Top 10 ‘sell-high’ players (2015-16)

Tom Collins

2016-02-15

The 10 players who would give you the most return right now in a fantasy deal. Sell high!

We are just a couple of weeks away from the NHL trade deadline. That means most fantasy leagues will also have their own trade deadlines within the few weeks. This is when pools are won and lost, both this year and next. Last year, all 10 guys I recommended trading high have all had some sort of setback this year. You're laughing now if you were able to trade some of these guys then at high values.

A lot of this year's list has to do with trust. Do you trust these players to continue to play top minutes? Do you trust they will always have great linemates? Do you trust they can stay healthy? If the answer to any of these are no, then it's time to start working the phone lines. Keep in mind I'm not advocating that you need to trade all these guys. I'm just saying their value will never be higher. You obviously hold onto the players on this list if you're in contention.

Here are the top 10 sell-high players.

 

10. Mike Hoffman

Hoffman not only leads the Sens in scoring (and is the team's best offensive threat aside from Erik Karlsson), he's fourth in the league among left wingers with 24 goals. He'd be on pace for 37 goals in an 82-game season. If you don't think Hoffman is going to be a 40-goal scorer, then now is the best time to trade him. Especially in cap leagues as he's due for a huge pay raise this offseason.

 

9. Brent Burns

Burns is currently on pace for 73 points and is second in the league for points by a defenseman. But he shouldn't be considered a 70-point defenseman as I doubt he will ever come close to these numbers again. The thing that worries me most about Burns is what happens to the Sharks once they lose some of their veterans. The safe money would be on Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton not being Sharks after the 2016-17 season, if not before. What happens to Burns once some of this linemates are gone?

 

8. Artemi Panarin

There should be some concern for Panarin just because of who he plays with. It's never guaranteed that two players will always be linemates. Just look at this season. Anaheim split up Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry. Dallas split up Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. Panarin isn't a superstar. He's not guaranteed a top-six role or prime power play time if he ever starts slumping. And there's still the dreaded sophomore slump to think about. It hit Mark Stone and Filip Forsberg this year, and Nathan MacKinnon last year. Panarin won't necessarily be immune to it.

 

7. Leon Draisaitl

The time to sell high on Draisaitl was just before Connor McDavid returned to the Oilers lineup. From Christmas to the all-star break, Draisaitl played less than 16:30 in only one of 14 games. He played more than 20 minutes in eight of those games. In seven games since McDavid's return, Draisaitl has only had one game where he's been above 16:30. That goes a long way to explaining why he has no points in his last five games. But his overall stats still look excellent with 40 points in 47 games. There could still be a high market for him in some leagues where poolies don't yet realize Draisaitl's decline.

 

6. Evgeny Kuznetsov

Not only is Kuznetsov challenging for the team's lead in points (his 56 points lead the team, Nicklas Backstrom is second with 53 and Alex Ovechkin has 49), he's been doing it without the benefit of playing with the team's top guns. Kuznetsov has been mostly on the second line and playing with the likes of Justin Williams, Marcus Johansson, Jason Chimera and Andre Burakovsky. It's tough to give up on a young player. But can you realistically expect him to challenge for the team's points lead every season? He could be more like a Tyler Johnson instead of a Johnny Gaudreau.

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5. Roberto Luongo

You have to wary any time a player starts getting numbers that he hasn't seen in years. There's a very good chance Luongo gets to 30 wins, five shutouts, a .924 save percentage and a 2.29 GAA. We haven't seen these type of numbers out of him since the 2011-12 season. Florida is a great young team but it could take a while to get season-to-season consistency. Now would be the time to upgrade Luongo to a better long-term option in net.

 

4. Kris Letang

It is almost impossible to sell high on Letang. He's been so injury prone that any potential buyer will be hesitant. But he's been one of the league's best defensemen this season with 40 points in 44 games. If you are worried about his injury status and can unload him, there will never be a better opportunity to get a good return.

 

3. Blake Wheeler

Wheeler is on pace for 77 points. This would be the first time Wheeler has ever cracked the 70-point mark. He's this year's Hudler and Foligno. Wheeler should be treated as a 60-point guy at best. If you can trade him for a younger player with a better shot at 70 points each season, then you have to make that move.

