Looking Ahead 2015-16: Week Two
Mike Schmidt
2015-10-09
Looking at the most favourable schedules in fantasy hockey for Week Two.
The NHL season is here, and fantasy owners are looking to get a sense of who is due to break out or see a decline in production. While it’s important to identify some underrated options at each position, poolies need to properly identify those players whose reputations carry a little more weight than they should heading into the season’s first few weeks. Let’s take a look at four who could disappoint their owners with underwhelming numbers in 2015-16…
Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Pittsburgh (Yahoo Original Rank: 31) – Pittsburgh’s “franchise goaltender” is one in name only. In 595 appearances for the Penguins over his career, Fleury has registered an uninspiring .911 save percentage. Owners who drafted him ahead of proven, above-average goaltenders such as Boston’s Tuukka Rask (Yahoo Original Rank of 33; career save percentage of .926), New Jersey’s Cory Schneider (Yahoo Original Rank of 43; career save percentage of .927) and Columbus’s Sergei Bobrovsky (Yahoo Original Rank of 59; career save percentage of .923) need to capitalize on Fleury’s standing as his squad’s sure-fire No. One goalie and sell him off before regression from last season’s incredible year (.920 save percentage and a career-best 10 shutouts) sets in. Fleury is a fine goaltender, but there are many others who can provide equal or better stats than him this season.
Nick Foligno, C/LW, Columbus (Yahoo Original Rank: 40) – Though he is slated to open the year on the same line as rising star Ryan Johansen and recent acquisition Brandon Saad, there are a number of reasons to think the 27-year-old Foligno is coming off a career-best campaign:
- His 2014-15 shooting percentage of .170 is nearly seven points above his career mark of .106.
- His 31 goals from a year ago represent Foligno’s first season in which he scored more than 30… and 20.
- His 42 assists are exactly double his previous high in a season.
Foligno can play, and he has made the most of his opportunity to skate alongside a high-end offensive force like Johansen, but asking him to match last year’s point totals and perform like he’s worth the 40th overall pick is asking a bit much from him. He’s a good fantasy option who has been ranked like a great one.
Kris Letang, D, Pittsburgh (Yahoo Original Rank: 56) – The longtime Pittsburgh defenseman is a fantastic fantasy option… when he plays. Since he saw action in every game of the 2010-11 campaign, Letang has missed 95 games in the four years since. He’s valued like an elite option at his position, but owning him in a fantasy league comes with significant more risk than employing other high-end blueliners who were drafted around Letang (St. Louis’s Alex Pietrangelo, Nashville’s Shea Weber, among others) in Yahoo leagues. There’s no replacing Letang’s production if he goes down for an extended period of time, and such a scenario is almost always an inevitability with him.
Jason Spezza, C, Dallas (Yahoo Original Rank: 98) – Spezza is still quite valuable in fantasy leagues of all types and sizes, but he hasn’t been a point-per-game player in four years and his production has waned more than a bit since his heyday with the Ottawa Senators. A 60-point player during his two seasons in Dallas, it’s reasonable to wonder how long he can continue to be an above-average option at his position. Spezza’s shooting percentage has declined in each of the past two seasons he has seen considerable action, and his shots on-goal per game is trending in the wrong direction. Playing on the same line as superstars Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn would provide a significant boost to the 32-year-old center’s fantasy value, but alas… ‘tis not to be (at this point in time).
Some NHL squads are primed to help poolies more than others in the coming week. With that in mind, let’s look ahead…
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
Tampa Bay – The Lightning kick off the 2015-16 season with six games between Thursday, Oct. 8 and Saturday, Nov. 17, including two matchups against the rebuilding Buffalo Sabres and one against the defensively-challenged Philadelphia Flyers. The volume is there, and the matchups are not that difficult.
Florida – Roberto Luongo and Co. open the season with back-to-back tilts with the Flyers, a road matchup against Carolina and a home game against Buffalo — all between Saturday Oct. 10 and Thursday, Oct. 15. Start any and all fantasy-relevant Panthers with confidence during that time.
Columbus – The opportunities will be there for the Blue Jackets to rack up stats in the season’s opening days. Columbus plays a whopping six games from Friday, Oct. 9 to Saturday, Oct. 17.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Toronto – Though the Leafs play three games between Wednesday, Oct. 7 and Saturday, Oct. 10, they will not take to the ice again until Friday, Oct. 16. That game, against host Columbus, will be the first of four road games for the Leafs.
Los Angeles – After opening the season with two games between Wednesday, Oct. 7 and Friday, Oct, 9, the Kings are off for three straight nights. Simply stated, the volume isn’t there for Los Angeles.
Philadelphia – The Flyers host the always-dangerous Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday, Oct. 14. Then they are off for five days. Then they host the offensively-explosive Dallas Stars. Enough said.
