Can Huberdeau take that next step, what does Trouba bring next year, and finding a new 30-goal scorer. 

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Keeping with the custom on Thursdays, I will be opening a thread under the one-year league section of the Dobber Forums today. This is an opportunity for readers to drop by and leave a question, preferably fantasy-related, that can be answered with a little bit more depth than 140 characters on Twitter.

The usual caveat applies: I’m not a prospects guy, I lean on the advice of those whose opinion I respect on players. Check out the Dobber Shop for the Prospects Report, as well as the fantasy guide this year itself. Other than that, come by to ask about keepers, projections, depth charts, or anything else fantasy-related. It will open around noon, and I’ll check in periodically.

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Even though it’s only a month (give or take) until training camps, it’s extremely slow this time of year for hockey news. One thing that did catch my eye yesterday was this:

Dustin Byfuglien is listed as only a FWD on @ESPNFantasy 's platform. That's it for the year. Their response: pic.twitter.com/nqPiHvlmWI

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) August 20, 2015

I have never been a person to really care about where a fantasy league is held. Whether it be FanTrax, Yahoo, ESPN, Dynasty Sports Empire, or wherever, fantasy leagues really don’t differ that much until the scoring changes. I have two keeper leagues that I have been a part of on ESPN for a few years now, and haven’t had an issue.

Not having Dustin Byfuglien as a defenceman on ESPN is extremely disappointing, though. The response from ESPN indicates that position eligibility is based on a report submitted of the player’s primary position. Well, Byfuglien moved back to defence at the start of December last year. Even with games missed, Byfuglien played over half the season on the blue line, plus the playoffs. Also, I would wager that the Jets plan on starting him on the blue line this year. It just doesn’t add up.

Byfuglien would still provide decent production in a fantasy league, but he would go from a top-5 (potentially top-3) defenceman in roto leagues to what, a top-25 forward? That would be a lot of value lost for those in keeper leagues. Not to have him as dual eligible, at the minimum, is a bad idea. It is not like this is choosing left wing or right wing for a player. This is a completely different situation.

I have emailed ESPN, and I encourage the readers that use their platform to do so as well. This should be changed immediately, or else one of the top defencemen in the fantasy game is unfairly pushed to a secondary role on keeper teams.

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While I’m on the topic of Winnipeg Jets defencemen, as I’m starting to compile my projections, it occurs to me that Jacob Trouba is starting to fly under fantasy radars.  There is a good reason for this, though.

I have discussed in these Ramblings before on how defencemen are starting to become more involved in the offence, particularly goal scoring, over the last few years. There are limits to this, though: Calgary was the only team in the NHL to have three defencemen crack either 10 goals or 40 points (and the same three guys did all three: Mark Giordano, Dennis Wideman, and T.J. Brodie).

There were also only eight teams that had at least two defencemen with 10 goals, and six teams with two defencemen who had 40 points. While the scoring from the d-men is going up, it’s not like it’s a league-wide explosion.

This is important because besides Byfuglien, Tobias Enstrom and Tyler Myers played the bulk of the power play time. Myers played the least of the three at 2:55 per game; Trouba was next at 1:56. Out of the 60 defencemen with between 50-175 total power play minutes, only four had double-digit power play points, and only one had more than 11 (John Carlson, 16).

Not having many power play points makes it real hard for defencemen to accumulate overall points. The league leaders at 5v5 last year had 32, and only 12 defencemen had at least 25. In a best-case scenario where Trouba racks up 25 or so five-on-five points, which would have been comparable to guys like Shea Weber, Justin Faulk, and Drew Doughty, it seems he would top out at 40 points max unless his power play situation changes. That would be if all goes right; I think pegging him for between 30-35 points is more realistic.

All of this is not a knock on Trouba. He is truly one of the most gifted young defenders in the game, and will be in the Norris Trophy conversation four or five years down the road. Unless he starts racking up power play minutes ahead of either Enstrom or Myers, though, his upside in fantasy hockey is capped for the near-term.

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There are times when projecting a player for the upcoming fantasy season where it’s extremely frustrating to get a handle on the future value. One guy that comes to mind is Eric Staal. Patrick Marleau would be another. Those are cases of sharp, age-related decline, and is different from a third forward that’s causing myself some headaches when pegging future production. The guy is Jonathan Huberdeau.

The Florida Panthers really didn’t do much in the offseason. The team they finished with last year is pretty much the team they’re going in with this year (does Reilly Smith count?). Also, the core of their team – Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad – are all aged 23 or younger next season. It is not like I don’t expect the team to progress, but there really isn’t an offensive threat to be feared yet. This isn’t a team with Crosby/Malkin gaining experience, or Toews/Kane. These are all very good players, but none are all-stars yet, or won’t be. That is an important distinction in situations.

I bring this all up because Huberdeau is establishing himself as a setup guy, which is fine, but who does he get the puck to? Does Brandon Pirri replicate or improve on what he did with the Panthers? Does Barkov breakout? Does Nick Bjugstad take a leap to be a 30-goal scorer? Does the power play improve with all these pieces? They had one fewer power play goal than the New Jersey Devils last year.

Progression of the team, and Huberdeau as a player, would indicate that he should improve on his 54 point season last. I am not convinced, I suppose. He can be a 15-goal, 40-assist guy and have a solid season again.  I want to see him add the goal scoring dimension to the game before I expect him to do so (fyi: he took 0.21 fewer shots per game last year than he did in his rookie season). For now, he seems to be a better points-only league option than a roto option.

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I wrote a column last season over at Sportsnet on finding trade targets to keep for this season. At the time, the advice was based on players that were having a down year (which is why Landeskog was on the list; after the article, he finished the season with 21 points in his final 22 games to finish with a respectable 59 overall). Another guy that was there was Brendan Gallagher.

Gallagher is a guy I have pegged as one of the next 30-goal scorers in the NHL. He has everything a fantasy owner should look for in a breakout scorer: he’s averaged 23 goals per 82 games over his three seasons, moved over three shots per game last year, and at the age of 23, is coming into his prime.

The assumption I’m making here is that Gallagher returns to the top line next year alongside Max Pacioretty. Also, that the Montreal power play will be better. Gallagher had just three power play goals last year. He could creep toward double-digit power play goals, not have his production change elsewhere, and hit the 30 goal mark. It is not unreasonable, also, that his even strength production improves as he should be handed more minutes this year than the time allotted last year (just over 14 minutes at even strength per game last year).

With a handful more power play goals, and increased production through volume at 5v5, Gallagher seems like a decent bet to crack the 30-goal mark. That is something becoming very, very valuable in fantasy leagues these days.  

*Stats from Hockey Abstract