Top 100 Rotisserie Players – Sept 2015

Mike McMillan

2015-09-16

The Top 100 roto-league players as we enter 2015 NHL training camps…

At long last – The Top 100 Roto is back after taking a summer hiatus. My name is Mike McMillan, taking over what Austin Wallace took over in turn from Gates Imbeau two years ago, and hoping to continue producing the best Roto Player Rankings on the 'net.

In case you didn't follow the Roto last season, we use a formula provided by Fantasy Hockey Geek and that weighs all statistical categories on a per game basis to provide a single number value for each player. This is then weighted against the Dobber Hockey player projections to rank the best 100 players (forwards and defensemen only) in a straightforward evaluation.

The standard categories used are as follows:

Goals
Assists
Plus/Minus
Penalty Minutes
Shots on Goal
Power Play Points
Hits
PDO (5 on 5)
Shooting Percentage Differential (5 on 5)

The formula values each category based on repeatability so that a consistent year-to-year stat such as SOG will be more important when evaluating players compared to a varying stat such as plus/minus. To determine a player's production consistency we use their per-game averages weighted over multiple years. And to help you figure out if a player’s surge up the rankings is just a lucky streak or if he is here to stay, we’re including PDO and Shooting Percentage to show you how lucky a player has been getting. For the first time readers, this is how the those stats can help your roster decisions:

Shooting Percentage Differential: How different a player’s shooting percentage this year (Since we don’t have any 2015/16 data yet, it will be showing last season) is from his career average. So if a player is usually a 10% shooter, but shot 15% last year, it’s a red flag as his shooting percentage may regress back to normal.

PDO Differential: How many percentage points someone’s PDO is from 100. As a quick reminder, a PDO of 100 means that when a player is on the ice both goalies are letting in shots at the same rate. If your opponent's goalie is letting in shots at a much higher rate, that can be a mix of talent or luck but is usually at least somewhat lucky. Thus, a player with a PDO of below 100, he should have some lucky bounces coming his way in the future. We are looking at the top 100 players in the world, so their PDO will probably be a bit above 100, but not too much.

As the season goes along, the rankings will gradually incorporate current-season production at a higher and higher weight. With that, we will see some movement in the list and I’ll highlight some players to keep on your radar along the way. The best way to use this information as you approach your Roto draft is take a look at the current ADP’s of your league provider and use this as a guideline to find some undervalued players that put up great peripheral stats but may not be appreciated due to lower goal scoring.

Here is the September Top 100 Roto…

(editor's note – apologies for table format, can't get this to sit right, will work on for next month)

