Roos resurrects a DobberHockey favorite by making 10 truly bold forecasts for 2015-16………

Beyond fresh hopes for my fantasy teams to begin marches to victory, one of the joys of this time of year for me had been the 10 Fearless Forecasts column penned by Jeff Angus for DobberHockey. The column struck an excellent balance between making predictions that were truly bold yet also grounded enough in reality that you could imagine them – or at least a few of them – actually happening.

Rather than just remembering it nostalgically for yet another year, I decided to ask Dobber if I could skip Cage Match for a week and publish my own attempt at a 10 Fearless Forecasts column for 2015-16, and he gave me the go ahead. So with a stick tap to Angus – we still miss you buddy! – I present my list of 10 Fearless Forecasts for the 2015-16 season.

1) No player who has previously won an Art Ross Trophy will finish among the top three in scoring

Yup, that means no Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin (one or both of them have finished in the top three in seven of the past eight seasons), no Alex Ovechkin (top three five times), no Jamie Benn (top scorer last season), no Henrik Sedin or Daniel Sedin (top three once each), and, if we’re getting technical, no Joe Thornton, Jarome Iginla or Jaromir Jagr either. I see the top three as John Tavares, Tyler Seguin, and Jakub Voracek. I ruled Benn out because he won the Art Ross for 2014-15 on the heels of a completely insane run (15 points in six games!) at the end of the season, while Ovechkin is a bit windexy to actually be in the mix when the dust settles. As for Crosby and Malkin, I predict both will miss enough games to take them out of contention.

2) Chris Kreider will outpoint Rick Nash

Last season Kreider had only four more points than Nash had goals. Yet when watching Kreider, I felt that something special was about to bubble to the surface; and I think this season we see it happen. Also keep in mind that before finishing the 2014-15 regular season with no points in his final three games, Kreider had rattled off ten points in nine contests. A sign of things to come? I say yes. It’s also easy to forget now that during the 2013-14 playoffs Nash was fourth in total ice time per game among Ranger forwards and eighth in PP ice time, on his way to posting just ten points in 25 games. Sure – Nash’s contract will provide him every chance to succeed, but in the end Kreider might just make it impossible for the team not to lean on him more and more, and, with that, less and less on Nash.

3) A St. Louis netminder will finish among the top ten in NHL goalie wins

The 10th highest win total among NHL goalies was 34 in 2014-15, and 32 in 2013-14. As for the last time a Blues goaltender had more than even 30 wins – try way back in 2003-04; and I’m guessing nearly no one could name who it was without looking (answer below). The safe bet is that yet again the Blues goalie situation will unfold as a 1A/1B share between Brian Elliott and Jake Allen. But I think with the team’s two straight 50+ win campaigns followed by disappointing first round playoff exits they might decide the missing ingredient is a true #1 goalie, and hitch their horse to one of the two, with the other being relegated to traditional back-up. As for the answer, it was longtime Red Wing Chris Osgood.

4) Jordan Staal will post 55+ points

I realize Staal is now seen as a fantasy afterthought at best (the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide has him pegged at 38 points) and technically he’s never posted more than 50 points in a season; but someone in Carolina has to score, and Eric’s little brother did tally six points in his final ten games for 2014-15. Of course his Band-Aid Boy status could undermine this prediction; but somehow I feel things just might align very well for him, especially with expectations at pretty much an all-time low.

5) Ryan O’Reilly will outpoint all Avs forwards

O’Reilly going to Buffalo might scare many poolies away from drafting him in one year leagues, but count me among those who think he could challenge (or even exceed) his career high of 64 points this season. It’s an entirely different story out West, where Colorado’s top guys are poised to be a collective assortment that should be much better than the 50-60 points they all just might finish with yet again.

6) David Savard will be among the top 10 in defensemen in scoring

I like Columbus this season…….a lot. And I happen to believe things are aligned for Savard to break out big time. For one, Jack Johnson’s focus might not be 100% on hockey, leaving the door open for Savard to step up and take the reins. And let’s not forget Savard stands to absorb a nice chunk of the more than three minutes per game of PP Ice Time that now former Blue Jackets James Wisniewski (56 games) and Tim Erixon (19 games) averaged for the team last season. But the biggest factor is Savard was already a 50 point player during the last nearly 30% of the 2014-15 season, with 14 points in his final 23 games. Oh, and 50 points happens to be right at what the 10th highest scoring d-man averaged over the past two seasons (52 points in 2014-15, 49 in 2013-14).

