Oliver Ekman-Larsson might be more valuable in fantasy leagues than you think.

Draft season is just around the corner, so it’s time to start getting some prep work done to make sure that you’re ready to take down a championship. Winning at the draft table is simple: You need to select players who will provide value that outperforms the position in which you picked them. This week, I am profiling a player who is virtually guaranteed to do just that in Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

OEL is highly regarded in NHL circles as one of the more talented defensemen in the league, but the real life perception hasn’t fully translated into fantasy perception. He is currently being drafted (on average) as the 88th overall player and 16th highest defenseman in Yahoo! leagues. As a guy who only scored 43 points last season toiling away in Arizona, you may think that this sounds about right…but you would be wrong. I ran last season’s full year statistics in Fantasy Hockey Geek and look how OEL ranked:

(12 team Yahoo! H2H league measuring G, A, PPP, SOG, Hits, W, Sv%, GAA, SO)

OEL was the second most valuable defenseman in this league and the 14^th most valuable player overall. This is incredible value for a guy who is currently being drafted later than TJ Oshie and Tomas Tatar. Nothing against Oshie or Tatar, but they are a little bit above replacement level wingers, while OEL is a legitimate stud defenseman.

So why are GMs overlooking OEL and why are they wrong to do so?

1. His low point total

With only 43 points last season he was 23^rd amongst NHL defenseman, and there isn’t much elite about that. What some GMs miss though, is that of those 43 points, a whopping 23 were goals, placing him #1 amongst rearguards on the year, and there definitely is something elite about that. Getting 20+ goals from that position is huge. It’s almost a full goal per week more than what a replacement level D would provide.

2. GMs undervalue peripherals

I wrote about this last week. Fantasy GMs often undervalue the impact of a player with elite peripheral stats. With 264 shots, OEL was 11^th amongst all NHLers last season and second to only Erik Karlsson amongst defensemen. The top 25 scoring defencemen last season averaged 188 shots or 76 less than OEL. On top of that, OEL had the second most hits (167) out of all top 25 scoring D, crushing their average of 97. OEL’s superior output in these two categories propel his value immensely. Using the what-if tool on FHG (a tool where you can see how a players’ value would be affected if you alter his stats), I changed OEL’s shots and hits to the top 25 average as opposed to his elite level. Look what happened:
 

Suddenly, OEL would be ranked 44^th overall and much closer to Johnny Boychuk territory. That’s a significant ranking difference of 29 slots based solely on shots and hits. This really shows where OEL gets his value from and also why it is so important to understand the value impact of different peripheral stats.

3: GMs may be overlooking OEL’s upside

All of the values I have referenced above are based on last season’s data where OEL only scored 43 points, but I believe that there is room for a lot more. Ekman-Larsson scored those 43 points on a terrible Arizona team that was literally trying to lose games, and he also accumulated those points while playing a large portion of the season as second fiddle to Keith Yandle. Looking at the splits from last season, you can see that OEL scored 12 points in 19 March/April games, which is a 52 point pace. Some people may not have realized this, but of course Dobber does. Another beautiful thing about FHG is that it allows you to input Dobber’s projections to see what a player’s value would be based on the projections. Here is how OEL looks for the upcoming season:
 

Based on Dobber’s projections, OEL could be a top 10 player in a league of this format! Dobber’s projections aren’t far-fetched by any means either, in fact I wouldn’t be surprised to see OEL surpass these numbers. Being able to see player’s values based on Dobber’s projections is a really cool feature in FHG that is especially beneficial at this time of year.

It should be noted that the value calculated here is for a league that is almost perfectly suited to what OEL has to offer, and if it were a league that counted +/- or PIMs and excluded hits then his value would not be as high. Even in a less than ideal league though (G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, PIM) FHG calculates Ekman-Larsson as the 55^th most valuable player, which is well above his draft position. His high end output in shots and goals will elevate his value in almost any league.

So what we have here is a dynamic, potentially elite fantasy defenseman who is flying a little bit below the radar because of the factors I laid out above. I should also note that he never misses a game. Do yourself a favor and draft this guy sometime around the 4^th to 6^th  round (depending on your league settings). He could provide first or second-round value and be a cornerstone to your D-core. To see how OEL measures up in your own league and find some more great value like him, sign into FHG, and run the numbers specific to your league settings.