Blake Wheeler is a multicategory monster. So why is his FHG value lower than his ADP?

At Geek of the Week, we often look to profile players who are undervalued by the general public in order to find you some players that can help propel your team up the standings. Something else we like to help with is figuring out the worth of certain players whose value is tough to determine. Today I am going to take a deep dive into Blake Wheeler, whose value I have personally always had a tough time with.

I have owned Blake Wheeler in my main keeper for four seasons now and I have always really liked him because the categories we measure (G, A, PPP, SOG, Hits) really lend themselves to Wheeler’s skills – particularly his ability to shoot and hit as a 60+ point guy. Without running the numbers, my gut would always say that Wheeler would be a very Fantasy Hockey Geek friendly guy and with a Yahoo! average draft position of 63^rd overall, I would suspect that he is a good value pick in most leagues. I ran the FHG numbers to see where his value came in compared to my hypothesis.

2013-14

2014-15

You can see from the above that Wheeler was only the 92md most valuable player last season and the 58^th most valuable in 2013-14. This suggests to me that his ADP is probably close to bang on – kudos to the general public. I was surprised to see his value this low though; as a perennial 60+ point guy with 240+ shots and 120+ hits in a league of this format, I would’ve expected Wheeler to be closer to about 30 or 40 overall, like a Ryan Johanssen or Patrick Marleau. Those guys are all showing value that is way greater than Wheeler’s though, so what gives?

A closer look at Wheeler’s number shows that there is one thing that is keeping him from providing top-end fantasy value: his powerplay production. Among the 48 NHL players who scored over 60 points last season, only two had fewer PPPs than Wheeler (Max Pacioretty and Ondrej Palat). In fact, Wheeler has never eclipsed the 20 PPP mark in his career. The FHG math is showing us that PPP is a very important category to a player’s value, and Wheeler’s poor output in this area really hurt his value last season. The PPP decline from 2013-14 to 2014-15 also helps to explain the big difference in his value between those two seasons.

Using Fantasy Hockey Geek has really helped me to understand what Wheeler’s value was over the last couple of seasons, and unfortunately, it seems that his actual value is right in line with the public perception, so there isn’t much opportunity here. That’s based on historical numbers, though, and despite his last year’s numbers, I am still slightly bullish on Wheeler. Here’s why:

Consistency: Wheeler plays almost every game and has eclipsed 60 points in each of the last four seasons (60-point pace in the lockout season). You might also be surprised to learn that in that over the course of those four seasons, Wheeler is 22^nd in points scored in the entire NHL, ahead of players like Patrick Sharp, Henrik Zetteberg, Daniel Sedin and Corey Perry. Some of this is injury related, but let’s face it, injuries are part of fantasy hockey too. Wheeler’s proven ability to show up game in and game out is a huge asset.

His finishes: Over the past four seasons (excluding lockout season because there were no October games), Wheeler has scored at a 47-point pace in October and then played at a 69-point pace over the remainder of the season. In a league with a playoff component, I have always appreciated this about Wheeler because the October matchups matter a lot less to me. Further to this point, Wheeler has actually got out of the gate quickly in the current campaign with three points in two games. So maybe this is the season that he can maintain a strong pace all season and finally eclipse the 70-point mark.

The Jets powerplay: Wheeler’s low PPP output is a direct result of the Jets’ poor powerplay. In 2012-13 they were dead last in the league, but in 2013-14 they were 24^th, and last season they were 18^th. None of these results are good, but at least they are trending in the right direction. With Byfuglien, Myers, and Trouba on the blue line and a blossoming Scheifele, I think that there is room for this number to continue to improve. Wheeler continues to be a top minute man on the Jets’ top unit, so there may be some opportunity for growth here. If Blake can manage a few more powerplay points this season, his value could see a huge boost. Using the What-if tool on FHG to enter in my optimistic view of Wheeler, here is how he could look:

The potential value of 45th overall is much better and more in line with what I want from Wheeler. Twenty PPP is still a modest total, but getting his total a little further from the miniscule level it has been at will go a long way. I wouldn’t go and assume that this optimistic scenario is going to play out, but I do think that it’s a very real possibility because the best part about Wheeler is that his floor is very high. You know you can count on him for 60+ points to accompany some good hits and shots, so there isn’t much risk by adding him to your team.

With some help from FHG, I have been able to determine Wheeler’s historical value and also explain why his value hasn’t been as high as I may have expected. I have also been able to determine how valuable Wheeler could be if he ever did fix his one issue (PPP). Now it’s up to me as a GM to figure out if I think he can do it or not. I personally do, so I am going to hold on to Wheeler and hopefully watch him continue to climb the value rankings. To help figure out what some of your own players are worth, enter your league in FHG today and take a look at the results!