Looking Ahead: Week 16 (2015-16)
Mike Schmidt
2016-01-15
Ondrej Palat and the Lightning have a great upcoming schedule.
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their team’s upcoming schedule. Without further ado…
The Immediate Fix (Grab these guys and use them for the next several days)
Carl Soderberg, C/LW, Colorado (Available in 72 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Fun fact: Soderberg is on pace to exceed 50 points this year in his first season as a member of the Avalanche organization. The 30-year-old forward honed his craft in his native country of Sweden until he turned 25 and didn’t see regular action in the NHL until his age-28 campaign, but he’s proven himself to be a capable NHL player in his time in the league. Soderberg averaged 46 points per year as a member of the Boston Bruins before signing a deal with Colorado this past offseason, and now he’s taken his production to another level (thanks to being a factor on the power play and seeing an uptick in ice time). Soderberg lacks the upside of other viable waiver-wire options, but he’s a sneaky pickup for poolies looking to find some fantasy-relevant stats and take advantage of Colorado’s advantageous upcoming schedule.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Ondrej Palat, LW, Tampa Bay (Available in 49 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Given the season he put together in 2014-15, it’s a bit surprising to see Palat available in about as many Yahoo fantasy leagues as he’s owned in right now. After all, the Czech forward averaged 61 points over his first two full NHL campaigns. However, the combination of a nagging leg injury (one which caused Palat to be sidelined for nearly half his squad’s games thus far) and some team-wide offensive struggles have led to some disappointing returns for fantasy owners who invested in him this season. The latter circumstance is very much a problem for Palat, but the former one is no longer a concern. Palat is healthy and has been back for five games (through Thursday). He’s also seeing minutes in line with his career average and is taking more than three shots on goal per game. This is a strong two-way forward who has shown the ability to click with his teammates (especially Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov, obviously), and Palat’s season shooting percentage of .068 is way, way down from his career mark of .121. Bet on a bounceback sooner rather than later and buy low on this gifted winger.
The Odd Men Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Frederik Andersen, G, Anaheim (Owned in 53 percent of Yahoo leagues) – The opportunities to play just haven’t been there for Anderson as of late. He’s made just three appearances (and two starts) since Dec. 21. The 26-year-old netminder’s numbers have been solid (.915 save percentage and zero shutouts in 22 appearances in 2015-16), but teammate and fellow goaltender John Gibson’s have been better (.926 save percentage and four shutouts in 18 appearances this year). With those statistics in mind, it’s no surprise why Gibson is seeing the lion’s share of work between the pipes. This could change at any time, especially given the fact that the two Ducks goalies have combined for just 148 games played at the NHL level. Andersen should be considered nothing more than bench depth for poolies right now. While that could change if Gibson gets hurt or starts to struggle, there’s no telling if or when circumstances outside Andersen’s control elevate his value to that of a worthy starter in fantasy.
The Anchor (He’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Thomas Vanek, LW/RW, Minnesota (Owned in 65 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Owning Vanek in fantasy was a blast as recent as 2013-14, when the longtime NHL winger registered 68 points in 78 games for three teams. Now, it’s a bit of a chore. Vanek, who will turn 32 years of age in a matter of days, is no longer a great fantasy option. He’s not really even a good fantasy option. He’s more of an okay one. He posted a 52-point campaign a year ago, his first as a member of the Wild. This season Vanek is on pace for about 50 points again. He’s no longer a slam-dunk option for advantageous minutes on a Minnesota squad that has a fair amount of depth at the forward position, and it’s not like someone his age can expect things to get better with time. He can still help fantasy owners, but Vanek’s reputation far exceeds the production he’s able to provide at this point in his career.
By taking some time to analyze the upcoming NHL schedule, poolies can gain a significant and measurable edge over their opponents. Now let’s identify some teams that will help or hurt fantasy owners in the coming days.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
Tampa Bay – The Lightning have been a bit of a disappointment this year in fantasy and in real life, but some home cooking should be a cure for what ails this squad in the short term. Starting Friday, Jan. 15, Tampa Bay will play five of six games at home to close out the month.
Ottawa – This squad will have a ton of opportunity to produce for poolies in the second half of the month. Between Saturday, Jan. 16 and Tuesday, Jan. 26, Ottawa will play six games. The last three of those? All at home. Tee up any and all fantasy-relevant Sens right now. The volume will be there.
Colorado – The matchups aren’t the easiest, but this is a team that will play five games between Saturday, Jan. 16 and Saturday, Jan. 23.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
New York Islanders – From Friday, Jan. 15 through Thursday, Jan. 22, the Isles play just one time. Consider what was just written about Colorado. Yeah… Employing Islanders will not pay dividends right now.
Minnesota – This team is slated to see a fair amount of action over the course of the final couple of weeks of January. Unfortunately, four of Minnesota’s last five games of the month will be on the road. Who will host the Wild? Anaheim, Nashville, Los Angeles and San Jose. PLENTY of teams will have it easier than Zach Parise and Co. during this same stretch of time.
