Looking Ahead: Week 23 (2015-16)

Mike Schmidt

2016-03-04

Nikolaj Ehlers makes a great pickup in your fantasy league to finish the season.

All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their team’s upcoming schedule. Without further ado…

 

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use them for the next several days)  

 

Tomas Hertl, C/LW, San Jose (Available in 70 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Inconsistency, thy name is Tomas Hertl. A banner (and injury-shortened) rookie campaign two years ago endeared the young Sharks forward to fantasy owners, but the former 17th overall pick hasn’t been able to match the kind of production he provided during the 2013-14 campaign. He’s still useful, though. Hertl is seeing action on the same line as Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski, and he’s put together a nice little stretch of play as of late (seven points in 10 games since Feb. 13). All of that almost makes up for the fact that he’s seeing less than 1:30 seconds of ice time per game on the power play this year. Is he a must-add player? No, but Hertl is a nice speculative pickup in the short term. Not many players with his offensive tools play with elite linemates and have a very advantageous schedule coming up. Act now. Worry about what to do with Hertl later.  

 

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

 

Nikolaj Ehlers, LW/RW, Winnipeg (Available in 85 percent of Yahoo leagues) Hockey Prospectus prospect guru Ryan Wagman called Ehlers a “tremendous skater and puck mover in perpetual motion” and ranked him 12th on his 2015 Top 100 Prospects List. Dobber ranked Ehlers fourth on his most recent Top 200 Prospect Forwards List. So… there’s quite a bit to like about the 20-year-old, who Winnipeg selected with the ninth overall selection in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft. The Jets are beginning to lean on Ehlers a little bit more, as evidenced by the fact that the young winger has seen at least 17 minutes and 33 seconds of ice time in all but one of his past 10 games. While he’s not exactly dominating the opposition, he’s showing some great signs of developing and honing his skills. Don’t overthink this one. Ehlers has the prospect pedigree. He’s seen a bump in ice time for a team that isn’t competing for anything this year. This is a player just starting to tap into his potential. Get on board.

 

The Odd Men Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

 

T.J. Oshie, C/RW, Washington (Owned in 91 percent of Yahoo leagues) – This St. Louis Blue-turned Washington Capital has done little for fantasy owners in the past month. He has just six points in his last 14 games (three of which came in his last game), which is a bit surprising because he’s not hurt and is playing on the same line as all-world forwards Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom. Oshie was putting up some really nice numbers earlier this season (partially due to some extremely favorable puck luck), so it’s likely just a cold streak. Fantasy owners would be wise to sit Oshie until his production comes around. He’s not the must-start guy who was putting up a career campaign a couple of months back. Oshie is more like the guy he’s always really been: an all-around contributor who can put up decent point totals and score effectively at even strength. No more, no less.

 

The Anchor (He’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

 

Semyon Varlamov, G, Colorado (Owned in 80 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Varlamov has been a (slightly) above-average netminder for his NHL career, and the Avs goaltender elevated his game well beyond that in the two seasons prior to this one (.927 save percentage in 2013-14 and .921 save percentage in 2014-15). This year, though, has been a bit of a letdown. Varlamov’s 2.79 goals-allowed-average is the second highest of his career, and his .912 save percentage ranks 29th among NHL goaltenders who have played in 20 or more games. To make matters worse, he’s posted a save percentage over .900 in just one of his last five appearances. The season is winding down, and it’s difficult to trust Varlamov right now. Poolies who own him have to use him, but expectations must be tempered.

 

By taking some time to analyze the upcoming NHL schedule, poolies can gain a significant and measurable edge over their opponents. Now let’s identify some teams that will help or hurt fantasy owners in the coming days.

 

Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

 

Winnipeg – The Jets opened the month of March with a five-game homestand, and three of their four games this week will take place in Winnipeg. There is a lot about this squad’s schedule in the short term and the long term, so don’t be afraid to lean on Dustin Byfuglien and Co. for the vast majority of this month.

