Tuesday, Sept. 15
Neil Parker
2015-09-15
10 Bold Predictions, Brad Marchand, Magnus Paajarvi, Mikko Rantanen, Johan Franzen and more in a parting shot …
This is my parting shot, and I want to start with a thank you to Dobber for approaching me with the opportunity to join his team this summer. It was an honor, and there are certainly no soft spots with the audience here. You hold us to task and crave quality. Good on you because a quick jaunt through the fantasy funnies will lead to a lot of empty content with weak analysis. Keep it up Dobber Hockey fans.
This is a unique platform, and we're asked to tackle news and take stances with an edge. It has been fun, and it has been a learning experience in many ways. Thanks to all of you, I'm appreciative for the opportunity.
So … let's goooooooooo.
***
Brad Marchand said his right elbow is not 100 percent after offseason surgery to repair torn tendons, and it bothers him when he shoots too much.
Well, it stands to suggest he enters the early season with a slightly heightened injury risk. Enter contact and an uptick in physicality in games, and shooting won't be the only wear on his elbow. He didn't begin upper-body work until August due to the surgery,either.
It is just a minor fantasy concern, though, as there is no way Boston allows their potential goal leader to play limited or with a chance of aggravating the injury.
It also shouldn't been seen as anything to impact Marchand's draft stock. He owns a high floor because of his multi-category contributions, and if he can grab more power-play opportunities his offensive number project to climb. Remember, Marchand averaged less than a minute of power-play time per game last season.
It is just something to watch for in camp, and if he isn't shooting regularly early in the season it could be an explanation.
Again, considering where you're able to grab Marchand in drafts, there isn't a lot to worry about with the injury. His current ADP at Yahoo is 139.9 or the fifth pick of Round 13, there is no risk with any pick at that stage, and Marchard is currently a steal.
***
Sticking with Boston, Joonas Kemppainen is impressing beat writers and pushing for a roster spot. He has a two-way deal, so there isn't a lot security, but he projects as a capable bottom-six center who could push Ryan Spooner to the wing or minors depending on how things play out over the next few weeks.
Kemppainen has nine years of professional experience in Finland and is likely better suited for a lower-line role than Spooner. Boston could also deploy a more balanced attack at even strength, too, though, which is actually more likely.
Just another camp situation to watch.
***
Magnus Paajarvi is eager to prove he warrants a roster spot with the St. Louis Blues. In fact, he took an offseason pay cut and likely forwent a raise by not signing in Europe.
He added weight entering the 2014-15 season to better withstand the demands of a bottom-six role, but has shed it entering training camp this year.
The 24-year-old winger doesn't appear to have any shot at a top-six role, and he has proven time and time again to be unsuccessful as a lower-line forward. Unfortunately, he appears to have bottomed out with St. Louis, as a number of players have leapfrogged him on the depth chart and a number of youngsters have arrived.
I wouldn't necessarily write off Paajarvi as a NHL player, but at this point, his fantasy stock isn't worth rostering. Entering his offensive prime and with a respectable track record in the American Hockey League, a change of scene is needed here.
It is a classic example of a player who needs to play in an offensive role to be a successful NHL player, but isn't good enough to be that player for St. Louis. I would be surprised if he cleared waivers this season at his $700,000 salary. Teams like the Arizona Coyotes or Toronto Maple Leafs shouldn't allow him to.
***
Saturday, I shared some links to projected rosters for the World Cup.
Here are all eight teams:
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Mikko Rantanen has a legit shot at breaking camp with the Colorado Avalanche. The Aves have consistently rolled with 18-year-old players (Matt Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly in 2009, Gabriel Landeskog in 2011 and Nathan MacKinnon in 2013), and Rantanen has the size and experience to do the same.
Additionally, he has the option to play in the AHL this year, so there is no reason to return him to Finland. He might not stick all season, and a poor camp would almost guarantee he starts in the minors. Expect Rantanen to open with Colorado, though, as long as he doesn't blow it over the next three weeks.
A quick look at their roster makes it pretty clear there are holes to fill, and top-six minutes aren't out of reach for the rookie. Still, he is nothing more than a late-round flier at this point. Although, his fantasy stock could gain more steam with the right line assignment.
***
As speculated — or at least questioned — in my last ramblings, Conor McDavid did not play last night in the Young Stars Classic.
Brad Ziemer doesn't agree, though.
Silly, Brad.
***
Johan Franzen has been cleared to participate in training camp. He last played in early January, and where he fits into the lineup will be interesting, as will how productive he'll be entering his age-36 season.
With just 87 games and 23 goals over the past two seasons, there is nothing to be excited about with Franzen. Sure, his per-game production remains respectable, but there is no upside and his likely yo-yo act in and out of the lineup probably won't be worth the headache.
***
10 bold predictions for the 2015-16 season
1. The Boston Bruins miss the playoffs, and Tuukka Rask finishes outside the top-12 fantasy goalies.
2. Jack Eichel scores more goals than Conor McDavid, and the Buffalo Sabres make the playoffs. The Edmonton Oilers, meanwhile, miss the postseason for the 10th consecutive year.
3. Devan Dubnyk is the No. 1 goalie in fantasy hockey with 40 wins, a sub-2.00 goals-against average and plus-.925 save percentage.
