News of the day, Fantasy Hockey Geek, and Stone vs. Scheifele

First, some news tidbits for the day:

I was remiss to mention Rich Peverley’s retirement announcement yesterday. Peverley missed all of the 2014-15 season after he collapsed on the bench late in the 2013-14 season. It’s good to see that his life is back to normal after what was a scary incident (NHL.com).

Is Dan Cleary a Red Wings lifer? It seems that way, as Cleary will be back for his 11^th season with the Wings. He has long since provided any significant value to fantasy teams, though (NHL.com).

Remember when teams were salivating over Jonas Gustavsson, aka The Monster? He’ll be getting a tryout with the Bruins. Whether or not you believe in Tuukka Rask, you have to believe that he’ll start at least three-quarters of the time. So does it make much sense to keep Malcolm Subban around for a handful of games? But before you assume Gustavsson will make it as the backup goalie, keep in mind that the Bruins also have Jeremy Smith, who might be perfect for the backup job. The 26-year-old Smith posted a 2.05 GAA and .933 SV% in 39 games in the AHL last season.

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The Fantasy Hockey Geek is back just in time for back to school! You can read Terry Campkin’s first Geek of the Week piece for the 2015-16 season now. Be sure to spend a few minutes on this article, as there’s a ton of useful information. If you’re not familiar with the FHG (or simply, the Geek), it’s an awesome tool that recognizes that many leagues are created differently and that standard ranking systems often overlook these individual league nuances.

I had the pleasure of using the Geek on a trial basis about three years ago on my keeper salary cap league, and I can rightfully say it took me to the next level. Although I did not win that season (I lost in the semifinal to the eventual winner), it set me up for success as I was able to win the championship the following two seasons. Because this league has some unique scoring characteristics, it allowed me to rank players much differently than the usual ranking systems. That way, I knew which players to focus my attention on when placing my bids.

You can purchase the Fantasy Hockey Geek Draft Kit or at least find out more information about it here. Whether or not you decide to purchase it, here’s one piece of simple advice that I’ll give you before we bear down into our fantasy drafts: KNOW YOUR SCORING SYSTEM. Standard ranking systems will take you down the wrong path if you don’t understand this. I won’t get into that right now, since Terry already took care of that. But don’t be too cool for school to understand this.

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Today’s Ramblings fantasy hockey player comparison is a battle of the Marks: Mark Stone vs. Mark Scheifele. Both Marks were right wings on my keeper league salary cap team last season. I had to give significant raises to both in order to keep them, but so far I’m glad I have. Stone will remain as a RW on CBS, although Scheifele is now listed as a C on CBS. They also have the same position eligibilities on Yahoo.

Before we continue, I’ll let Rick keep the name “Cage Match” all to himself (with no more lawyer comments, I promise!) I like the name “Who’s Better in Fantasy Hockey,” in the spirit of the “Who’s Better?” articles of Stan Fischler that used to run in Hockey Digest back in the 1980s. There were some interesting choices for player comparisons in those articles, such as Dale Hawerchuk vs. Ron Francis, Mark Messier vs. Michel Goulet, and the ever-popular Wayne Gretzky vs. Bryan Trottier battle. (Believe it or not, Trottier won because he had more Stanley Cups at the time and was considered the better all-around player.)

Back to the modern-day players. You probably already have a choice picked out, but I have a feeling that this will be closer than you think. Also keep in mind that Scheifele is actually ranked a wee bit higher (126) than Stone (129) on Yahoo, which by itself makes a player comparison worthwhile.

Both are in their early 20s, so the best is likely yet to come. Scheifele has two full seasons under his belt, while Stone has one. Below is the side-by-side comparison from 2014-15:

Scheifele: 82 GP, 15 G, 34 A, 49 PTS, +11, 13 PPP, 170 SOG, 18:35 TOI/G

Stone: 80 GP, 26 G, 38 A, 64 PTS, +21, 13 PPP, 157 SOG, 17:01 TOI/G

Something that jumps out at me as I type this is the fact that Stone outscored Scheifele by a significant margin in 2014-15. A margin of 11 goals and 15 points over the same number of games should on the surface suggest an oversight on the part of the Yahoo rankers. Stone wins. Thanks for coming out everyone, drive safely. Right?

Not so fast. Look more closely at the shot on goal totals from both players. Scheifele shot at a fairly low 8.8 percent rate in 2014-15, down from the 13 percent he shot in his rookie season of 2013-14. On the other, it almost seemed as if every puck Stone shot at times during his rookie season crossed the goal line, which showed in his 16.6 percent shooting rate. The month of April was particularly kind to Stone, where he scored seven goals on 24 shots in six games for a shooting percentage of nearly 30 percent over that span!

A closer look at Stone’s month-by-month splits shows that in spite of the April hot streak that seemed to elevate him to fantasy stardom, he remained relatively consistent throughout the season. From November on, Stone did not score fewer than three goals in any one month, and his monthly shooting percentage never fell below 11 percent. By comparison, Scheifele’s month-by-month shooting percentage varied between 4.2 percent and 12.5 percent.

Based on those numbers, we can conclude that Stone has the better shot and will score more goals as a result. The power-play points and shots on goal will probably end up as a dead heat. I believe the point total differences will be closer than you think, particularly if Scheifele lines up with two shooters like Blake Wheeler and Drew Stafford like he did toward the end of 2014-15 (Frozen Pool). But as a result, Scheifele’s point totals will once again be assist-heavy.

Take away Stone’s hot April and Stone is about a 22-goal and 60-point scorer. Don’t expect a whole lot more than that, which suggests that improving on 2014-15 will be a very tall order. Based on Scheifele’s point progression and possible shooting percentage improvement, 55 points is a strong possibility with an outside shot at 20 goals.

You might want to knock Scheifele down a peg (pardon the pun, I can’t help myself sometimes) if your league counts faceoff percentage. He has won only 42.6 percent of the faceoffs he has taken in his career. His 42.9 percent rating was the worst among the 54 players who took at least 1000 draws in 2014-15 (NHL.com).

So this comparison probably only confirmed what many of us figured all along: Stone is the better fantasy option than Scheifele. But not by as much as you might have thought originally. And hopefully this gave us the opportunity to learn something about both players.

Thanks for reading, and enjoy your Sunday.