Anaheim – Consider this squad’s schedule in the second half of January:
- Starting Friday, Jan 15, the Ducks will play three straight games at home… against Dallas, Los Angeles and Minnesota.
- After that, Anaheim will close out the month with three straight road contests… at Washington, Detroit and Boston.
Yikes.
Friday, January 15 to Thursday, January 21 |
Best Bets |
Tampa Bay 4.20 – four games – all at home |
Buffalo 4.18 – four games – BOS, WAS, ARI and COL |
Boston 4.16 – four games – BUF, TOR, MTL and VAN |
Philadelphia 4.15 – four games – NYR, DET, TOR and PIT |
Pittsburgh 4.06 – four games – TBL, CAR, STL and PHI |
Steer Clear |
New York Islanders 1.10 – one game – VAN |
Florida 2.05 – two games – TBL and EDM |
Detroit 2.15 – two games – PHI and STL |
Nashville 2.74 – three games – MIN, CHI and WPG |
Montreal 2.81 – three games – two on road |
Saturday, January 16 to Friday, January 22 |
Best Bets |
Buffalo 4.29 – four games – WAS, ARI, COL and DET |
Philadelphia 4.15 – four games – NYR, DET, TOR and PIT |
Colorado 4.06 – four games – CBJ, WPG, BUF and STL |
Edmonton 4.04 – four games – CGY, FLA, TBL and DAL |
Ottawa 4.00 – four games – LAK, SJS, NJD and NYI |
Steer Clear |
New York Islanders 2.05 – two games – VAN and OTT |
Winnipeg 2.15 – two games – COL and NSH |
Minnesota 2.57 – three games – all on road |
Anaheim 2.69 – three games – LAK, MIN and WAS |
Nashville 2.74 – three games – MIN, CHI and WPG |
Sunday, January 17 to Saturday, January 23 |
Best Bets
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Tampa Bay 4.25 – four games – three at home |
Pittsburgh 4.21 – four games – three at home |
Detroit 4.14 – four games – three at home |
Philadelphia 4.11 – four games – DET, TOR, PIT and NYI |
Colorado 4.11 – four games – WPG, BUF, STL and DAL |
Steer Clear |
Calgary 2.00 – two games – both on road |
Minnesota 2.71 – three games – all on road |
Washington 2.84 – three games – NYR, CBJ and ANA |
Nashville 2.85 – three games – two on road |
New York Rangers 2.91 – three games – two on road |
Monday, January 18 to Sunday, January 24 |
Best Bets |
Los Angeles 4.18 – four games – DAL, MIN, ARI and SJS |
Ottawa 4.14 – four games – SJS, NJD, NYI and NYR |
Colorado 4.11 – four games – WPG, BUF, STL and DAL |
San Jose 4.03 – four games – three at home |
Pittsburgh 4.02 – four games – STL, PHI, VAN and WAS |
Steer Clear |
New York Islanders 2.11 – two games – OTT and PHI |
Montreal 2.14 – two games – BOS and TOR |
Minnesota 2.71 – three games – all on road |
Vancouver 2.76 – three games – all on road |
Anaheim 2.79 – three games – two on road |
Tuesday, January 19 to Monday, January 25 |
Best Bets |
New York Rangers 4.21 – four games – VAN, CAR, OTT and BUF |
Los Angeles 4.18 – four games – DAL, MIN, ARI and SJS |
Dallas 4.16 – four games – three at home |
Philadelphia 4.11 – four games – TOR, PIT, NYI and BOS |
Minnesota 3.97 – four games – ANA, LAK, SJS and ARI |
Steer Clear |
Florida 2.00 – two games – CHI and TBL |
Winnipeg 2.15 – two games – NSH and NJD |
Vancouver 2.76 – three games – all on road |
Anaheim 2.79 – three games – two on road |
Washington 2.84 – three games – CBJ, ANA and PIT |
Wednesday, January 20 to Tuesday, January 26 |
Best Bets |
Ottawa 4.30 – four games – three at home |
Pittsburgh 4.27 – four games – three at home |
Colorado 4.25 – four games – BUF, STL, DAL and SJS |
San Jose 4.13 – four games – three at home |
Boston 4.09 – four games – three at home |
Steer Clear |
Washington 1.89 – two games – ANA and PIT |
Tampa Bay 1.99 – two games – CHI and FLA |
Edmonton 2.00 – two games – DAL and NSH |
Vancouver 2.85 – three games – two on road |
New Jersey 2.86 – three games – two on road |
Thursday, January 21 to Wednesday, January 27 |
Best Bets |
Ottawa 4.30 – four games – three at home |
Pittsburgh 4.27 – four games – three at home |
Los Angeles 4.23 – four games – MIN, ARI, SJS and COL |
San Jose 4.13 – four games – three at home |
Boston 4.09 – four games – three at home |
Steer Clear |
St. Louis 1.90 – two games – both on road |
Edmonton 2.00 – two games – DAL and NSH |
Florida 2.85 – three games – all on road |
Vancouver 2.85 – three games – two on road |
New Jersey 2.86 – three games – two on road |