Rank	Name	Value	G	A	+/-	PIM	SOG	PPP	HITS	PDO	SH%Diff
1	Alex Ovechkin	161	51	21	4	4	28	30	23	96.5	-3.29%
2	Sidney Crosby	114	31	39	9	2	11	24	-2	100.8	-1.55%
3	Evgeni Malkin	114	33	36	9	9	13	28	-15	101.7	0.03%
4	Dustin Byfuglien	113	21	21	-3	21	18	13	22	96	-0.25%
5	Tyler Seguin	110	39	31	9	-5	19	19	-2	103	1.17%
6	David Backes	104	26	22	9	18	3	4	23	100.9	0.18%
7	John Tavares	103	35	34	4	1	11	22	-2	102.1	1.72%
8	Evander Kane	100	31	17	-9	11	29	-2	23	98.1	-0.51%
9	Jamie Benn	100	32	34	8	7	12	9	-2	103.5	1.38%
10	Kris Letang	98	13	31	10	10	9	15	9	97.4	-2.99%
11	Claude Giroux	97	26	33	2	-1	11	28	-2	101.2	0.31%
12	Steven Stamkos	97	42	21	8	2	10	16	-2	103	0.58%
13	Brandon Dubinsky	94	21	25	7	11	8	0	23	101.7	0.27%
14	Erik Karlsson	93	20	31	7	-2	18	22	-3	99	0.10%
15	Corey Perry	92	39	21	11	10	11	3	-2	103.7	1.88%
16	Milan Lucic	90	21	22	10	17	-1	-2	23	103.7	-0.05%
17	Jakub Voracek	90	22	35	3	8	4	21	-2	101.8	-0.79%
18	Alexander Steen	88	28	27	11	1	10	13	-2	99	0.74%
19	Gabriel Landeskog	88	25	24	8	10	8	3	10	103.8	2.20%
20	Taylor Hall	86	32	30	-2	3	20	6	-2	100.8	0.70%
21	Kevin Shattenkirk	86	11	31	10	2	10	24	-3	99.5	-0.11%
22	Nicklas Backstrom	86	17	39	4	1	0	26	-2	98.4	-1.91%
23	Wayne Simmonds	85	28	18	-3	12	4	16	10	101.7	0.35%
24	P.K. Subban	84	15	29	9	7	9	18	-3	99.4	-0.38%
25	Max Pacioretty	83	38	19	8	-1	19	3	-2	101.6	0.69%
26	Joe Pavelski	83	33	21	9	-3	7	18	-2	102.2	0.34%
27	Ryan Getzlaf	83	27	32	10	5	3	7	-2	104.8	2.73%
28	Martin Hanzal	82	20	22	-2	10	6	3	23	99.3	-0.09%
29	Scott Hartnell	81	23	20	-2	20	4	6	10	101.4	-0.93%
30	Brent Burns	80	17	27	0	7	10	10	9	102.7	1.49%
31	Henrik Zetterberg	80	19	34	3	-3	10	19	-2	104.1	2.35%
32	Kyle Okposo	80	27	29	2	0	15	8	-2	101	1.53%
33	Blake Wheeler	80	27	24	1	7	8	2	10	100.6	-0.52%
34	Shea Weber	79	17	23	3	7	9	10	9	100	0.63%
35	Patrick Kane	79	33	33	5	-6	9	19	-15	100.9	-0.16%
36	Rick Nash	78	41	17	2	0	23	-1	-2	101.3	-1.40%
37	Zach Parise	78	32	22	1	1	15	10	-2	99.9	-0.75%
38	Dion Phaneuf	78	7	18	5	18	3	6	22	103	1.00%
39	Chris Kreider	78	23	17	12	15	3	-2	10	101.9	0.19%
40	Patric Hornqvist	78	28	22	5	-2	17	9	-2	99.3	0.56%
41	Nick Foligno	77	29	21	0	6	3	7	10	101.2	1.97%
42	Ryan Kesler	76	22	16	8	11	6	2	10	99.6	-0.21%
43	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	75	20	18	-1	-1	16	14	9	100.7	-0.95%
44	Drew Doughty	75	9	25	12	4	8	8	9	100.8	-0.14%
45	Logan Couture	75	27	25	8	-7	11	11	-2	101.5	1.29%
46	Radim Vrbata	74	29	20	4	-4	15	13	-2	100.2	0.10%
47	Vladimir Tarasenko	74	38	25	7	-2	14	6	-15	103.9	1.01%
48	Nathan MacKinnon	74	27	25	3	-2	20	3	-2	103.4	0.00%
49	TJ Oshie	73	22	29 📢 advertisement:	11	6	1	7	-2	101.9	0.64%
50	Mark Giordano	72	15	30	10	2	9	10	-3	99.5	-0.21%
51	Dougie Hamilton	72	13	25	13	3	14	6	-3	103.9	0.83%
52	Patrick Sharp	71	25	21	3	2	15	7	-2	100.6	0.02%
53	Phil Kessel	70	32	28	-6	-3	18	17	-15	102.4	0.64%
54	Ryan Johansen	70	27	28	-3	1	6	13	-2	100.5	0.30%
55	James Neal	70	29	18	0	8	11	7	-2	100.7	0.45%
56	James Wisniewski	70	9	27	-1	5	5	16	9	100.6	0.11%
57	Radko Gudas	69	4	11	8	24	-2	-9	34	101	0.00%
58	Andrew Ladd	69	24	24	-6	9	4	4	10	100.4	-0.20%
59	Travis Hamonic	69	6	19	3	12	8	-2	22	99.9	-0.35%
