A look at the three hottest and coldest teams in the Western Conference – and where they'll go from here

The Coyotes won three of their first four games, while the Ducks and Kings cannot seem to win a game. This week, a look at six teams, three on either side of the Hare (hot) of Tortoise (cold) start ledger. The column will attempt to determine which teams are for real and which teams are an enigma and what that means for the general fantasy prospects of the players on those teams.

The Hares

Dallas

Dallas has started the season by winning four of its first five games. They have done it largely via their offense, having scored 19 goals in five games. That means they are averaging just less than four goals per game. Not much has changed at even strength for the Stars as their shooting and save percentages are nearly identical to last season. Their shooters are largely the same and their goaltending has started at a still below average rate. They are taking more shots and allowing less than 30 shots per 60 minutes at even strength, which explains some of their success. The real difference can be attributed to their power play as they have started the season launching shots at a prodigious rate. They finished last year with the sixth lowest shot rate on the power play, whereas this year their current rate would have them well ahead of the last year’s leader the Washington Capitals. They are also scoring on nearly 20% of those shots, while that will not last, keep an eye on their power play because if they continue to take shots at an elevated level they will continue to be one of the best offensive teams in the game.

San Jose

The San Jose Sharks disappointed last year in an entirely new way, by missing the playoffs as opposed to getting ousted early on. This year they have got off to a 4-1 start and are look much more like their 2013/14 selves than the last year’s disaster. The big problem last year was that they took considerably fewer shots than had in previous years. Their shot rate fell by four shots per 60 minutes at even strength last year. In conjunction with giving up more shots it was not a good look for the Sharks. Early in the season the Sharks look to have righted the ship. They are once again taking more than 30 shots per 60 minutes and are allowing an elite 26 shots per 60 minutes. While they are getting insanely good goaltending, boasting a 95% save percentage at even strength, which will undoubtedly regress to the mean if they continue at their current shot differential this team looks to be for real. The way the Sharks are playing should result in more goals as well as see an elite starter emerge. Look for the Sharks to once again be a great fantasy hockey bet.

Arizona

The Arizona Coyotes started the season with three wins in their first four games and then proceeded to look like the 2014/15 Coyotes against the Boston Bruins Saturday night. The way the Coyotes are winning however is wholly unsustainable. They currently boast a world beating 110 PDO while a mark around 100 is the mark of a ‘luck’ neutral team. That sky high PDO is based on an even strength shooting percentage of 14.1% and an even strength save percentage of 96.7. A lucky shooting team scores on about 10% of its shots and the best goaltending duos stop just over 92% of the shots they face. Unless the Coyotes have discovered some magic potion that allows them to defy history this will not last long. They currently take 27 shots per 60 minutes at even strength while allowing 36 shots against per 60 minutes at even strength. If they continue to get decimated like that every night than Mike Smith will need a huge bounce back season just to even keep them remotely competitive. To put the number of shots they allow in context, Buffalo allowed 34.5 shots against per 60 minutes at even strength last year. Meaning Mike Smith probably makes for a good buy low option as a second starter if saves and save percentage are a big part of the league’s goalie value. Equally problematic is that their power play is not the juggernaut it used to be as their shot rate has plummeted. In all, the Coyotoes are who everyone thought they were, if able to sell Martin Hanzal now.

The Tortoises

Anaheim

The Ducks look to have found the recipe for losing despite their goalies stopping 93% of the shots they face. By scoring on one out of every 30 shots they have managed to only win one of their first five games. Their shooting impotence extends to the power play where they have failed to score at all. They may as well not be shooting the puck at all, as they have currently hit their power play lowest shot rate in the last ten years. Other than that there is nothing to suggest that the Ducks will not rebound, at least at even strength. Their even strength shot rate is the highest it has been since 2005/6, meaning that if they manage to score on nine percent of their shots, a rate they have equaled every year over the past decade they will score 220 goals. That would equal their goal total from last season, which saw Ryan Getzlaf put up 70 points in a season where Corey Perry missed 15 games. At this rate there should be enough goals for Getzlaf and Perry to get theirs but otherwise not many Ducks will get more than 40 points. The troubling thing for the Ducks is that they are giving up more shots per game than they have in the last five years. The Duck goalies will need to continue to stand on their collective heads to keep this team from giving up more goals than they score. The Ducks goalies have generally been average at best over the last five years, so it will likely be imperative that the Ducks fix their defensive system. In all the Ducks show some troubling signs that make them a good early bail option.

Los Angeles

On Sunday night the Kings scored twice on 40 shots and still managed to bump their shooting percentage on the season. For the season they are still scoring on less than four percent of their shots. That has contributed greatly to their 93 PDO on the season, suggesting that they have been very unlucky on the season to date. It is also possible that they have been very bad as their goaltenders, read Jonathan Quick, have posted a sub 90% save percentage thus far. The young season in a bottle for the Kings is the their 4-1 loss to the Coyotes. In that game they outshot the Coyotes 41 to 22 but still managed to lose to a lottery contender. The good news is that they are thus far undefeated in one goal games which is a welcome change from last year. Assuming they score on more than four percent of their shots this season, a safe assumption, they should match their goal output from last season. It means that no one on this team is going to light the league on fire offensively. However, the Kings are still an elite defensive team. While Quick may no longer be elite but it will not take much for him to be better than the league average given the low number of shots he will face. The Kings are the epitome of the status quo, except they will almost certainly make the playoffs this year.

Colorado

Who knew it was possible for the Colorado Avalanche to be even worse than they were last year. They are already getting outshot by eight shots per game after getting outshot by five shots per game last year. The saving grace is that they are scoring 13% of their shots to start the season. They need to score on an astronomical number of their shots as they are taking fewer shots than ever before. They have fallen to a level just above the rate at which the Buffalo Sabres generated shots last year. It is difficult to suggest that there will be a huge turn around as their shots for have gone down in each of the previous four seasons as the shots they allow have sky-rocketed over the same period. Patrick Roy has not been around for all of those seasons but there is a clear trend during his tenure. At the rate the Avalanche are taking shots they will need to score on 10% of their shots this season just to score 200 goals. At their current shot rate, if they only score on nine percent of their shots they will score less 180 goals. That is in the neighbourhood of New Jersey and Carolina last season, two teams that combined to produce one 50 point player last season. That means that if you are banking on MacKinnon, Landeskog, Iginla, Duchene, Tanguay or Barrie on having a big season you could be in a lot of trouble.