 

2. Brad Marchand

Marchand has already tied his career high with 29 goals despite playing just 51 games so far. He sits at 44 points, just 12 off his career high. He's already tied as career high in power play goals with five and set a new high with seven power play points. And he has four shorthanded goals, second-most in the league.  Even more impressive, he's just 12 shots off a career high. He has points in 14 of his last 15 games and goals in eight straight. Setting career-highs in almost every offensive category? He's the perfect trade-high candidate.

 

1. Patrick Kane

Kane is the frontrunner for the Hart. That's precisely why you trade him now if you're out of contention and can get a great return. He's breaking every personal record that he has. But you shouldn't expect a 110-point pace again next season. And you can't trust him to stay healthy as he's missed 13 and 21 games in each of the last two seasons. 

 

9 Comments

  1. Ajay Da Costa 2016-02-15 at 11:24

    Tom’s top 10 sell-high players AKA Ajay’s actual fantasy team. Goddammit.

  2. Jarvis Reeves 2016-02-15 at 12:15

    Kuznetsov is the Capitals best player. So thats hog wash but the rest of the list looks good

    • amyn 2016-02-16 at 18:36

      Seriously if you really believe this you need to give your head a shake. Remember he benefited a lot of points to start the season with Backstrom out for 3 weeks.

      • Jarvis Reeves 2016-02-17 at 07:00

        Ice watched every game, if you think otherwise you havent been watching. Yes Ovi is the greatest goal scorer of all time perhaps, yes Backstorm is one of the best set up men in the league… Kuznetsov has been the best player on the ice 3 outta 4 games all year. And you made up the part where the FOUR games Backstrom missed had any affect on him being their best player. First line, 2nd line. 1st PP, 2nd PP doesnt matter. Hes that good

  3. chimp82x 2016-02-16 at 16:46

    Hudler 2014/15: 19.6 Sh%, 11.0 ESOISh%
    Foligno 2014/15: 17.0 Sh%, 10.4 ESOISh%
    Wheeler 2015/16: 9.3 Sh%, 8.2 ESOISh%

    Wheeler is nothing like last year’s Hudler or Foligno. Those two were lucky as hell. Wheeler’s production this season is legit and the Jets should improve over the next few years. Do not sell.

    • Tom Collins 2016-02-16 at 21:14

      A 29-year-old is having a career season on a non-playoff team with no real elite teammate. And you expect that to continue into his 30s? Why?

      Something to keep in mind: Wheeler’s career shooting percentage is 11.1 per cent, so he’s not that far off what he normally does.

      • Jeffrey Zon 2016-02-17 at 14:10

        might be good to look at 1st assist and 2nd assist figures to determine if a lucky change there is the cause of the points uptick. Calling Wheeler a “60-point guy at best” seems a tad harsh though, for a guy who has over 60 all three of the last full campaigns and 41 in 48 during the lockout year.

      • chimp82x 2016-02-17 at 15:39

        Exactly my point. If his career Sh% is 11.1 and he’s shot 9.3% this seasons then should improve, not regress. I agree that his age is a concern. The Jets have some great prospects and Wheeler will be out the door when they’re ready to take over top line duties. I don’t know why Wheeler is scoring at a 70+ pace, but it’s not due to luck. Could be due to deployment (ZS=53%; a 3-year high). Could be due to PP% (57%; career high). Could be TOI% (32%; career high). Could be linemates playing better. If those stay constant then, yes, I would expect him to repeat his production next season.

  4. Mabus 2016-02-17 at 15:11

    This looks like a group of people that you think will regress from their current production rates, not a list of people that are overvalued. Making an assumption that someone’s value is equal to their current production seems problematic to me.

    Maybe you should include a list of people you should be willing to accept in a deal would help provide clarity about how you think they are valued. A couple of favorable trades and a couple of lateral trades.

    I’ll use Kane as an example – there is no way anyone is getting Crosby for Kane straight up. I don’t think you’d get McDavid for him straight up either. Even Eberle owners might be wanting to hold tight. Ovechkin or Malkin – probably? Benn or Seguin – not sure? Tavares – also not sure? At the top end, people tend to fall in love with their guy, and they own him because they overvalue him. Kane’s been awesome, but nothing suggests to me that his value has changed significantly in the minds of other owners to say that his value greatly exceeds his expected future production.

    Saying Kuznetsov is overvalued is also an odd one to me. This might be the last chance you ever have to get him at a reasonable price. If you could get him for someone like Pavelski, Stamkos, or Kopitar, don’t you pull the trigger?

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