Buy low on Pominville and other stock reports on Western Conference forwards.

In the third forward-centric installment features four teams: Los Angeles, Minnesota, Nashville and San Jose. These teams feature great examples of why scoring chances are an important factor when looking at a player’s shooting percentage. Scoring chances are a good indicator of the quality of shot a player is taking, whether distance or type of shot. If a player is getting a lot of shots from the slot, shots off the rush, shots off rebounds or cross-ice one timers it would validate them having a higher than average shooting percentage as those are higher percentage shots. Scoring chances are more accurately grouped within shot attempts as a blocked or missed shot can still be a scoring chance but the important thing is where and how players are getting their shots. Tyler Toffoli is a good example of this as he averages 2.5 shots per game but 3.3 scoring chances per game. A player with that shot rate who is getting more scoring chances than shots per game is a player who is getting lots of high percentage opportunities and thus the high shooting percentage starts to make a little more sense.

This section also includes Mike Ribeiro, Joe Thornton and Mikael Granlund, players who are very pass heavy with very low shot volumes. As important as shots are as an indicator of how many points a player is capable of generating it does not translate nearly as well for players with high assist to goal ratios. Last year in his passing project Ryan Stimson found that players who generate shots for others can be looked at based on the shots and type of shots they generate for their linemates. In these cases it is not the individual’s shots that matter but the shots that the player creates for others.

As always the recommendations made below are for this year only.

Los Angeles

Player	GP	TOI	PP TOI	G	A	PPP	SH%	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Dustin Brown	34	16:23	1:20	3	8	2	2.91	4.36	3.03	3.03	Hold
Jeff Carter	34	18:38	2:25	11	17	5	10.68	11.38	3.03	2.91	Hold
Marian Gaborik	34	15:16	1:51	7	6	1	7.69	6.67	2.68	3.21	Buy
Anze Kopitar	34	21:09	2:50	10	12	3	15.62	10.13	1.88	2.24	Hold
Milan Lucic	34	17:00	2:18	10	11	4	18.18	10.64	1.62	2.06	Soft Sell
Tanner Pearson	34	15:32	0:58	5	12	2	7.94	8.01	1.85	2.09	Hold
Nick Shore	34	13:32	0:25	2	4	2	4.00	3.33	1.47	1.32	Hold
Tyler Toffoli	34	17:25	2:02	14	11	6	15.73	11.11	2.62	3.38	Soft Sell
Jordan Nolan	33	8:48	0	0	2	0	0	3.81	0.76	0.94	Hold
Andy Andreoff	32	9:13	0:06	2	0	0	9.52	3.45	0.66	1.03	Hold
Trevor Lewis	27	15:13	0:18	3	2	0	4.41	3.81	2.52	2.56	Hold
Kyle Clifford	26	8:58	0:01	0	3	0	0	4.26	0.69	0.85	Hold
Jordan Weal	9	7:32	0:16	0	0	0	0	3.33	0.11	0.33	Waive
Michael Mersch	7	11:34	0:47	0	0	0	0	7.41	1.14	0.43	Waive

The Kings, as a team, are a shot generating machine, as eight King forwards average two or more shots per game. When Dustin Brown plays on the third line with Shore and Lewis they have a higher Corsi For per 60 minutes than Benn, Seguin and Sharp. Unlike the Stars’ line top the Kings’ line scores on an incredibly low percentage of their shots. Normally these low shooting percentages would be a sign that a player is due for a scoring uptick but Brown’s scoring has been trending down and Lewis has rarely scored on more than five percent of his shots. Milan Lucic is the flip side of that coin as he routinely has a higher shooting percentage so 18% is high but ridiculous for a guy with a career shooting percentage of 15%. Furthermore, with the way Lucic is racking up hits, just under four per game, and penalty minutes, just under one per game, he would have to go into a complete tailspin for his value to tank. Toffoli is the more interesting case of a King with an elevated shooting percentage because while his shot rate has remained constant for the last three years his scoring chance rate has rocketed up this year, making a higher shooting percentage somewhat valid.