 

Edmonton – The matchups aren’t too shabby for the Oilers in the coming week (at Columbus, versus San Jose, at Minnesota and versus Arizona). Other than the home tilt against the Sharks, there is nothing imposing to look ahead to for Edmonton.

 

San Jose – Games against Vancouver, Calgary, the aforementioned Oilers and New Jersey are on tap for this team between Saturday, March 5 and Thursday, March 10. Anyone worried the Sharks won’t get theirs this week? Didn’t think so…

 

Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

 

New Jersey – The Devils’ March schedule is WILDLY depressing. They play nine of 15 games on the road. Also, all but one of the five times New Jersey takes to the ice between Friday, March 4 and Monday, March 14 will count as away games for the Devils. Not that there are many universally fantasy-relevant Devils (Cory Schneider, Kyle Palmieri… and… ?), but this is something to keep in mind…

 

Washington – On Friday, March 4 the Capitals host a tough New York Rangers squad. Then, the following day, Washington commences with a four-game road trip. This is still an amazing team, but it’s not the week to expect great things from the Caps.


Colorado – Three games are on tap for the Avs in the coming week. Two of those games are tough: versus Nashville and versus Anaheim. After that is a four-game road trip. Pass on Colorado for now.

Friday, March 4 to Thursday, March 10

Best Bets

San Jose 4.21 – four games – VAN, CGY, EDM and NJD

Ottawa 4.19 – four games – TOR, DAL, CAR and FLA

Boston 3.99 – four games – WAS, FLA, TBL and CAR

Winnipeg 3.99 – four games – three at home

Edmonton 3.82 – four games – CBJ, WPG, SJS and MIN

Steer Clear

St. Louis 1.75 – two games – MIN and CHI

Chicago 2.06 – two games – DET and STL

Philadelphia 2.10 – two games – CBJ and TBL

Detroit 2.80 – three games – two on road

Anaheim 2.85 – three games – two on road

Saturday, March 5 to Friday, March 11

Best Bets

Calgary 4.32 – four games – three at home

Tampa Bay 4.30 – four games – three at home

San Jose 4.21 – four games – VAN, CGY, EDM and NJD

Ottawa 4.19 – four games – TOR, DAL, CAR and FLA

Arizona 4.15 – four games – FLA, COL, VAN and CGY

Steer Clear

New Jersey 2.04 – two games – PIT and SJS

New York Rangers 2.14 – two games – NYI and BUF

Washington 2.61 – three games – all on road

St. Louis 2.65 – three games – MIN, CHI and ANA

Dallas 2.66 – three games – two on road

Sunday, March 6 to Saturday, March 12

Best Bets

Ottawa 4.31 – four games – DAL, CAR, FLA and TOR

Winnipeg 4.30 – four games – three at home

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Edmonton 4.13 – four games – WPG, SJS, MIN and ARI

