Cage Match: Digging deep into the numbers on Kyle Palmieri and Mathieu Perreault, and who is the better fantasy hockey own

This week’s battle (pitting Kyle Palmieri against Mathieu Perreault) comes to you courtesy of a thread in the DobberHockey Forums that I made note of while I was running the recent Cage Match Tournaments. Let this be a reminder – I’m always open to ideas for players to include in these matches, so let me know your suggestions in the comments.

Who should you hitch your fantasy wagon to – Palmieri or Perreault? Do either of these former Ducks teammates have 60+ point potential, or might one or both be in danger of seeing their production falter? You’ve come to the right place for answers – Cage Match starts now!

Career Path and Contract Status

Still two weeks shy of his 25th birthday, it seems like Palmieri has been in the NHL forever. And in part, that’s true, as he appeared in NHL action starting the year after he was drafted (26th overall in 2009). After his initial ten game cameo in 2010, Palmieri saw both his games played and production increase over his next three campaigns, followed by his scoring pace dropping slightly from 2012-13 (41 point full season pace) to 2013-14 (36 point full season pace).

Although he had injury woes in 2014-15 that limited him to only 57 games, Palmieri surpassed the point per every other game pace for the first time in his career (29 points). After being dealt to New Jersey in the 2015 offseason, Palmieri’s production has taken a leap, with him having already equaled his career high in points after only 43 games and besting his top single season goal output after only 35 contests.

Perreault, who just turned 28, took a longer road to the NHL, which isn’t entirely surprising given that he was picked 177th overall by the Caps in 2006. But like Palmieri, once Perreault tasted NHL action he improved with each campaign until, in his case, 2012-13. A 2013 offseason change of scenery courtesy of a trade to the Ducks led to Perrault posting a career best 43 points in 69 games while teammates with Palmieri, after which he opted to sign with the Jets. In Winnipeg, he’s played even better – producing at a 54 point full season pace in 2014-15 and on target for a similar output this season.

According to Cap Friendly, Perreault is in the second to last season of a deal that dings the cap at $3M per year and will leave him a UFA at its completion, while Palmieri is set to be an RFA this summer after his current deal (that has a tiny cap hit of $1.466M) expires.

Ice Time

This data was a surprise to me, both in terms of how little Ice Time both players had in 2012-13 and 2013-14, as well as the fact that neither is even averaging very much per game now. What it suggests is both players do well with the Ice Time they receive. And sure enough, of the 346 forwards who played at least 500 minutes at 5×5 in 2013-14, Perreault had the 14th highest points per 60 minutes, with all but one of the 13 players ahead of him having scored 70+ points in a season at least once in their career. And Palmieri was not too far behind at 29th overall.

What’s interesting is despite Perreault’s Ice Time increasing by well more than 2:30 per game in the past two seasons, his scoring only inched upward – from a 51 point full season pace in 2013-14 to a 53.6 point full season pace since then. Palmieri’s scoring jumped considerably this season; but that’s more in line with his Ice Time increase from 2013-14 to now, where his Total Ice Time jumped by nearly 50% and his PP Ice Time per game almost doubled.

Another key point is both players have scored at a 50+ point pace (Palmeiri this season, Perreault since 2013-14) despite never getting “top three” Ice Time. From that, the takeaway is there still could be room for further improvement in their outputs if they get even more Ice Time and/or more “first line” minutes, provided, of course, that neither has benefitted from unsustainable good luck.

Secondary Categories

Here’s more positive news for each player, as Perreault’s PP scoring increased with each passing season, while Palmieri has improved from zero PPP in 2013-14 (giving a better sense of why he fared so well at points per 60 minutes 5×5 that season) to more than one per every four games for 2015-16 so far. And seeing that their increases in PPP per season have come with increasing Ice Time and roles with their teams, it’s less likely their PP output has been influenced by unsustainable good luck. But we’ll check.