Friday, October 9 to Thursday, October 15 |
Best Bets |
Florida 4.36 – four games – PHIx2, CAR and BUF |
Tampa Bay 4.19 – four games – BUF, BOS, DET and DAL |
Columbus 4.04 – four games – NYRx2, BUF and OTT |
Chicago 3.90 – four games – NYIx2, PHI and WAS |
Montreal 3.80 – four games – BOS, OTT, PIT and NYR |
Steer Clear |
San Jose 1.75 – two games – ANA and WAS |
Calgary 2.00 – two games – VAN and STL |
Toronto 2.10 – two games – DET and OTT |
Minnesota 2.14 – two games – STL and ARI |
Colorado 2.15 – two games – DAL and BOS |
Saturday, October 10 to Friday, October 16 |
Best Bets |
Anaheim 4.56 – four games – three at home |
Florida 4.36 – four games – PHIx2, CAR and BUF |
Columbus 4.25 – four games – NYR, BUF, OTT and TOR |
Tampa Bay 4.19 – four games – BUF, BOS, DET and DAL |
Montreal 3.80 – four games – BOS, OTT, PIT and NYR |
Steer Clear |
Los Angeles 2.00 – two games – VAN and EDM |
Toronto 2.00 – two games – OTT and CBJ |
Arizona 2.70 – three games -PIT, ANA and MIN |
San Jose 2.79 – three games – two on road |
New York Rangers 2.81 – three games – CBJ, WPG and MTL |
Sunday, October 11 to Saturday, October 17 |
Best Bets |
Tampa Bay 4.31 – four games – BOS, DET, DAL and BUF |
Florida 4.31 – four games – PHI, CAR, BUF and DAL |
Columbus 4.21 – four games – BUF, OTT, TOR and CHI |
Montreal 4.01 – four games – OTT, PIT, NYR and DET |
Ottawa 3.69 – four games – MTL, CBJ, PIT and NSH |
Steer Clear |
New York Rangers 1.76 – two games – WPG and MTL |
Toronto 1.85 – two games – both on road |
Colorado 1.86 – two games -BOS and ANA
📢 advertisement:
|
Los Angeles 2.00 – two games – VAN and MIN |
Minnesota 2.00 – two games – both on road |
Monday, October 12 to Sunday, October 18 |
Best Bets |
Anaheim 4.41 – four games – all at home |
Tampa Bay 4.31 – four games – BOS, DET, DAL and BUF |
Florida 4.31 – four games – PHI, CAR, BUF and DAL |
Columbus 4.21 – four games – BUF, OTT, TOR and CHI |
Edmonton 3.94 – four games – DAL, STL, CGY and VAN |
Steer Clear |
Colorado 2.71 – three games – two on road |
Toronto 1.85 – two games – both on road |
Arizona 2.75 – three games – ANA, MIN and MOS |
Philadelphia 2.10 – two games – FLA and CHI |
Minnesota 2.80 – three games – all on road |
Tuesday, October 13 to Monday, October 19 |
Best Bets |
New York Rangers 4.07 – four games – three at home |
St. Louis 3.85 – four games – CGY, EDM, VAN and WPG |
San Jose 3.75 – four games – WAS, NJD, NYI and NYR |
Edmonton 3.94 – four games – DAL, STL, CGY and VAN |
Tampa Bay 3.36 – three games – two at home |
Steer Clear |
Philadelphia 0.95 – one game – CHI |
Toronto 1.85 – two games – both on road |
Buffalo 2.00 – two games – both on road |
New York Islanders 2.15 – two games – NSH and SJS |
Boston 2.19 – two games – both on road |
Wednesday, October 14 to Tuesday, October 20 |
Best Bets |
Columbus 4.16 – four games – three at home |
Arizona 3.80 – four games – ANA, MIN, BOS and NJD |
St. Louis 3.66 – four games – EDM, VAN, WPG and MTL |
Pittsburgh 3.41 – three games – all at home |
New Jersey 3.32 – three games – two at home |
Steer Clear |
Detroit 1.81 – two games – CAR and MTL |
Toronto 1.85 – two games – both on road |
Carolina 1.90 – two games – both on road |
Buffalo 2.00 – two games – both on road |
Los Angeles 2.05 – two games – MIN and COL |
Thursday, October 15 to Wednesday, October 21 |
Best Bets |
Edmonton 4.10 – four games – STL, CGY, VAN and DET |
St. Louis 3.66 – four games – EDM, VAN, WPG and MTL |
Pittsburgh 3.41 – three games – all at home |
New Jersey 3.32 – three games – two at home |
Tampa Bay 3.21 – three games – two at home |
Steer Clear |
Ottawa 1.90 – two road games – PIT and NSH |
Chicago 1.91 – two games – WAS and CBJ |
Anaheim 2.05 – two games – COL and MIN |
Los Angeles 2.05 – two games – MIN and COL |
Winnipeg 2.05 – two games – CGY and STL |