downloads' section. Right now I have 13 email addresses without a home. So Nikolas, Rob, EasyE, Jon, Andres, pleb27, Chris, pagday, Adrian, tdotplaya, Hockeyflynn, James and shafer – sign up using the link at the top and let me get you your gold!

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I just realized that I told you in the Ramblings two weeks ago that I made an offer to a continuous rebuilder of my Aaron Ekblad for a first, a second, and a third round pick. I said it would solve my problems in terms of no draft picks in the first four rounds, and the downgrade would be just my keeping Adam Larsson or Cody Franson instead. Since it's a points league that gives partial points for shots, plus/minus and PPPts, I figure I wouldn't lose much. As I expected, he took the deal. Then he offered me Perron, Maatta and five firsts (all this year) for Ovechkin. Nope. Maybe – maybe – if those firsts were spread out over a few years and I was rebuilding then it's worth a counter. But no.

As for Larsson, another owner offered me a pick upgrade of 12th round to seventh round for him. So I did that. Looks like I'm keeping Franson! And suddenly, I have a pick pretty much every round this year, and I'm only missing my second and third in 2016. Not bad for a team coming off four years – 2nd/1st/1st/1st. A good draft, aided by our good friends at Fantasy Hockey Geek (I swear by that draft kit help), and I'll get my title back. #cocky

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Did you see that the Penguins are giving Sergei Gonchar a tryout? It's been five years since the 41-year-old was last effective in either fantasy or reality, but that was with Pittsburgh. I have a pretty full defense corps for the Penguins already so this move would only hurt the likes of Adam Clendening and Tim Erixon, who are in tough to make the team. I admire the loyalty from both parties here, but this is the worst spot in terms of odds for Gonchar. Here is the depth chart per my Fantasy Guide:

Letang – Maatta

Pouliot – Dumoulin

Cole – Scuderi

Lovejoy – Erixon

Clendening – Gonchar

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Sami Salo, who missed last season with a wrist injury, has made it official – he's retired. Always a Band-Aid Boy – literally never played 80 games in a season and only reached 70 twice. But his best season fantasy-wise was in 2006-07 when he had 37 points in 67 games with 143 shots and an impressive six game-winners.

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The Red Wings signed free agent defenseman Robbie Russo to a two-year ELC. Russo was drafted in the fourth round by the Isles back in 2011 but didn't sign with them. Not as high profile as Mike Rielly to be sure, but he had 41 points in his last 40 games with Notre Dame. So is that the right choice for him? There are some real solid blue-line prospects for the Wings on the way, he'll definitely have to make himself stick out.

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Just discovered that the KHL has started their preseason. It will be 32 degrees today here in Toronto. Moscow (for example) is similar to that. But preseason hockey, okay.

Speaking of the KHL – did you see this Puck Daddy bit (from a few weeks ago) about Alexander Radulov? He's considering a return to the NHL and the hunch is that he will do so with the Avalanche. Patrick Roy was his coach in the QMJHL and the two have a bit of a bond. I'd consider taking a late flier on him, or a midseason wire claim, in my keeper league. Worth holding a spot for if it's only a year. I wasn't on board with that strategy of it was two or more years away, but one year sure – well worth risking it.

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Justin Schultz is a very polarizing player in fantasy hockey. Much like Kris Letang, his upside is probably 50 points on most teams, but through the roof on this team. Unlike Letang, Schultz lacks the 'complete game' skills that would guarantee success. So what you're left with is a risk. Schultz is a minus-56 in his 203-game NHL career. And he's also disliked (hated?) by the majority of Oiler fans (I said 'majority', not 'all'). A lot of hardcore analysts and Edmonton fans are truly convinced that he sucks. But I don't believe that. Not only was he drafted high (43rd overall), but the draft position was justified four years later when teams fought hard to sign him. So he joins a team with zero structure, and where the average age is like 11, and after three years of modest points and weak defense and suddenly he's a bust? Remarkable.

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Not me. I'll be giving him this season before even considering such a stance. This year his key for many reasons. First off, he just turned 25. So he's starting his prime. Second, this will be his fourth NHL season. Third, his team now has structure – or should, under Todd McLellan. Fourth, the team around him is better and more experienced. Fifth, Andrej Sekera. Sixth, Connor McDavid. He could be the next Mike Green. Lots of holes in his game, but they'll be covered up by teammates as well as the points that will pile up. I like him as a buy-low guy.

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Yesterday I posted my free box pool Excel sheets. I do this every year – regular season and playoffs. I put together a group of boxes so you can print them off and run pools at the office or the pub with your friends. This is free. I loaded them here. Also like that page, so I don't have to remind you in the Ramblings you'll just see the announcement twice a year when I post them. That FB page has been around for I believe four years, and as you can see I just post something when I'm putting in the box pool sheets.

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If you didn't read the Fragopoulos piece on Patrick Kane and what to do with him in fantasy hockey, I'm afraid I insist.

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ICYMI I posted my fantasy outlook for the Blackhawks. Here is the series so far:

Blackhawks

Hurricanes

Flames

Sabres

Bruins

Coyotes

Ducks

 

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Testing a video on the new site. This is Raanta after he was sent down last season:
 

 

2 Comments

  1. Woodrow 2015-08-17 at 10:09

    I like the strategy you have with Radulov as well, which is why I added him to my 3 keepers this summer. With the teams I have, I have the room to stash him on my bench. I see no downside at all with this strategy and if he does come back to the NHL, well Radulov, in spite of how much he is disliked in fantasy circles, should help my teams and that has to be the overriding consideration for any GM considering adding him to their team.

  2. Jon 2015-08-17 at 18:51

    You should have my info in order to process my downloads.

    Thanks

    Jon

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