60	Jonathan Toews	68	27	27	12	-1	2	4	-2	100.2	-0.38%
61	Nikita Kucherov	68	29	26	7	-1	7	2	-2	100.6	0.00%
62	Anze Kopitar	68	22	30	8	-6	1	15	-2	102.6	-0.22%
63	Pavel Datsyuk	67	25	32	6	-8	0	14	-2	98.3	-0.58%
64	Ryan Callahan	66	22	20	5	2	3	4	10	101	0.91%
65	Troy Brouwer	66	21	14	-1	7	-4	7	23	100.4	-0.15%
66	Keith Yandle	66	9	29	-2	0	14	19	-3	99.9	0.19%
67	Tom Wilson	66	7	14	-2	40	-4	-13	23	101.9	0.00%
68	Marian Gaborik	65	30	18	6	-5	10	9	-2	103.1	-0.37%
69	Slava Voynov	65	5	23	14	-4	0	5	22	99.7	-1.17%
70	Ondrej Palat	64	17	33	12	-3	-4	-1	10	104	-0.19%
71	Jeff Carter	64	29	23	4	-2	7	5	-2	99.7	-1.15%
72	Tyler Johnson	64	28	30	7	-5	4	1	-2	102.8	-0.18%
73	David Perron	63	24	19	-5	8	8	-2	10	100.6	0.26%
74	Matt Beleskey	63	23	11	6	6	1	-7	23	103	0.74%
75	Joe Thornton	62	15	35	8	-3	-3	13	-2	100.7	-0.07%
76	Mike Green	62	13	27	3	0	8	14	-3	98.4	-1.67%
77	Chris Kunitz	62	21	14	9	5	-2	3	10	102.6	1.11%
78	Kyle Turris	62	24	26	4	-1	6	5	-2	103.8	1.88%
79	Steve Downie	62	13	9	-2	58	-6	-8	-2	100.7	-1.18%
80	Justin Faulk	61	13	23	-1	-4	14	7	9	99	0.49%
81	Kyle Palmieri	61	22	16	4	6	5	-3	10	103	0.16%
82	Eric Staal	60	24	25	-4	4	10	3	-2	98.8	-0.70%
83	Erik Johnson	60	15	18	1	2	12	3	9	101.1	-0.12%
84	Nick Bjugstad	59	26	15	-3	2	11	-2	10	98.7	0.43%
85	Justin Abdelkader	59	24	14	-1	10	5	-2	10	101.2	1.20%
86	Patrice Bergeron	59	24	21	8	1	8	-1	-2	102.4	0.85%
87	Zac Rinaldo	59	1	6	-4	52	-18	-14	35	95.9	-1.58%
88	Victor Hedman	59	13	29	9	3	6	2	-3	100.4	-0.52%
89	Brett Sutter	59	0	53	-2	11	-12	-14	23	94.1	0.01%
90	Johnny Boychuk	59	9	18	14	-6	15	-1	9	101.6	1.56%
91	Marian Hossa	58	21	24	10	-2	4	3	-2	100.7	-0.09%
92	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	58	26	23	-3	-4	10	9	-2	100.2	-0.27%
93	Tomas Plekanec	58	24	18	4	1	9	3	-2	101.7	-1.08%
94	Boone Jenner	58	19	17	-3	2	0	0	23	101.4	0.00%
95	Filip Forsberg	57	21	26	0	-3	5	10	-2	89.2	-0.29%
96	Zach Bogosian	56	6	21	-6	13	7	-6	22	100.5	0.13%
97	David Krejci	55	18	26	11	0	0	3	-2	104.4	0.35%
98	Zack Kassian	55	17	15	-3	33	-8	-9	10	100.4	0.70%
99	John Carlson	55	11	26	7	-5	9	9	-3	99.9	-1.34%
100	Torey Krug	55	13	21	13	-5	7	9	-3	101.2	-0.24%

Dennis 2015-09-16 at 20:47Log in to Reply

Awesome list. Thank you for the SH%Dif and PDO description. Still trying to wrap my head around these new measurements.

can the list be re-run without PIMS ? Cheers Grapes
- Mike McMillan 2015-09-17 at 14:54Log in to Reply
  
  Thanks! If you follow all season, you'll really see how useful those luck stats can be. Send me a quick email mikemcmillan55 (@) gmail.com and I'll send you an updated list without PIMS.
ordinaryreporter 2015-09-22 at 01:08Log in to Reply

Hey Mike, Thanks for this list. It's perfect for my league. Evander Kane has been sitting on the waivers since his injury, basically. We keep between 3-5 players every year before draft. I was planning on targetting Kane early but I agree with your ranking so I picked him up off the waivers and I'm making him one my keepers, Jamie Benn, Rick Nash and Backstrom being the others. I have Logan Couture as well, but I'm concerned with his lower FOW tally. What do you think? (Thanks, again, man.)