4. Steven Stamkos has another let-down showing and finishes with fewer than 40 goals and 70 points, and he doesn't re-sign with the Tampa Bay Lightning, either.
5. John Tavares leads the NHL in points, and the New York Islanders grab home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs. Or, in other words, the Isle are the best team in the Eastern Conference.
6. The Western Conference takes the Winnipeg Jets seriously, and they miss the playoffs because Ondrej Pavelec and Michael Hutchinson implode.
7. Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen dance the 1A-1B tango all season and backstop the league's highest-scoring team to a Central Division title.
8. The Vancouver Canucks finish as the second-worst team in the Western Conference, and Jacob Markstrom unseats Ryan Miller as the No. 1 goalie by the All-Star break.
9. Marko Dano breaks out for fantasy hockey owners with 25 goals, 40 helpers, a plus-15 rating, 60 penalty minutes, 185 shots and 200 hits.
10. None of the Triplets (Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat) score 30 goals or top 65 points, and the line is broken up shortly after the All-Star break.
And a bonus ….
11. The Toronto Maple Leafs aren't mathematically eliminated from the playoffs until April.
***
Thanks again, all. You can find me on the Twitter Machine, and dishing out daily fantasy hockey at TheFakeHockey.com, USA Today, Rotowire and Daily Fantasy Cafe over the coming months.
I look forward to joining you on the viewer side right here. Seriously, it is like jumping over the bar and joining the crowd for a pint at the end of your shift after slinging them all day.
19 Comments
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Wow, are you serious with those predictions…I think I disagree with every one. Aren’t you suppose to be an expert. You were off your game today.
BOLD is the key word there. By definition most people aren't going to agree with them, hell, Neil may not even believe most of them.
In his defense, these were termed BOLD predictions. The key with these are they're not necessarily supposed to come true, but they make you stop and think and maybe, just maybe, a few of them do come to fruition. In short, they probably won't happen, but they just might, and if they don't they still might help you readjust your thoughts about guys like Dubnyk, Dano, and the rest.
And I may as well use this occasion to announce that, with Dobber's blessing, you'll be seeing me resurrect the yearly favorite "10 Fearless Forecasts" column (penned annually by long time DobberHockey favotite Jeff Angus) at the end of September. If you think some of these are bold, just wait until you read what I'm predicting. Stay tuned!
You is understand English good!
Incredible how many kiss asses are here on dobber. This site is a shell of itself from a few years back, aside from dobber the writings been medocre at best.Your BOLD predictions were pretty lame.
Dumb comment. With 16 DobberHockey writers if you can find five that you enjoy, you’re already ahead of what you were getting a few years ago when there were only five writers period. And you can’t tell me you don’t enjoy any of the writers or features besides my stuff, come on. Just a sweeping statement from someone I’m guessing pops on here once a week and makes a judgement. If you can read each of the last 15 articles posted here (which is just going back three days) I’ll guarantee you’ll find at least 10 of them helpful and informative in some way. In fact, I’ll wager good money on it. Geez, I find them helpful and I’m supposedly the one who needs the least help (at least…that’s the image I should be portraying). You just insulted 16 good, smart, hardworking people without cause.
Like I said, I LOVE Neil’s bold predictions. Not kissing ass, if I didn’t like them I would say nothing.
Awesome predictions! I think commenter Tyler must have missed his coffee this morning. I agree with 1 and 4. And I am pretty close to agreeing with (I can 'see' it happening) 3, 7, 8 and 11. The only one that absolutely won't happen is 2. All in all, I enjoyed.
You've been great this summer, thanks a lot Neil!
Thanks for your efforts this summer Neil!
Thanks for the work this summer Niel. It has been good.
You should also let people know how MPS should be picked up by the Devils if the Leafs and Coyotes let him drop past!
your parting shot was way too nice to be a parting shot.
Anyway, thanks for the work this summer – toughest time of the year to put something together when the news is so scarce.
Franzens entering his age 26 year??
hmmm I predict a solid next 10 years for him, but injuries will come around to hurt his stock
Nice catch — FIXED! Â
Good work Neil. Your ramblings were solid this summer and the effort is appreciated!
I like your predictions. Only 2 I really disagree with are 10 (Johnson should get 65 pts no problem, especially if Stamkos struggles like you also predict – should result in more pp time for the triplets). Kucherov should top 30 goals with the additional pp time as well. And the Leafs? With Bettman's "everybody gets points" system it is hard to be mathmatically eliminated before April, but the Leafs will have no problem doing just that. Thanks for the ramblings this summer.
Kidding aside, I liked the predictions. Dano for 65 is as bold as the come though. You probably coulda got away with 55 as a bold enough points prediction
Working under the assumption Dano – Toews – Hossa.
You're right, though.
Awesome job covering content over the dry summer season, Neil. Tip of the hat to ya, for all the good reads. Enjoyed the longshot predictions…and I'll buy you a case if Dubnyk actually comes out on top !
Ohhhh boy. It’s the off-season, everyone is scrapping stuff together to fill the page. If you can’t appreciate that or the content that is always provided…for free, especially during the season, then you can’t be helped. I wish you luck in life.
Thank you for the contributions. I like bold predictions too, if even one sticks you can always claim you were the guy that called it!
And what with dfs?