An early look at Yahoo Average Draft Positions, and their utility as the draft season wears on.

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As is tradition with every Thursday, I will be opening a thread over at the newly-revamped Dobber Forums. The thread is open to the readers to come in and pose any question they might have for the upcoming fantasy hockey season. It could be a trade offer, keeper selections, projections, or anything else that comes to mind.

The open thread – it will be titled Ask Cliffy Anything – comes with the usual caveat: I am not a person that delves into prospects beyond trusting the opinion of those I trust who do. In that sense, if the readers are uncertain about a prospect, I recommend the Dobber Prospects Report available in the Dobber Shop. Other than that, fire away!

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With the opening of Yahoo Fantasy Hockey for the year comes the inevitable: Average Draft Positions.

When trying to determine fantasy value, and when to draft a player, ADP is certainly a tool that needs to be used. Knowing where the general public is drafting a certain player gives an idea to the user on where they might go in their own drafts.

There are a couple of limitations to ADP, though.

First, it is not universally applicable. Just because a player has an ADP of 120 (or the end of the 10^th round in a 12-team league), that doesn’t mean an owner wanting this player has the luxury of waiting until early in the 10^th round to make the pick. It is important to know your draft room in home leagues. That means knowing how prospects are valued, which owners are fans of which teams, and so on. As I will demonstrate in a little bit, ADPs can vary wildly.

Second, the nature of the league has to be taken into account. Leagues that value real-time stats (hits, face-offs, blocked shots) will vary a player’s value. As will leagues with average time on ice. Knowing what settings are used in the ADPs is crucial.

There are also benefits to using ADP.  

ADP can be used to track how a player is valued through the draft season. In fantasy baseball this year, Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant rose about three or four rounds from the start of the draft season to the end. This will happen with certain players – typically young potential stars – as the draft season wears on. A player may be a value in the second week of September in the 10^th round, but by the time the first week of October rolls around, he’s a 7^th round pick, and the value in the pick is minimized or eliminated. Someone not paying attention to ADP might draft this player in the 7^th round, thinking it presents a reasonable price, when in the macro scope of things, it is not.

The second benefit, which applies to those that play public leagues on Yahoo or ESPN, is that ADP discrepancies arise between those two sites. Last year alone, I can remember Henrik Zetterberg going about three rounds earlier on ESPN than on Yahoo. That is important information. Many fantasy owners are prepared for drafts, but I would wager that even more are not. Being able to save a couple rounds on a player just because of the host site is a small edge, but an edge nonetheless.  

With the first benefit in mind, here are some players I was interested in looking for their ADPs early in the draft year. I took part in five Yahoo mock drafts with standard roto scoring. I threw out two of them because some of the drafters left before the end of the 12^th round, or the end of the starters. This is what I found from a few players I was eyeing in the other three mocks.

(The numbers in parentheses represent the overall draft position.)

John Klingberg (72-114-132)

I talked about this on Twitter, but this is a guy I can see having a wild ADP from league to league as the season approaches. Remember, there’s not much NHL track record here (about two-thirds of a rookie season), and that can scare some people.

Notice how Klingberg was drafted at the tail end of the 6^th round in one, and at the tail end of the 11^th round in another. It was the biggest spread I could find in the mocks.

I have a lot of confidence in Klingberg. He was an elite producer in the Swedish Hockey League (or SEL, whichever you want to use) as an aggregate as a 20- and 21-year old defenceman. He is the top puck moving defenceman in arguably the best offence in the NHL (I still think Pittsburgh gives them a run for their money). He is one of the maybe dozen or so defencemen I think have a legitimate shot at 50 points this year.

This is a situation to monitor. He shouldn’t be drafted outside the top-25 defencemen, so getting him around that point, or a little later, is good value.

John Carlson (63-68-71)

The earliest that Carlson went in the mocks was the 13^th defenceman off the board, but at not real point did he plummet. The latest he went was the 15^th defenceman off the board.

This is a trend that should continue through the draft season. I don’t see any league where owners let the top offensive defenceman on that Washington power play slide.

What I do see is some value in where he is being taken. Truth be told, if I’m waiting on a defenceman, I am more than ok with Carlson being the top defenceman on my team. Think about it: Carlson put up 55 points last year (tied for 5^th in the league among d-men), and played over a minute less per game in power play time than the now-departed Mike Green.

With a guy that should be a lock for 20+ power play points, 50+ points overall, around a double-digit plus rating, and near 200 shots, I see a lot of good production. He finished just outside the top-10 d-men last year in fantasy, and no longer has an obstacle to consistent top power play minutes. Yes, please.

Tyler Toffoli (122-133-141)

The Los Angeles Kings as a whole are down in drafts this year. Drew Doughty – at least early on – has slid from his position last year. As have Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter. In fact, Carter wasn’t going too much earlier than where Toffoli was.

Toffoli has been fantastic his first two years. On a per minute basis, he’s top-20 among NHL forwards in production at even strength. He is ahead of elite producers like Max Pacioretty and John Tavares. The difference in total production is they get more ice time, and power play time.

The time on the PP will determine Toffoli’s value. He is tied on the Kings with Jeff Carter in five-on-five goals per minute over the last two years, but in those two seasons, has more short-handed goals (5) than power play goals (4). That is absurd.

If Toffoli can get to 16-17 minutes a game, and regular top power play time, this could be the steal of the draft. We would be talking close to 30 goals and 60 points with a pick outside the 10^th round. His usage will dictate his value, and at his price right now, that’s a gamble worth taking.

Jaden Schwartz (84-89-104)

I am not a huge of Schwartz going into this year, and part of it was I was worried about an inflated ADP. I genuinely thought he would be a fourth or fifth round pick. So far, in a 12-team league, he’s going outside the seventh round. This is one of those “keep an eye on him” guys.

In the three mocks I did, Schwartz went seven picks ahead of Patrick Marleau, seven picks after Patrick Marleau, and two rounds after Patrick Marleau. As I mentioned, I was worried about an inflated ADP, but if he’s honestly being drafted around the Marleau-Turris-Little range, I will take Schwartz every day in this roto setup.

Steve Mason (95-108-123)

I am starting to believe in waiting on goaltending, and getting a guy who has the same five-on-five save percentage as Braden Holtby and Cory Schneider over the last three years at a discount is a good place to start.

I get it, Philadelphia wasn’t very good defensively last year, and I’m not sure they’ll be much better this year. With that said, pairing Mason with a guy who should have a low goals against average like Roberto Luongo, or much later with Eddie Lack, isn’t a bad plan. Think of it this way: Is anyone convinced the Devils will be as good, or better, than the Flyers next year? If the answer is no, why is Mason going four or five rounds later than Schneider? Schneider is the better individual goalie, but his team is probably not. 

2014-2015 stats taken from Hockey Abstract. Year-over-year stats taken from Hockey Analysis.