Minnesota

Player	GP	TOI	PP TOI	G	A	PPP	SH%	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Charlie Coyle	34	15:31	0:49	8	9	2	14.81	10.87	1.59	1.71	Sell
Mikael Granlund	34	19:04	2:59	3	18	6	4.76	8.63	1.85	2.03	Hold
Mikko Koivu	34	19:51	3:25	8	21	9	13.56	11.93	1.74	2.38	Hold
Nino Niederreiter	34	15:49	1:49	7	8	1	12.5	10.07	1.65	2.12	Hold
Jason Pominville	34	17:43	2:49	5	14	5	5.49	9.92	2.68	2.06	Buy
Thomas Vanek	34	16:15	2:50	11	14	8	15.49	11.76	2.09	2.03	Hold
Jason Zucker	34	16:56	1:43	9	8	2	9.78	10.22	2.71	3.09	Buy
Chris Porter	33	9:22	0:02	2	2	0	9.09	6.90	0.67	0.73	Sell
Ryan Carter	32	11:23	0:05	3	2	0	10.00	6.54	0.94	0.84	Hold
Erik Haula	30	11:11	0:04	2	2	0	9.09	6.38	0.73	0.57	Sell
Zach Parise	26	18:59	2:08	11	9	7	11.83	7.31	3.58	4.08	Hold
Justin Fontaine	21	11:54	0:07	2	6	0	13.33	7.14	0.71	1.14	Hold
Jordan Schroeder	11	9:05	0:01	1	0	0	9.09	9.17	1.00	0.73	Sell
Jarret Stoll	34	13:18	0	1	2	0	3.60	6.90	0.85	0.73	Sell
Christoph Bertschy	3	7:17	0	0	0	0	0	8.33	1.00	0.33	Waive
Brett Bulmer	3	6:33	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.67	0.33	Waive
Kurtis Gabriel	3	4:43	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.33	0.33	Waive
Tuler Graovac	1	14:43	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.00	Waive
Michael Keranen	1	6:23	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	Waive

Every year it seems as if Zach Parise takes all the shots for the Wild and it is happening again this year as he is averaging 3.5 shots per game as well as more than four scoring chances per game. That means he is averaging almost a shot and a scoring chance more per game than his closest teammate. That is just the status quo, the surprising part is that Jason Zucker is second behind him doing his best Parise-lite imitation. Zucker is putting up close to three shots per game in less than 17 minutes per game including less than two minutes per game on the power play. Zucker is a victim of the Wild’s depth but makes for a great depth option. Mikael Granlund is an example of a player who can succeed despite very low shot totals. Granlund gets the vast majority of his points through primary assists and this year has an IPP of over 70%, meaning that he is directly creating shots for his linemates. The ability of Granlund to help others get shots, and sacrifice his own shots, is part of why Parise is able to generate so many shots. The fact that Granlund is so pass-oriented makes him susceptible to occasional blips in IPP such as last year when he fell to 50%. The Wild are a great analytics team as their bottom six has more skilled players than bangers but it negates much of their value in leagues that count peripheral stats.

Nashville

Player	GP	TOI	PP TOI	G	A	PPP	SH% 📢 advertisement:	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Filip Forsberg	35	19:17	2:59	9	15	11	8.57	10.08	3.00	3.29	Hold
Cody Hodgson	35	10:29	0:07	3	5	1	5.00	5.69	1.71	1.60	Hold
James Neal	35	18:53	2:56	13	9	7	12.15	10.95	3.06	3.23	Hold
Mike Ribeiro	35	18:05	2:35	4	17	4	13.79	8.56	0.83	0.97	Hold
Craig Smith	35	15:53	2:18	7	5	1	7.53	7.10	2.66	2.57	Buy
Calle Jarnkrok	34	15:50	1:13	6	6	3	10.71	8.19	1.65	1.53	Hold
Colin Wilson	30	15:30	2:19	2	10	1	3.39	7.81	1.97	2.67	Buy
Eric Nystrom	27	11:40	0:02	5	0	0	26.32	5.88	0.70	0.67	Sell
Austin Watson	27	9:52	0:02	2	3	0	6.67	6.96	1.11	0.81	Hold
Paul Gaustad	26	12:26	0:05	0	2	0	0	6.25	0.85	0.54	Hold
Mike Fisher	24	18:49	2:35	5	2	2	14.71	8.73	1.42	1.75	Buy
Gabriel Bourque	22	12:25	0:13	1	3	0	4.00	8.18	1.04	1.18	Hold
Colton Sissons	19	10:01	0:06	1	1	0	8.33	8.89	0.63	0.58	Sell
Viktor Arvidsson	17	12:10	0:26	3	2	0	8.82	5.41	2.00	2.00	Hold
Miikka Salomaki	17	12:27	0:06	2	0	0	11.11	5.26	1.06	1.35	Sell
Cody Bass	2	7:17	0:00	0	0	0	0.00	0	1.50	0.50	Waive