7) Anze Kopitar will finally post a point per game season

Sure, he hasn’t come close to even flirting with the point per game mark since 2010-11 (73 points in 75 games) and finished last season with only 64 points, which was the lowest output of his career in any campaign where he played more than 72 games. But Kopitar actually tallied 51 points in his final 52 games of 2014-15, after a brutal start of 13 points in 27 games. Plus, Milan Lucic arguably gives him a lot more than what Dustin Brown offered in recent years. And don’t think it’s lost on me (or him) that he’ll either be playing for his next contract or trying to show that his new deal (if one is signed) was merited.

8) Kyle Turris or Sean Monahan will finish among the top five NHL centers in points

To put this in context, according to nhl.com the fifth highest scoring “center” for 2014-15 had 76 points, with Turris finishing 18th among centers and Monahan tied for 20th. And keep in mind that centers like Evgeni Malkin, Claude Giroux, Ryan Getzlaf, and Steven Stamkos didn’t even land within the top five for 2014-15! What it boils down to is Turris and Monahan were electric in the second half of last season (34 points in his final 34 games for Turris, 37 in his final 38 for Monahan), and I can envision one – or even both – building on that momentum to emerge with a 75+ point campaign in 2015-16.

9) There will be at least double the number of 40+ goal scorers as there were in 2014-15

For those who don’t recall, there were only three who hit the 40+ threshold last season (Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, Rick Nash), and the last time there were six or more was way back in 2009-10. Although you can tell from what I wrote above that I’m thinking Nash won’t make the list again, several others should for various reasons, namely 3×3 overtime (giving the best players more opportunities to pot markers), goal scoring rates from last season (Tyler Seguin and Corey Perry scored at a 40+ pace but didn’t play enough games), and natural talent progression (John Tavares and Vladimir Tarasenko finished last season with 38 and 37 respectively, and one has to think either or both will inch upwards to reach 40). And that’s not even mentioning the nirvana that Phil Kessel – already a three time 36+ goal scorer – is entering. Now all everyone has to do is stay healthy…..

And in the spirit of ending with a bang, I present #10, and yes – I’m serious……hear me out……

10) Either Marek Zidlicky or Zdena Chara (or both!) will finish with more points than John Carlson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Keith Yandle

I realize the 38 year old Zidlicky hasn’t tallied above 43 points in a season since Sidney Crosby was a rookie and Chara – also 38 – hasn’t bested 44 points since 2008-09, and I’m also fully aware that the last player not named Nicklas Lidstrom to post 45+ points at age 38 or older was Rob Blake, also back in 2008-09. But I still think a case can be made for both Zidlicky and Chara to far exceed expectations, while Carlson, OEL and Yandle will each disappoint.

Zidlicky is walking into seemingly as perfect of a situation as there could be for him, what with the Islanders being an offensive force (4th last season in goals scored) and arguably no other Islander d-man as well suited as him to QB their PP1. Beyond that, Zidlicky sees this season as his “last chance,” and his contract is full of incentives, so he won’t be resting on his laurels collecting paychecks. Need even more proof? Consider that walking band-aid boy – and still unsigned – Libomir Visnovsky managed 20 points in 53 games (31 point full season pace) for the Islanders last season, and I think Zidlicky should give the Islanders 150% of 2014-15 Visnovsky, which would equate to 46 points.

Chara is a fierce competitor who no doubt is humbled by his performance in recent seasons. Beyond that, he missed 19 regular season games in 2014-15 and didn’t have to take the ice for 25+ minutes per game for an added 1-2 months in the playoffs. That gives him the kind of rest he hasn’t had since following his first Bruins season, which is when the team last missed the playoffs, and after which Chara posted 51 points in 77 games for what’s still the top scoring pace season of his career.

As for Carlson, OEL and Yandle, although all are superbly talented, Carlson’s IPPs (Individual Points Percentages, i.e., how often he received a point when a goal was scored while he was on the ice at 5×5 or 5×4) were so outrageously high in 2014-15 that a 10+ point reduction in scoring is quite possible, while OEL will still be stuck playing super tough minutes on a Coyotes squad that might not even surpass its 165 goals from last season, and Yandle saw his ice time plummet on his way to a reduced scoring pace as part of a Rangers team that lost no key d-men in the offseason. Translation – none of them might hit even 45 points.

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There you have it; now let’s hear your feedback. You can use the comments below, and there’s a thread in the DobberHockey Forums to discuss your thoughts on these fearless forecasts, to vote on which one you think is most likely to actually come true, and to even go ahead and make some fearless forecasts of your own!

But just remember, the concept behind the column is fearless forecasts, which means a “swing for the fences” mentality, with the expectation that there might be a few home runs but also plenty of misses. After all, one of Angus’ Fearless Forecasts for 2010-11 was that Vesa Toskala would be a Vezina Trophy nominee. I think that pretty much puts things in proper perspective…..