Boston 4.10 – four games – FLA, TBL, CAR and NYI

San Jose 4.05 – four games – CGY, EDM, NJD and WAS

Steer Clear

Columbus 2.15 – two games – DET and PIT

Washington 2.71 – three games – all on road

Nashville 2.85 – three games – all on road

Minnesota 2.86 – three games – STL, EDM and MTL

Anaheim 2.89 – three games – two on road

Monday, March 7 to Sunday, March 13

Best Bets

Toronto 4.25 – four games – BUF, NYI, OTT and DET

Tampa Bay 4.20 – four games – PHIx2, BOS and CBJ

Detroit 4.15 – four games – three at home

Boston 4.10 – four games – FLA, TBL, CAR and NYI

San Jose 4.05 – four games – CGY, EDM, NJD and WAS

Steer Clear

Minnesota 1.86 – two games – EDM and MTL

Chicago 1.90 – two games – both on road

New Jersey 1.90 – two games – both on road

Dallas 2.70 – three games – MTL, CHI and STL

Washington 2.71 – three games – all on road

Tuesday, March 8 to Monday, March 14

Best Bets

Edmonton 4.22 – four games – three at home

Winnipeg 4.20 – four games – NSH, DET, COL and VAN

New York Islanders 4.20 – four games – PIT, TOR, BOS and FLA

Detroit 4.15 – four games – three at home

Nashville 3.85 – four games – WPG, CGY, VAN and EDM

Steer Clear

Colorado 1.80 – four games – three at home

Minnesota 1.86 – two games – EDM and MTL

Washington 1.90 – two games – both on road

Philadelphia 2.00 – two games – both on road

Dallas 2.70 – three games – MTL, CHI and STL

Wednesday, March 9 to Tuesday, March 15

Best Bets

Detroit 4.25 – four games – three at home

New York Islanders 4.10 – four games – TOR, BOS, FLA and PIT

Toronto 4.10 – four games – NYI, OTT, DET and TBL

Los Angeles 3.95 – four games – WAS, NJD, CHI and DAL

Florida 3.92 – four games – OTT, PHI, NYI and MTL

Steer Clear

Colorado 1.80 – two games – ANA and WPG

Buffalo 1.81 – two games – MTL and CAR

New York Rangers 2.04 – two games – DET and PIT

Columbus 2.05 – two games – PIT and TBL

New Jersey 2.71 – three games – all on road

Thursday, March 10 to Wednesday, March 16

Best Bets

Montreal 4.36 – four games – three at home

Detroit 4.25 – four games – three at home

Winnipeg 4.15 – four games – DET, COL, VAN and CGY

Edmonton 4.06 – four games – three at home

Philadelphia 4.01 – four games – TBL, FLA, DET and CHI

Steer Clear

Colorado 1.90 – two games – both on road

Arizona 1.95 – two games – both on road

Nashville 2.00 – two games – both on road

Columbus 2.05 – two games – PIT and TBL

Washington 2.10 – two games – SJS and CAR

4 Comments

  1. Mabus 2016-03-05 at 01:41

    Wasn’ Ehlers injured and known to be out indefinitely before this article was posted?

  2. Mike Schmidt 2016-03-05 at 09:27

    I sent the article off Thursday evening, a little less than 24 hours before the news broke. I even felt good about the Ehlers call Friday morning when Laidlaw gave him a shout-out in that day’s Ramblings. As you can imagine, that feeling didn’t last very long.

  3. Chris 2016-03-06 at 17:12

    For Monday, March 7 to Sunday, March 13 you have DET in Best Bets (Detroit 4.15 – four games – three at home) and Steer Clear (Detroit 2.70 – three games – MTL, CHI and STL).

    I know its a free site and appreciate the effort, but if the facts are not correct we are just going over to a site like Daily facoff to get the correct info.

    • Dobber 2016-03-06 at 17:22

      Or you could just say “please fix”, that would be appropriate. That’s a typo – should have read “Dallas” but it auto-filled to Detroit, which wasn’t caught.

      Just like us, Daily Faceoff has the odd typo too. The difference is that unlike Daily Faceoff, we have more users (like you) and more writers to catch and fix quickly. You’re best off to stick with the best – me. Winning is more fun. ;)

      Fixed now.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11 CAR vs PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11 MTL vs CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11 BUF vs OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11 TOR vs BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11 NYI vs PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11 MIN vs L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11 STL vs T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11 WPG vs UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11 COL vs SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11 ANA vs VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11 S.J vs CBJ

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
ALEX LAFERRIERE L.A
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK
MARTIN NECAS CAR
TIMOTHY LILJEGREN S.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency L.A Players
12.0 ANDRE LEE ANZE KOPITAR ADRIAN KEMPE
10.4 TREVOR MOORE KEVIN FIALA PHILLIP DANAULT
5.3 AKIL THOMAS TREVOR LEWIS TANNER JEANNOT

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