From a Hits standpoint, Palmieri is in an echelon above Perreault, who is still pretty decent in that and other categories. Interestingly, both players had seen their Hits total increase for two straight seasons, but this season are holding steady with 2014-15. Meanwhile, Perreault’s Blocked Shots rate has skyrocketed for 2015-16; but that might just be short term variance. Perreault’s SOG per game rate helps explain why his production has failed to increase in proportion to his Ice Time rising, while in addition to his Ice Time gains, Palmieri has upped his SOG rate by roughly 20% since 2013-14.

Luck-Based Metrics

Perreault has a “N/A” entry for 5×4 IPP in 2012-13 because he didn’t meet the 50 minute minimum for it to be charted.

Palmieri’s 2015-16 data should make poolies pump the brakes. Not only are his IPPs above 160, which is rare even for the most elite centermen (let alone wingers on the “second line”), but his Shooting % is also a good bit above his 12.0% career rate and his OZ% is the lowest it’s been among all four of these seasons. The good news is to the extent good luck is smiling upon him in IPP and that he’s defying the odds for Shooting % and scoring rate for a sub-50% OZ%, we have to keep in mind he’s doing all this with still low Ice Times. If he continues to see his Ice Time rise – say to 19:00 Total and close to 3:00 on the PP – that should offset luck-based gains he might’ve made. But when all is said and done, this means Palmieri might project to only 60-65 point upside, rather than having a ceiling of 70+ if this season’s totals had not been influenced by good luck as much as they apparently have.

Here too we get some explanation for Perreault’s failure to improve his production despite added Ice Time over the past two seasons. First and foremost, his career Shooting % is 15.2%, so his 9.0% this year is quite low. So low, in fact, that had it been merely average he’d have five more goals at this point, and, with that, would project to a 62 point scoring pace. Mystery solved, especially since Perreault’s IPPs this season are fairly close to 2014-15 levels.

Who Wins?

Although Palmieri’s contact is up this summer, he’s an RFA, not a UFA and thus all but assured to stay in New Jersey. While that should cement his top six status, it’s not clear whether he’ll have enough talent around him to help prop up his numbers. After all, New Jersey yet again sits in the bottom three in goals scored for this season. Plus, there’s not much help on the horizon, with the team having only three of the top 215 prospects. There’s also concern Palmieri’s improved production for 2015-16 has been too heavily influenced by unsustainable good luck, plus the fact that he’s never previously come close to that production level. As a result, poolies can’t help but worry that Palmieri isn’t as “for real” as his current scoring level might suggest.

On the other hand, Perreault’s ability to produce at a 50+ point pace not only for three seasons, but for two different teams, bodes very well for his future. So does the fact that he’d be above a 60 point pace this season if he was just shooting at his career percentage; and that’s not even factoring in the still more added scoring if he was to see his SOG per game rate rise back above two like it was last season. Moreover, given the likely amount of money Perreault will receive on a UFA deal after next season, he should be poised to see an increase in his Ice Time as well as his role with whatever team inks him to a new deal.

Both players are Band-Aid Boys. But although that’s noteworthy (particularly since neither one has missed time this season), it affects them both equally.

In one-year leagues, Perreault wins since he’s more likely to see a boost in production for the remainder of 2015-16. Meanwhile, Palmieri has benefitted from at least some unsustainable good luck this season, suggesting his second half might not be as productive, as foreshadowed by his current stretch of three points in his last nine games.

For keeper leagues, although Palmieri is younger (25 on February 1st vs. Perreault turning 28 a couple of weeks ago), I still give the edge to Perreault. Not only has Perreault achieved a 50+ point scoring pace for three straight seasons and on two different teams, but he also could see that jump to 65+ with a rebound in Shooting % and SOG, as well as the added Ice Time that should come once he signs a new UFA deal. For Palmieri, it’s simply not clear – at least not as yet – that he’s the type of player who can truly make the leap, especially if he’s stuck on New Jersey, which looks poised to remain an offensively-challenged hockey club for the foreseeable future.