Vasilevskiy injury, Kucherov vs. Parise, Lightning’s cap situation

I didn’t mean to make today’s Ramblings an all-Tampa Bay Lightning themed one. But when I’m writing, one thing… one thing leads to another.

The significant fantasy news of the day has Andrei Vasilevskiy out 2-3 months after surgery to remove a blood clot (NHL.com). I recall answering this particular question on the Forum earlier a couple weeks ago, and I have to say I was surprised to see the lack of love for Ben Bishop. Not to take anything away from Vasilevskiy, but Bishop just won 40 games and took his team to the Stanley Cup Final. There’s no way Bishop was going to give up the starter’s job in 2015-16.

This injury only solidifies Bishop as a Tier 1 goalie (albeit maybe a lower-end one), as listed on the Puck Daddy Dobber goalie rankings. But the injury could also bring Kristers Gudlevskis in as Bishop’s backup while Vasilevskiy is out. The name doesn’t ring a bell, you say? Remember the Latvian 55-save performance against Canada at the 2014 Olympics? Yup, that’s him. At about the 1:24 mark of the video below, you’ll see some saves from that game, which turned out to be a nailbiting 2-1 win for Canada.

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The next in my series of mini Cage Matches features Nikita Kucherov vs. Zach Parise. Again, apologies to Rick Roos for swiping part of the feature name. His lawyer hasn’t called me yet, so it must be all good. J

Why am I comparing Kucherov and Parise, players at two different stages of their careers who don’t even play the same forward position? I have a personal agenda with this one again. I can keep three forwards on one of my keeper teams. Two forwards that I am almost certain to keep are Phil Kessel and Tyler Johnson. This is the same keeper team that I am faced with the dilemma of keeping either Tuukka Rask or Devan Dubnyk.

One forward is a Dobber favorite whose career appears to be on the rise, while the other has battled injury the past two seasons and is now on the other side of 30. I use the term “Dobber favorite” not just because of his high ranking in the Dobber keeper rankings but also because of the love he seemed to receive on the Forums this past season. Parise, on the other hand, is rated higher by NHL.com’s latest fantasy rankings (assumed to be single-season).

2014-15 tale of the tape:

Kucherov: 82 GP, 29 G, 36 A, +38, 15 PPP, 191 SOG, 14:57 TOI/G

Parise: 74 GP, 33 G, 29 A, +21, 16 PPP, 259 SOG, 19:11 TOI/G

What I find most intriguing about Kucherov is that his breakout season of 65 points happened in spite of playing less than 15 minutes per game. His 2:12 per game average of power-play time suggests second-unit power-play minutes, similar to his fellow Triplets Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat. Steven Stamkos, Valtteri Filppula, and Ryan Callahan each had just over three minutes of power-play time per game.

Not surprisingly then, Kucherov was one of the NHL’s top 5-on-5 players last season with 2.61 points/60 minutes. Johnson (3.00) and Palat (2.91) finished 1-2 in this category among players who played at least 500 minutes. It will be interesting to see whether Jon Cooper decides to tinker with the Bolts’ power play, which finished middle of the pack last season at 18.8 percent. If the Triplets are promoted to the top unit, there could be even bigger gains in store.

To compare, Parise finished with a decent 2.16 points/60 minutes with the 3+ minutes of power-play indicative of first-unit power-play time. In spite of that, Parise scored only one more power-play point than Kucherov, but Parise played in eight fewer games than Kucherov overall.

Given the size of his contract and the lack of other primary scoring options in Minnesota, there is no doubt Parise will play first-line minutes. Over a full season, Parise has at least an outside shot at 70 points. But having missed a total of 23 games over the past two seasons, Parise is at least a minor injury risk.

I plan to keep a center (Johnson) and a right wing (Kessel), so left wing Parise would easily balance things out. However, I would still have three more forwards to fill at each position anyway, so I would make it a priority to draft a decent left wing or two early if I retain Kucherov.

If this is a single-season draft, I’m taking the more proven option in Parise. However, I have the opportunity to keep these players not only for 2015-16, but also beyond. Kucherov’s long-term value may be contingent on keeping the Triplets together, which salary cap-wise could be easier said than done. Even if the Bolts can’t keep these guys together, Kucherov appears to have a bright future. I’ll trust the Dobber rankings and go with Kucherov on this one.

Source: Hockey Analysis

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In last weekend’s Ramblings, I went over the precarious salary cap situation of the Anaheim Ducks. So in keeping with the recent theme of Lightning and salary caps, let’s break down the Bolts’ cap situation. If you don’t feel like reading the rest of this, I’ll summarize: The Lightning are in a great situation again in 2015-16, but things will really start to get tricky starting in 2016-17. And I’m just as amazed as you are that the Bolts are paying Sam Gagner $1.6 million even though he has never played a game for them.

You might already know that Steven Stamkos has one year left on his $7.5 million per season contract before he becomes a UFA. (Hey Toronto, stick a Blue Jays’ hat on this guy – it’ll be like you’re drafting him to play for the Leafs!)

.@RealStamkos91 took the field before today's game for some BP and grounders pic.twitter.com/4t0uE5KvlN

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) August 28, 2015

Other moves will be predicated on what the Bolts do with Stamkos. Keeping Stamkos could mean that Kucherov, who will be an RFA next summer, is traded. Same with Alex Killorn, who will also be a UFA next summer. Palat and Johnson are still two years away, but decisions will need to be made eventually.

Letting Stamkos walk, of course, will put the Bolts in a much better position to sign all the Triplets and build their team around them. We saw during the Stanley Cup Final that the Triplets might be the Bolts’ de facto number one line, given Stamkos’ relatively low icetime totals in some playoff games.

What about the goaltenders? Bishop has two years left on a contract that’s worth nearly $6 million. By that time Vasilevskiy might be ready to step in as a full-time NHL starter. He’ll be the Schneider to Bishop’s Luongo, or the Bernier to Bishop’s Quick, as Dobber himself would say (or whatever I tried to say that Dobber said). But assuming Vasilevskiy is unproven as an NHL starter at that point, the Bolts probably won’t have to pay him $6 million, which could mean it would make sense to let Bishop’s contract run out.

Source: Cap Friendly

Thanks for reading, and enjoy your Saturday.