Most teams have forward usage charts that bunch up in trios indicating lines that often get used together. The Predators on the other hand have two duos and three forwards seemingly without a concrete line. Forsberg and Neal get high offensive zone starts but face the best competition whereas Ribeiro and Smith get high offensive zone starts against mid-level competition. The thirds tend to be Fisher with Neal and Forsberg while Wilson plays often with Ribeiro and Smith but much less consistency than the aforementioned duos. The Predators can do that with the depth they possess in Jarnkrok and Arvidsson. Arvidsson particularly brings nice offensive depth to the Predators’ lineup averaging two shots in only 12 minutes per game. Some vacillation in the Predators forwards lines should be of much concern from game to game. Wilson and Smith have both taken steps back this year after taking big strides forwards last season. Both are averaging fewer shots and scoring chances per game hence the lower point totals for each. Both have 20 goal potential but need to up there shot rate.

San Jose

Player	GP	TOI	PP TOI	G	A	PPP	SH%	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Patrick Marleau	34	19:58	3:35	13	12	10	13.83	11.23	2.76	3.21	Hold
Joe Pavelski	34	20:12	3:38	18	18	15	18.00	11.63	2.94	3.65	Soft Sell
Joe Thornton	34	18:27	3:40	6	17	7	11.54	11.43	1.53	1.35	Buy
Tommy Wingels	34	14:54	1:08	3	6	2	4.69	6.06	1.88	1.91	Buy
Tomas Hertl	33	15:47	1:23	3	10	2	3.70	8.36	2.45	2.67	Buy
Chris Tierney	33	13:46	0:13	3	5	0	7.50	6.78	1.21	1.21	Hold
Joel Ward	32	17:52	2:23	10	13	6	17.86	10.86	1.75	2.00	Sell
Mike Brown	31	7:51	0:01	1	0	0	3.70	3.45	0.87	0.87	Hold
Matt Nieto	31	12:44	0:05	4	4	0	11.76	7.69	1.10	1.19	Hold
Joonas Donskoi	29	14:13	0:53	4	9	1	10.00	9.09	1.40	1.90	Hold
Melker Karlsson	19	15:43	1:07	3	1	0	7.89	7.20	2.00	2.63	Buy
Barclay Goodrow	14	10:40	0:04	0	3	0	0	8.47	0.50	0.43	Sell
Dainius Zubrus	13	12:42	0:00	1	3	0	8.33	9.46	0.92	1.00	Buy
Nikolay Goldobin	9	11:05	0:03	1	1	0	14.29	8.33	0.78	1.33	Waive
Micheal Haley	8	6:10	0:00	0	1	0	0	0	0.63	0.38	Waive
Bryan Lerg	6	8:53	0:00	0	0	0	0	5.88	0.67	0.33	Waive
Ben Smith	6	5:57	0:00	0	0	0	0	0	0.17	0.33	Waive
Logan Couture	5	15:08	3:16	0	2	1	0	7.55	1.80	1.80	Buy
Ryan Carpenter	1	8:05	0:00	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	Waive

Joe Thornton is the epitome of a player who succeeds in putting up significant point totals without taking a high volume of shots. Thornton is one of those players who makes those around him significantly better, just ask Devin Setoguchi and Jonathan Cheechoo. For Thornton a stat like IPP is more important than his shot rate as IPP indicates how involved he is in the offense and the scoring plays that occur with him on the ice. Furthermore, because of the type of game Thornton plays, a slower puck possession game, age is not nearly as much of a factor as it would be for others. Think Jagr on a level that is not top five ever to play the game. This season Thornton’s IPP is down around 50% from his normal levels of around 70%. The recent big beneficiary of playing on a line with Jumbo Joe has been Joe Pavelski. That is probably part of the reason that he has a higher scoring chance rate than shot rate. The third member of that line has often been Melker Karlsson which makes him a player to keep an eye on, although his value drops off a cliff if he gets removed from the line. Look for the return of Logan Couture to help a number of players as Patrick Marleau will be able to go back to the wing and talent will be further dispersed throughout the lineup, although it would be next to impossible to boost Joel Ward’s value any higher than it already is.

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 28 - 13:12	FLA	vs	MTL
Dec 28 - 16:12	ANA	vs	PHI
Dec 28 - 16:12	VAN	vs	SEA
Dec 28 - 16:12	L.A	vs	EDM
Dec 28 - 19:12	T.B	vs	NYR
Dec 28 - 19:12	CAR	vs	N.J
Dec 28 - 19:12	TOR	vs	WSH
Dec 28 - 19:12	WPG	vs	OTT
Dec 28 - 19:12	BOS	vs	CBJ
Dec 28 - 19:12	NYI	vs	PIT
Dec 28 - 22:12	S.J	vs	CGY