Does Brayden Schenn's strong second half forbode a breakout next season?

The Philadelphia Flyers have had quite the season. They started slow off the mark, saw their team jumpstarted by a rookie defenseman, lost last season’s leading-scorer to a lengthy injury and have still managed to fight and claw their way into the playoff picture. A major reason for their success: Brayden Schenn.

Schenn’s season has seen equal twists and turns. The 24-year-old was coming off a career-high 47-point season and had found a somewhat unspectacular role as a strong middle six forward. Expectations had been lowered since being selected fifth overall in 2009 and being regarded as one the top prospects in all of hockey. It just didn’t seem like Schenn was going to find that extra offensive gear; and through nearly half the games this season, he was proving that theory true.

Schenn had managed just 15 points in 34 games as the calendar flipped over to 2016. He had even found himself as a healthy scratch in November, a tool first-year coach Dave Hakstol had hoped would spark the gritty Saskatoon native. Well, it wasn’t the scratching that lit a fire under Schenn, but perhaps a particularly strong New Years resolution.

Using Dobber’s Report Generator, we can see that since January 1, Schenn has been a dynamo at both ends of the rink. His 36 points in 36 games are tied for fifth most in the NHL during that span.

Top 10 Point Categories: January 1-Present

Points accumulated during all situational strengths.

Rank	Name	Pos	Age	Yrs	Team	GR	GP	EV	PP	SH	PPG	Total
1	CROSBY,SIDNEY	C		9	PIT	9	35	39	10	0	1.40	49
2	THORNTON,JOE	C		16	S.J	8	37	31	13	0	1.19	44
3	KUZNETSOV,EVGENY	C		0	WSH	9	35	31	9	0	1.14	40
4	KOPITAR,ANZE	C		8	L.A	8	35	26	12	1	1.11	39
5	SCHENN,BRAYDEN	C		5	PHI	8	36	22	14	0	1.00	36
6	LETANG,KRISTOPHER	D	28	8	PIT	9	34	23	11	2	1.06	36
7	KANE,PATRICK	R		7	CHI	8	35	25	11	0	1.03	36
8	KARLSSON,ERIK	D		0	CAR	8	37	25	9	0	0.92	34
9	GETZLAF,RYAN	C		9	ANA	8	35	23	9	1	0.94	33
10	BURNS,BRENT	D		10	S.J	8	37	21	10	1	0.86	32

It’s not just individual success at play here either, from October 8 – December 31 the Flyers held a record of 15-14-7. That type of mediocrity won’t be earning any playoff revenue for Ed Snider. However, from January 1 –March 23 they’ve played at a point pace of .640, earning a record of 20-10-6.

Schenn’s 17 points in the last 15 games have been remarkable and fantasy owners who have stuck it out with the former Brandon Wheat King through his half-point-per-game averages are soaking up elite production at the most opportune time: the fantasy playoffs.

Take a look at his quarterly output from Dobber’s Player Profile. The numbers paint a picture of a player who held some value in multi-cat leagues for his hits and blocks, to a player dominating the score sheet every night.

First Quarter Summary

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	HITS	PPG	PPP	SHG 📢 advertisement:	BLKS	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
18	5	2	7	0.39	32	-3	4	41	36	2	3	0	5	03:10	57.3	0.1	15:19	25.1

Second Quarter Summary

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	HITS	PPG	PPP	SHG	BLKS	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
19	4	10	14	0.74	60	2	11	44	55	2	3	0	6	02:57	61.2	0.0	16:59	27.7

Third Quarter Summary

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	HITS	PPG	PPP	SHG	BLKS	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
19	9	6	15	0.79	65	4	12	36	35	5	9	0	5	04:07	64.8	0.3	16:48	27.4

Fourth Quarter Summary

GP	G	A	P	PntPG	Pace	+/-	PIM	Shots	HITS	PPG	PPP	SHG	BLKS	PPTOI	%PP	%SH	TOI/G	%TOI
14	6	9	15	1.07	88	-1	4	34	38	1	3	0	9	04:15	62.6	0.4	18:27	30.4

So has Schenn all of a sudden become a point-per-game player who converts on 15.5 percent of his shots? The answer is no, and to expect this level of production to continue is setting yourself up for failure.

While Schenn seems to have found a home next to Claude Giroux on the top line and top power play unit (he’s seeing an average of 3:35 on the power play, which is good for almost a full minute more than his career average), he hasn’t managed to fire the puck on net with any more frequency than in previous years. He’s currently taken 155 shots on goal, pacing for 175 and right in the line with his past two seasons of 156 and 178 total shots. This is cause to expect a regression.

Through 72 games, Schenn’s 24 goals already represent a career-high, however this is a player who historically has converted on around 11 percent of his shots, so unless he begins to shoot the puck with more regularity, he’s going to hover around the 20-goal mark. His assist totals haven’t soared yet either, with his 27 thus far still a couple off his career-high mark of 29 set last season.

This great stretch of play could not have come at a better time for the Flyers playoff push as well as for Schenn’s bank account. With his contract expiring at years’ end, the restricted free agent will be looking for a sizable raise from his current $2.5 million cap hit. For fantasy owners, enjoy the points while they last and hopefully you can ride Schenn and the streaking Flyers to a championship (unless of course you’re playing me, then I hope you come up juuuuust short).

Looking forward to next season, Schenn has certainly increased his overall fantasy value, however expectations should still be tempered. Draft him for 20 goals and 50 points and be delighted with anymore extra.

Projected point-per-game-pace for the remaining schedule: 0.85 – 0.95

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