Sifting Through the Ruble

Demetri Fragopoulos

2015-08-30

 

We have come to pay attention to salaries of players more so now than we have ever before – and the forex market is playering a bigger role in that

There is the instant analysis if a player was worth the signing in terms of cost, length and other conditions like signing bonuses, no-movement or no-trade clauses.

Then there is how a contract fits within a team’s salary cap structure, see Cap Friendly to view your players contract details. Smart teams take advantage of waiting out the others who have neared or gone over it.

Go one step further and you get into an article by Martin Merk of the IIHF in which he talks about the values of different currencies used by hockey playing nations.

He points out that while we NHL loving fans are focused on the values between the Canadian and American dollars other countries have been impacted, most notably Russia.

“If a player signed a contract in July 2014, his monthly salary in March 2015 was worth 43 per cent less in U.S. dollars, the currency many former NHL players have in the back of their heads when going east” writes Merk regarding KHL contracts and the value of the Ruble in which they are paid in.

Listed is a small group of players that have decided to come over to the NHL “such as Alexander Burmistrov, Artemi Panarin, Kirill Petrov, Sergei Plotnikov and Viktor Tikhonov” and a few more have left like Ivan Baranka, Erik Gutsafsson and Tony Martensson to play in other European teams.

This does not sound like much but if the values of the currencies remain at these current levels or grow worse we could have an influx of foreign players coming to the NHL in the near future. It would mean more articles like Sportsnet’s Luke Fox about the remaining unrestricted free agents that have yet to be signed or that of the StarTribune’s Michael Russo where he delves into why Matt Cooke is not under contract so far.

Who will get squeezed? The thirty year-olds, that is who.

Even when they get past the big three-oh, stars will still remain in the NHL. Their names still draw fans, coaches and general managers. It is those other level of players who could have some value to a team but only if the contract terms are workable. These are the guys that will get bounced, players like Bad Boyes and Lubomir Visnovsky to name only two.

You have batches of young kids that are always coming in threatening for jobs and add to it a potential of European players that want to earn better salaries.

The youngsters will be cheaper than the 30-year-old vet and have more upside and growth. The players from Europe may not be as cheap as the kids, but certainly cheaper than the vets, and they will likely be NHL ready.

What can save jobs for guys like Matt Cooke, Boyes and Visnovsky?

Certainly more NHL revenues would. However, the Canadian dollar has dropped in value and we know how much the Canadian teams are a part of the revenue growers.

Adidas will be taking over as the official maker of all 30 NHL clubs by 2017-18 and that has stirred up talk about sweater ads. Well if it bumps up revenues both the players and teams will accept it.

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Expansion could also be on the way by 2017-18 too. That would certainly help to the plight of the vets that would want to stay on as NHLers.

Both those things, if they happen, are two seasons down the road though.

Except for the stars we could see the start of player salaries inch downward, if not in per year contract dollars possibly in short term contracts. That is predicated on there being General Managers who will keep their wallets in check. We do not usually see this kind of restraint though.

So if you are projected to have players that are over 30-years-old, especially over 35, in your keeper leagues you need to be cautious with them. It was a shock to read at the time that Boyes was being bought out earlier this summer. A similar story can happen again next summer.

There is an odd statement at the end of Merk article and it goes, “The good news for countries hit badly on the financial market is that economic theories have it that over- and undervaluation of currencies will be levelled in the long term. Until then however, the changing purchasing power of clubs, and along with that the composition of their rosters, may continue to shift in the near future.”

What good is that to them if their teams and leagues suffer, or worse fold, until the currencies balance themselves? There is no end in sight as to when the good times will return.

I digress.

Personally, I have taken a shot on Alexander Burmistrov with a very late pick in my keeper draft. Not expecting much but would be happy with Michael Frolik type of numbers. It is a gamble but I like how he and coach Paul Maurice have been in communication over the last two years.

The best outcome would be that I’ve found a small gold nugget.

The worst outcome would be that a year later I dump him so he can re-join the rest of the rubble.

 

 

 

One Comment

  1. isle b. 2015-08-31 at 23:44

    I don't think Visnovsky is a UFA because of an influx of Russians or younger players; he's pushing 40 and has had his bell rung too many times.

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